THT Dartboard: August 19, 2007
by Matthew CarruthAugust 19, 2007
Dartboard
Divisional Picture
Dartboard
Welcome to The Hardball Times Dartboard, our weekly attempt to rank all the teams in baseball. The Dartboard Factor is how many wins a team would be expected to have at the end of the season if it played a neutral schedule. Next to that, you'll find the Dartboard Factor from the previous week. An explanation of our method can be found here.
#1 Boston Red Sox (Dartboard Factor = 99, 100): Boston drops under 100 for the first time awhile as their lineup struggles. Aside from Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez there's a whole lot of meh in that lineup.
#2 Los Angeles Angels (Dartboard Factor = 93, 93): Juan Rivera should be back in about two weeks, which is much needed news for the Angels who are always in need of extra offense.
#3 New York Yankees (Dartboard Factor = 92, 93): This is why you never give up on a team that has that much inherent talent on the roster. The bullpen could be their problem down the stretch though as Marino Rivera is already showing some fatigue signs and Joe Torre tends to ride his good relievers hard towards the end.
#4 New York Mets (Dartboard Factor = 91, 90): Lastins Milledge looks a lot more like he belongs in the big leagues this time around and Carlos Delgado is slated to return to the lineup soon after missing a handful of games.
#5 Seattle Mariners (Dartboard Factor = 89, 89): The Mariners complete the sweep over the White Sox, maintaining their slim half game lead over the Yankees for the wildcard. Seattle goes off to face Minnesota next and are thanking their stars that they miss Johan
#6 Detroit Tigers (Dartboard Factor = 89, 89): Still faltering, and in the midst of a brutal stretch of games, I don't see much playoff for the Tigers unless they manage to catch Cleveland, a feat that I think not probable to occur.
#7 Cleveland Indians (Dartboard Factor = 89, 89): Unable to capitalize on the Tigers going just 4-6 over their past ten, the Indians nevertheless still hole a 1.5 game lead heading into a showdown with the Tigers.
#8 San Diego Padres (Dartboard Factor = 87, 86): Jake Peavy continues to lead the NL in strikeouts with 11 more on Friday and the Padres are expecting Milton Bradley to begin to get more playing time as his hamstring seems improved.
#9 Arizona Diamondbacks (Dartboard Factor = 87, 86): Join in the fun of rooting for a team to make the playoffs with more runs allowed than scored. Has it ever happened before?
#10 Philadelphia Phillies (Dartboard Factor = 86, 85): The Phillies are just 8-19 in one-run games while the Mets, five games ahead of them, are 16-8. Will regression in that regard be enough to get the Phillies on top of the division?
#11 Atlanta Braves (Dartboard Factor = 86, 87): Unlike the Phillies, the Braves do not have an extreme luck statistic pointing towards regression upwards. The Braves actually have performed pretty much exactly as you would expect. They'll just have to get better over the last six weeks or hope the teams ahead of them play worse.
#12 Toronto Blue Jays (Dartboard Factor = 85, 83): If only they could avoid playing on the road. The Jays are 15 games over .500 at home, but are 12 below on the road, the biggest difference in the league.
#13 Los Angeles Dodgers (Dartboard Factor = 84, 85): They finally arrested their slide but still stand 6.5 back of the Diamondbacks for the division lead and also have San Diego, a more talented team in their way. The wildcard however is still wide open and the Dodgers are still a relevant piece of that discussion along with...
#14 Colorado Rockies (Dartboard Factor = 83, 84): If the Rockies can figure out a way to win some games on the road and if Brian Fuentes can return to form and get back into the closer role, the Rockies are certainly talented enough to roll off a winning streak and currently sit just three games out of the wildcard.
#15 Chicago Cubs (Dartboard Factor = 82, 83): Carlos Zambrano gets a five/six year contract at nearly $20 million per season? Well it's less bad than the Zito contract so that's something I guess, but boy are the Cubs likely going to be hurting in four years with Soriano and Zambrano tied up in albatross contracts.
#16 Oakland Athletics (Dartboard Factor = 82, 81): So long Dan Meyer, it wasn't an auspicious first start. It's clear that Beane completely won the Mark Mulder trade, but lost the Tim Hudson trade. If you evaluate them together, how would the A's come out?
#17 Minnesota Twins (Dartboard Factor = 82, 82): Shoutout to Johan Santana who struck out 17 Rangers today without walking a man. Considering what Barry Zito and Carlos Zambrano got in the past 8 months, your contract may be akin to the Daisuke Matsuzaka bid. We all know it's going to be big. It may yet still shock everyone. $200 million anyone?
#18 Milwaukee Brewers (Dartboard Factor = 80, 84): Blue Jays, meet the Brewers, your NL twin. Like the Jays, the Brewers are 15 games over .500 at home, but do the Jays one better and are 13 games under .500 on the road. The Brewers have also now allowed more runs than they've scored like four of the five other NL Central teams. Can we has division realignment now?
#19 Baltimore Orioles (Dartboard Factor = 80, 79): The Orioles are an abysmal 10-24 in one-run games. They will forever be example A in the manual of how not to build a successful bullpen.
#20 St Louis Cardinals (Dartboard Factor = 77, 74): A 7-3 stretch combined with the collapse of the Brewers have the Cardinals lurking on the fringe of the NL Central race, four games back, despite being four games under .500. After the Central last year and the West the year before, is it really fair that the NL gets to send four teams to the playoffs? Shouldn't the AL get at least five spots?
#21 Florida Marlins (Dartboard Factor = 75, 76): Behold the rare team that is better on the road (29-31) than at home (27-37), though I guess when they're home they have to face the presence of David Samson and that would depress me too.
#22 Texas Rangers (Dartboard Factor = 73, 72): The Eric Gagne trade looks better and better with each passing game that Gagne blows for the Red Sox. I am vocally critical of most of Jon Daniels' moves so here's a tip of the cap to one that so far has worked out well.
#23 Chicago White Sox (Dartboard Factor = 72, 75): Losers of eight straight, White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen said he recently looked at the numbers and was shocked how awful his team was. Nobody else was surprised, either at the White Sox awfulness nor Guillen's failure to notice until now.
#24 Kansas City Royals (Dartboard Factor = 72, 72): Hooray for the Royals who pass the sinking stone that is the White Sox for fourth place in the AL Central.
#25 San Francisco Giants (Dartboard Factor = 71, 71): Barry Zito, 4.88 ERA, 4.98 FIP, 5.02 xFIP, 1.47 strikeouts per walk. Enjoy the next six or seven years of that one.
#26 Cincinnati Reds (Dartboard Factor = 71, 70): Josh Hamilton is back from the DL and smacked his 15th homerun in a pinch-hit effort. Why is he not starting every game with the Reds headed nowhere is beyond me.
#27 Houston Astros (Dartboard Factor = 71, 69): Is Craig Biggio going to get the bit-by-pitch record? He's just a few away and I wonder what happens on the last day of the season, and of Biggio's career, if he's tied or one behind the record. Could we see an intentional hit-by-pitch that everyone applauds?
#28 Washington Nationals (Dartboard Factor = 71, 71): Shawn Hill is back and didn't miss a beat tossing 6 shutout innings in his return and yielding just a lone hit. Perhaps the Nationals could combine Hill and fellow injury-prone hurler John Patterson into one legitimate healthy ace.
#29 Pittsburgh Pirates (Dartboard Factor = 67, 66): The Pirates need to go 30-10 their final 40 games in order to avoid their 15th consecutive losing season. Something tells me that they're probably going to fall a bit short.
#30 Tampa Bay Devil Rays (Dartboard Factor = 64, 65): Wouldn't it be great for everyone except Twins fans if the Rays ponied up for Johan Santana if/when he hits the free agent market after next season? The Rays have an emerging group of young stars, all cheap and could afford to throw megabucks at somebody like Johan. A move like that could completely change the face of the AL East.
Divisional Picture
The playoff picture takes the above ranking and reforms the teams back into their leagues and divisions including the wild card. This is in no ways a prediction, this is an assessment of how teams have played so far this season, not how each team is going to play.
AL EAST
Red Sox - 99
Yankees - 92
Blue Jays - 85
Orioles - 80
Devil Rays - 64
AL CENTRAL
Tigers - 89
Indians - 89
Twins - 82
White Sox - 72
Royals - 72
AL WEST
Angels - 93
Mariners - 89
Athletics - 82
Rangers - 73
AL WILD CARD
Yankees - 92
Mariners - 89
Indians - 89
NL EAST
Mets - 91
Phillies - 86
Braves - 86
Marlins - 75
Nationals - 71
NL CENTRAL
Cubs - 82
Brewers - 80
Cardinals - 77
Reds - 71
Astros - 71
Pirates - 67
NL WEST
Padres - 87
Diamondbacks - 87
Dodgers - 84
Rockies - 83
Giants - 71
NL WILD CARD
Diamondbacks - 87
Phillies - 86
Braves - 86
Dodgers - 84
Rockies - 83
Matthew Carruth is an editor for The Hardball Times. He welcomes any and all sorts of communication at his email.