February 10, 2010
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THT Dartboard: Week Fourteenby Matthew CarruthJuly 13, 2009 Dartboard Divisional Picture DartboardWelcome to The Hardball Times Dartboard, our weekly attempt to rank all the teams in baseball. The Dartboard Factor is how many wins a team would be expected to have at the end of the season if it played a neutral schedule. Next to that, you'll find the Dartboard Factor from the previous week. An explanation of our method can be found here. Last week's experiment with statistical snapshots of each time was met with some positive reviews, so it returns again this week. I am still unsure as to how much staying power this sort of insight provides, so please let me know if you have an opinion one way or another. For hitters, the standard triple slash stats are shown first, followed by a comparison of the strikeouts and free passes. Free passes here includes hit by pitches and excludes intentional walks. Lastly, a link to wOBA if you are not familiar with it. The stats for the pitchers should then be self-explanatory. #1 Los Angeles Dodgers (Dartboard Factor = 103, 101): Hitters: .326/.411/.556, 41:35 K/FP, .420 wOBA Starters: 33.0 IP, 4 HR, 23:14 K/FP, 43% GB, 4.65 FIP Relievers: 24.0 IP, 1 HR, 13:12 K/FP, 41% GB, 4.16 FIP #2 New York Yankees (Dartboard Factor = 96, 95): Hitters: .324/.405/.504, 51:36 K/FP, .405 wOBA Starters: 35.0 IP, 8 HR, 16:16 K/FP, 39% GB, 6.63 FIP Relievers: 26.0 IP, 3 HR, 24:8 K/FP, 45% GB, 3.78 FIP #3 Boston Red Sox (Dartboard Factor = 96, 96): Hitters: .237/.342/.475, 55:36 K/FP, .362 wOBA Starters: 43.3 IP, 1 HR, 40:11 K/FP, 47% GB, 2.41 FIP Relievers: 19.7 IP, 4 HR, 26:5 K/FP, 44% GB, 3.96 FIP #4 Tampa Bay Rays (Dartboard Factor = 93, 93): Hitters: .249/.343/.376, 53:30 K/FP, .325 wOBA Starters: 39.7 IP, 3 HR, 35:13 K/FP, 37% GB, 3.40 FIP Relievers: 15.3 IP, 1 HR, 14:3 K/FP, 37% GB, 2.81 FIP #5 Los Angeles Angels (Dartboard Factor = 91, 90): Hitters: .320/.389/.515, 30:25 K/FP, .399 wOBA Starters: 32.0 IP, 10 HR, 33:10 K/FP, 36% GB, 6.14 FIP Relievers: 22.0 IP, 5 HR, 21:7 K/FP, 38% GB, 5.20 FIP #6 Texas Rangers (Dartboard Factor = 89, 88): Hitters: .246/.305/.419, 51:22 K/FP, .320 wOBA Starters: 39.3 IP, 4 HR, 18:15 K/FP, 43% GB, 4.75 FIP Relievers: 20.7 IP, 2 HR, 16:9 K/FP, 52% GB, 4.21 FIP #7 Colorado Rockies (Dartboard Factor = 87, 87): Hitters: .265/.337/.443, 48:26 K/FP, .361 wOBA Starters: 44.0 IP, 3 HR, 34:17 K/FP, 56% GB, 3.70 FIP Relievers: 19.0 IP, 0 HR, 14:5 K/FP, 49% GB, 2.52 FIP #8 St Louis Cardinals (Dartboard Factor = 86, 83): Hitters: .284/.377/.441, 39:33 K/FP, .362 wOBA Starters: 39.0 IP, 2 HR, 31:13 K/FP, 57% GB, 3.28 FIP Relievers: 13.0 IP, 0 HR, 9:7 K/FP, 53% GB, 3.43 FIP #9 San Francisco Giants (Dartboard Factor = 86, 84): Hitters: .231/.266/.389, 50:11 K/FP, .287 wOBA Starters: 41.0 IP, 3 HR, 38:12 K/FP, 35% GB, 3.18 FIP Relievers: 22.0 IP, 1 HR, 21:5 K/FP, 59% GB, 2.56 FIP #10 Seattle Mariners (Dartboard Factor = 85, 85): Hitters: .242/.314/.396, 47:25 K/FP, .320 wOBA Starters: 44.0 IP, 5 HR, 34:17 K/FP, 39% GB, 4.29 FIP Relievers: 18.0 IP, 2 HR, 11:9 K/FP, 57% GB, 4.92 FIP #11 Toronto Blue Jays (Dartboard Factor = 84, 86): Hitters: .264/.307/.398, 47:17 K/FP, .312 wOBA Starters: 40.0 IP, 4 HR, 36:21 K/FP, 41% GB, 4.28 FIP Relievers: 24.7 IP, 3 HR, 22:15 K/FP, 39% GB, 4.82 FIP #12 Minnesota Twins (Dartboard Factor = 84, 86): Hitters: .244/.320/.371, 38:22 K/FP, .318 wOBA Starters: 33.0 IP, 2 HR, 19:11 K/FP, 46% GB, 3.84 FIP Relievers: 21.0 IP, 0 HR, 11:11 K/FP, 43% GB, 3.72 FIP #13 Philadelphia Phillies (Dartboard Factor = 84, 79): Hitters: .308/.401/.549, 51:38 K/FP, .411 wOBA Starters: 44.7 IP, 9 HR, 32:7 K/FP, 39% GB, 4.86 FIP Relievers: 18.3 IP, 1 HR, 21:8 K/FP, 45% GB, 2.93 FIP #14 Detroit Tigers (Dartboard Factor = 84, 85): Hitters: .234/.310/.399, 47:21 K/FP, .315 wOBA Starters: 36.3 IP, 5 HR, 30:8 K/FP, 39% GB, 4.00 FIP Relievers: 16.7 IP, 1 HR, 18:9 K/FP, 48% GB, 3.44 FIP #15 Chicago White Sox (Dartboard Factor = 82, 83): Hitters: .297/.353/.448, 30:20 K/FP, .350 wOBA Starters: 31.3 IP, 6 HR, 27:10 K/FP, 47% GB, 4.93 FIP Relievers: 20.7 IP, 2 HR, 19:13 K/FP, 46% GB, 4.50 FIP #16 Milwaukee Brewers (Dartboard Factor = 81, 83): Hitters: .265/.338/.398, 43:23 K/FP, .328 wOBA Starters: 33.3 IP, 10 HR, 27:11 K/FP, 39% GB, 6.47 FIP Relievers: 20.7 IP, 2 HR, 18:6 K/FP, 41% GB, 3.59 FIP #17 Atlanta Braves (Dartboard Factor = 80, 80): Hitters: .256/.332/.388, 41:29 K/FP, .325 wOBA Starters: 41.3 IP, 5 HR, 20:12 K/FP, 47% GB, 4.68 FIP Relievers: 18.7 IP, 0 HR, 21:5 K/FP, 55% GB, 1.76 FIP #18 Chicago Cubs (Dartboard Factor = 80, 80): Hitters: .270/.316/.413, 33:14 K/FP, .321 wOBA Starters: 36.3 IP, 3 HR, 32:10 K/FP, 32% GB, 3.34 FIP Relievers: 17.7 IP, 1 HR, 9:10 K/FP, 43% GB, 4.61 FIP #19 Florida Marlins (Dartboard Factor = 79, 79): Hitters: .264/.317/.393, 46:19 K/FP, .322 wOBA Starters: 43.3 IP, 5 HR, 34:11 K/FP, 45% GB, 3.89 FIP Relievers: 15.7 IP, 0 HR, 13:3 K/FP, 39% GB, 2.12 FIP #20 New York Mets (Dartboard Factor = 77, 79): Hitters: .216/.282/.259, 34:17 K/FP, .257 wOBA Starters: 32.0 IP, 4 HR, 22:18 K/FP, 27% GB, 5.14 FIP Relievers: 21.0 IP, 2 HR, 15:13 K/FP, 52% GB, 4.87 FIP #21 Houston Astros (Dartboard Factor = 75, 73): Hitters: .324/.383/.496, 32:24 K/FP, .385 wOBA Starters: 43.0 IP, 2 HR, 32:12 K/FP, 58% GB, 3.15 FIP Relievers: 20.0 IP, 4 HR, 19:6 K/FP, 48% GB, 4.80 FIP #22 Cincinnati Reds (Dartboard Factor = 74, 77): Hitters: .216/.257/.360, 51:13 K/FP, .265 wOBA Starters: 36.0 IP, 7 HR, 26:13 K/FP, 39% GB, 5.37 FIP Relievers: 23.7 IP, 3 HR, 19:16 K/FP, 55% GB, 5.27 FIP #23 Arizona Diamondbacks (Dartboard Factor = 73, 70): Hitters: .281/.354/.465, 44:28 K/FP, .362 wOBA Starters: 47.7 IP, 3 HR, 43:12 K/FP, 47% GB, 2.97 FIP Relievers: 15.3 IP, 1 HR, 9:7 K/FP, 44% GB, 4.25 FIP #24 Oakland Athletics (Dartboard Factor = 72, 71): Hitters: .302/.349/.423, 46:17 K/FP, .346 wOBA Starters: 34.0 IP, 5 HR, 29:13 K/FP, 34% GB, 4.55 FIP Relievers: 17.0 IP, 1 HR, 22:9 K/FP, 35% GB, 2.96 FIP #25 Baltimore Orioles (Dartboard Factor = 72, 72): Hitters: .222/.299/.348, 43:23 K/FP, .304 wOBA Starters: 31.3 IP, 4 HR, 14:16 K/FP, 31% GB, 5.50 FIP Relievers: 23.7 IP, 0 HR, 23:5 K/FP, 66% GB, 1.89 FIP #26 Kansas City Royals (Dartboard Factor = 71, 71): Hitters: .278/.321/.444, 67:16 K/FP, .342 wOBA Starters: 39.7 IP, 9 HR, 37:20 K/FP, 42% GB, 5.79 FIP Relievers: 19.3 IP, 3 HR, 19:9 K/FP, 47% GB, 4.65 FIP #27 Pittsburgh Pirates (Dartboard Factor = 71, 74): #28 Cleveland Indians (Dartboard Factor = 70, 71): Hitters: .253/.332/.434, 46:24 K/FP, .338 wOBA Starters: 36.7 IP, 2 HR, 24:13 K/FP, 35% GB, 3.66 FIP Relievers: 14.3 IP, 6 HR, 13:8 K/FP, 36% GB, 8.51 FIP #29 San Diego Padres (Dartboard Factor = 67, 71): Hitters: .181/.240/.321, 49:15 K/FP, .266 wOBA Starters: 34.7 IP, 0 HR, 21:15 K/FP, 50% GB, 3.29 FIP Relievers: 14.7 IP, 2 HR, 10:8 K/FP, 44% GB, 5.24 FIP #30 Washington Nationals (Dartboard Factor = 57, 56): Hitters: .328/.373/.482, 47:19 K/FP, .374 wOBA Starters: 43.7 IP, 3 HR, 19:17 K/FP, 48% GB, 4.39 FIP Relievers: 15.0 IP, 2 HR, 16:11 K/FP, 47% GB, 5.00 FIP Divisional PictureThe playoff picture takes the above ranking and reforms the teams back into their leagues and divisions including the wild card. This is in no ways a prediction, this is an assessment of how teams have played so far this season, not how each team is going to play. AL EAST Yankees - 96 Red Sox - 96 Rays - 93 Blue Jays - 84 Orioles - 72 AL CENTRAL Twins - 84 Tigers - 84 White Sox - 82 Royals - 71 Indians - 70 AL WEST Angels - 91 Rangers - 89 Mariners - 85 Athletics - 72 NL EAST Phillies - 84 Braves - 80 Marlins - 79 Mets - 77 Nationals - 57 NL CENTRAL Cardinals - 86 Brewers - 81 Cubs - 80 Astros - 75 Reds - 74 Pirates - 71 NL WEST Dodgers - 103 Rockies - 87 Giants - 86 Diamondbacks - 73 Padres - 67 Matthew Carruth is an editor for The Hardball Times. He welcomes any and all sorts of communication at his email.
Dave Studeman said...
The statistical snapshots are pretty cool, Matthew. Just to be clear, the snapshots are based on the past week, while the dartboard rankings are based on the season to date, right? Posted 07/13 at 04:53 AM
Steve said...
The way this season is going it will provide a good snapshot of why the divisional system could use some tweaks. When the 4th place team in one division has the same record as the first place team in another you know there are problems. I truly feel bad for fans of Toronto and Tampa Bay. In any other division they would be perennial contenders. Posted 07/13 at 11:12 AM
Matthew Carruth said...
@YX The actual dartboards rankings are carried out to several decimal points. @Dave Yes, the snapshots are stats since the last dartboard while the rankings are for season to date Posted 07/13 at 01:01 PM
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I’m curious how Yankees got the tiebreaker considering they are 0-8 head-to-head.