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THT & Friends mock draft (Part 1: value picks)

by Nick Fleder
February 13, 2013



Nick can be reached for questions, comments, or concerns via email: nick.fleder AT gmail DOT com.

Comments

Kyle Brown said...

Is there a place on the site where I can view the whole draft?

Posted 02/13  at  09:06 AM
obsessivegiantscompulsive said...

I would chalk up Lincecum’s issues in 2012 to his horrendous handling of his conditioning.  After adding on 30 pounds in 2011 in order to huff up his velocity, he found that put too much weight on his legs, so he lost 30 pounds for 2012, and I don’t think that he had a professional help him with either.  I believe that left him in poor conditioning for 2012.

The 2012 season was a roller-coaster for him.  I think his conditioning issues led to his early struggles, which then started to mess with his confidence and continued to snow-ball.  The All-Star break gave him a chance to slow down and regroup, after which, he was the best pitcher for the Giants once again, after the ASB.  Then his conditioning issues kicked in again late in the season, as he just ran out of gas (I believe), as he suddenly went from good to horrible again, in his last few starts.

I view his move to the bullpen as less banishment and more acknowledgement that he was gassed.  As his performance in the pen showed, he can be dominating when he got enough rest.  His one poor start was with 3 days rest after his last relief outing, as well that it was a start, which requires a mindset of keeping something in reserve whereas as a reliever, you let it hang out until you get pulled.

Posted 02/13  at  03:41 PM
jimbo said...

@obsessive

Good summary. What an enigma though!

Listening to/watching some of his starts it wasn’t like he was bad from the first pitch. Often he’d dominate for a few innings, then get sloppy with some walks and seemed to unravel from there.

Since he had either really good or really bad innings, tells me there’s hope for fixing/minimizing the bad. Definitely a guy where season totals/sabermetrics can’t tell the whole story.

Posted 02/13  at  06:18 PM
Nick Fleder said...

@Kyle: I think this should work. Let me know if it doesn’t.

http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/draft.jsp?id=197830&view=all

Posted 02/13  at  09:47 PM
Ben Pritchett said...

As Jeff Gross pointed out, Karl DeVries analysis is hilarious.

Posted 02/13  at  10:00 PM
Kyle Brown said...

I really like the Jason Hammel pick, 21.7, he could be an excellent source of k’s this year and to get him so late is awesome.

Fister at 17.6 also seems like a steal.

Pedro Alvarez in round 8? I only like this because I am a bucs fan and I am looking for any and all sources for optimism.

Posted 02/13  at  11:39 PM
Mike said...

Blows my mind that Pedroia went that late. He shouldn’t be falling out of the 2nd round imo.

Posted 02/14  at  03:20 AM
obsessivegiantscompulsive said...

Here are some good articles about what I’m talking about regarding Lincecum.  I think people who pick him up in fantasy drafts on the down low will be pleasantly surprised.

http://blog.sfgate.com/giants/2013/02/13/tim-lincecum-more-than-a-hair-better-than-this-time-last-year/

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/giants/2013/02/13/spring-notes-lincecum-is-ahead-of-the-game-as-pitchers-get-back-to-work/

http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/andrew-baggarly/lincecum-i-definitely-feel-ahead-where-i-was-last-year

Jimbo, yes, but as you covered nicely, I think that covers his issues pretty well for 2012.  That, plus that he pitched well after ASB and well in the playoffs relieving with rest, he clearly still knows how to pitch, but it was that one bad stretch that killed him.  Happens to the best (and particularly the worst) of us.

Posted 02/14  at  12:26 PM
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