Under the Radar

I want to take a slightly different tack, a simpler approach. I just want to examine players who were very good in 2006, but who, for one reason or another, failed to meet the minumim requirement for plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Maybe some of these under-the-radar players are primed for a breakout, indeed perhaps their breakout has already begun.

Miniumum 502 Plate Appearances—Not

Who had the highest batting average in the National League this past season? If you answered "Freddy Sanchez," I gotcha. While Sanchez batted .344, Ryan Klesko went 3-for-4 on the season, for a batting average of .750. (Actually, several pitchers batted 1.000 on the year.) No, I'm not saying that anybody should be looking at Klesko's numbers and see a possible hidden gem. But, it's true that some players will put some pretty fair numbers without qualifying for the batting title.

Let's say you want to look up the best hitters in baseball in 2006. When you go to the stats section of The Hardball Times (or any other baseball site), you can generally decide to look at only qualified batters (i.e. with at least 502 plate appearances) or all batters, regardless of the number of plate appearances. The problem with the former is that you may miss some pretty good performances by batters who didn't qualify. The problem with looking at all batters is that you'll have to sift through a bunch of guys who went 3-4 or 1-1 on the year. It's not so easy to get a nice list of the best performances from players who had significant playing time, but failed to get 502 plate appearances.

Flying Under the Radar

In 2006, there were 29 batters who had between 200 and 500 plate appearances and achieved an OPS greater than .850, a very respectable number. Here's the full list:

+------------------+-----+------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Name             | pos | pa   | ba    | obp   | slg   | ops   |
+------------------+-----+------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Scott, Luke      | LF  |  249 | 0.336 | 0.426 | 0.621 | 1.047 |
| Jones, Chipper   | 3B  |  477 | 0.324 | 0.409 | 0.596 | 1.005 |
| Bonds, Barry     | LF  |  493 | 0.270 | 0.454 | 0.545 | 0.999 |
| Helms, Wes       | 1B  |  272 | 0.329 | 0.390 | 0.575 | 0.965 |
| McCann, Brian    | C   |  492 | 0.333 | 0.388 | 0.572 | 0.961 |
| Duncan, Chris    | LF  |  314 | 0.293 | 0.363 | 0.589 | 0.952 |
| Ross, Dave       | C   |  292 | 0.255 | 0.353 | 0.579 | 0.932 |
| Saenz, Olmedo    | 1B  |  204 | 0.296 | 0.363 | 0.564 | 0.927 |
| Bard, Josh       | C   |  282 | 0.333 | 0.404 | 0.522 | 0.926 |
| Alou, Moises     | RF  |  378 | 0.301 | 0.352 | 0.571 | 0.923 |
| Dellucci, David  | LF  |  301 | 0.292 | 0.369 | 0.530 | 0.899 |
| Norton, Greg     | DH  |  334 | 0.296 | 0.374 | 0.520 | 0.895 |
| Church, Ryan     | CF  |  227 | 0.276 | 0.366 | 0.526 | 0.891 |
| Matsui, Hideki   | LF  |  201 | 0.302 | 0.393 | 0.494 | 0.887 |
| Rivera, Juan     | LF  |  494 | 0.310 | 0.362 | 0.525 | 0.887 |
| Barrett, Michael | C   |  416 | 0.307 | 0.368 | 0.517 | 0.885 |
| Thames, Marcus   | LF  |  390 | 0.256 | 0.333 | 0.549 | 0.882 |
| Coste, Chris     | C   |  213 | 0.328 | 0.376 | 0.505 | 0.881 |
| German, Esteban  | 2B  |  325 | 0.326 | 0.422 | 0.459 | 0.880 |
| Teahen, Mark     | 3B  |  437 | 0.290 | 0.357 | 0.517 | 0.874 |
| Drew, Stephen    | SS  |  224 | 0.316 | 0.357 | 0.517 | 0.874 |
| Baldelli, Rocco  | CF  |  387 | 0.302 | 0.339 | 0.533 | 0.871 |
| Aurilia, Rich    | 3B  |  479 | 0.300 | 0.349 | 0.518 | 0.867 |
| Anderson, Marlon | 2B  |  308 | 0.297 | 0.354 | 0.513 | 0.866 |
| Rios, Alexis     | RF  |  498 | 0.302 | 0.349 | 0.516 | 0.865 |
| Spiezio, Scott   | 3B  |  320 | 0.272 | 0.366 | 0.496 | 0.862 |
| Kent, Jeff       | 2B  |  473 | 0.292 | 0.385 | 0.477 | 0.861 |
| Ensberg, Morgan  | 3B  |  495 | 0.235 | 0.396 | 0.463 | 0.858 |
| Gross, Gabe      | CF  |  249 | 0.274 | 0.382 | 0.476 | 0.857 |
+------------------+-----+------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

A second group consists of catchers: the rigors of catching prevent catchers from playing as many games as other position players. This means that both regular catchers and backups will often end up in the 200-500 plate appearance range. Of the catchers, it looks to me like only the numbers from McCann and Barrett look to be reliable: McCann, while he might not be truly a .960 OPS hitter, has a very good pedigree and minor league track record. Barrett has also established himself as a 800+ OPS guy over the last few seasons. The other three look very flukey to me. Bard, the 28-year-old Padre backstop, had a career line of .238/.289/.370 coming into 2006. Dave Ross is a similar case: 29 years old with a pre-2006 line of .217/.288/.406. Chris Coste was a 33-year-old rookie in 2006, and not many of those end up having any kind of career.

The third category of these players are the established platoon/pinch hitter guys. I put Saenz, Dellucci and Norton in this group. Saenz is something of a lefty-masher who pinch-hits often, but can also play first base and third base. Dellucci has been used as a platoon player throughout his career. His career OPS against right-handed pitching is 827, but only 587 against lefties. His 2006 OPS of 899 was not really that atypical. Greg Norton is a 33-year-old designated hitter (for Tampa Bay, this year), who put up his first above-average OPS numbers since 1999. Looks like his spike this year is mostly batting-average-driven, so I don't expect him to be an 850 OPS guy going forward.

Ok, let's trim our list down a bit, then, getting rid of these known and not terribly exciting (except for McCann, of course) players. We're down to 10 possibly interesting guys, who I now list in order of age:

+------------------+-----+------+------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Name             | pos | age  | pa   | ba    | obp   | slg   | ops   |
+------------------+-----+------+------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Drew, Stephen    | SS  |   23 |  224 | 0.316 | 0.357 | 0.517 | 0.874 |
| Baldelli, Rocco  | CF  |   24 |  387 | 0.302 | 0.339 | 0.533 | 0.871 |
| Teahen, Mark     | 3B  |   24 |  437 | 0.290 | 0.357 | 0.517 | 0.874 |
| Duncan, Chris    | LF  |   25 |  314 | 0.293 | 0.363 | 0.589 | 0.952 |
| Rios, Alexis     | RF  |   25 |  498 | 0.302 | 0.349 | 0.516 | 0.865 |
| Gross, Gabe      | CF  |   26 |  249 | 0.274 | 0.382 | 0.476 | 0.857 |
| Church, Ryan     | CF  |   27 |  227 | 0.276 | 0.366 | 0.526 | 0.891 |
| Rivera, Juan     | LF  |   28 |  494 | 0.310 | 0.362 | 0.525 | 0.887 |
| Scott, Luke      | LF  |   28 |  249 | 0.336 | 0.426 | 0.621 | 1.047 |
| German, Esteban  | 2B  |   28 |  325 | 0.326 | 0.422 | 0.459 | 0.880 |
| Thames, Marcus   | LF  |   29 |  390 | 0.256 | 0.333 | 0.549 | 0.882 |
+------------------+-----+------+------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

The Youngsters

Stephen Drew is 23 years old and was fabulous for the Diamondbacks in 2006. He's no secret, of course; he was one of the most highly-touted prospects in baseball coming into the 2006 season. Perhaps Baldelli should have been included in the "established, injured guys" group, but I just wanted to remind you that he was great when he played and he's still only 24. Mark Teahen is also only 24 and we have to take his big step forward in 2006 fairly seriously. His walk rate held steady from 2005, but both his batting average and isolated power took big jumps. Definitely worth keeping an eye on, although he has Alex Gordon nipping at his heels for the the Royals' third baseman gig.

Of the two 25-year-old corner outfielders on this list, Alex Rios seems to have the most upside. He had something of a roller-coaster season in 2006: on June 1 his OPS stood north of 1.000 and he looked like a budding superstar. The middle of his season, though, was marred by injury and ineffectiveness: from June through August he put up an anemic OPS of 661. He bounced back in September, though, with an OPS of 977. After that hot start, he's no secret of course, but he's worth monitoring in any case. Chris Duncan, a 25-year-old rookie, was called up to St. Louis in May and, playing mostly against right-handed pitching, put up surprisingly good numbers, ending up with a line of .293/.363/.589. His monthly splits were solid, his worst month being September with a 773 OPS. His skill set is not broad—he's basically a guy who mashes right-handers and doesn't do much else — I think he'll continue to be solid, but not much more than that.

Best Years of Their Lives?

As you move up in age, it must be said, the numbers tend to look more suspicious or, at least, less meaningful. Players tend to reach their peaks around 27 years of age, but guys who make big leaps forward right at 27-28, well, they tend to make big leaps backward in subsequent years.

That said, Juan Rivera's 2006 was impressive: he set career highs in plate appearances, batting average and slugging and missed his previous high in OBP by .002. There's a hint of fluke here, but maybe not. His .310 average this season was nearly matched by his .307 in 185 PAs in 2004. His isolated power (another career high) was just a tad better than his 2003 mark, and not too out-of-line with the rest of his career. His OPS+ for the last four years reads: 104, 118, 106 and 131. It's hard to say, of course, but Rivera looks pretty good to me. Whether Ryan Church is any good or not, it's hard to tell, since nobody is giving him much playing time. Church put up a very nice OPS+ of 120 as a part-time player in 2005. The Nats rewarded that performance by giving nine other players playing time in center field in 2006. Church hit even better this year, so I'm thinking the Nats will roll out a dozen or more center fielders in 2007.

Gabe Gross was used by Milwaukee as primarily and pinch-hitter, fourth outfielder—he was strictly platooned, with only one-tenth of his PAs coming against left-handed pitching. He's still young, and could grow up to be David Dellucci some day. Esteban German, you remember him, no? A's prospect circa 2001-2002? Well, he finally got more than 100 plate appearances in a season in 2006, and he made the most of them, to the tune of .326/.422/.459. German played every position except catcher and right field in 2006 (and shortstop, if you don't count the two innings he played there). Of course, he wasn't the regular anywhere, which is why he only managed 331 plate appearances. It's not clear the Royals have room for him, with Teahen and Grudzielanek fairly settled at third and second base.

Fluke Fishing

Luke Scott had a fabulous 2006 campaign. He finally got some decent playing time and he didn't blow it. After batting .188/.287/.557 in 89 plate appearances in 2005, Scott was Bondsian, or at least Ortizian, in his 249 plate appearances this season: .336/.426/.621. Scott's minor league credentials would not have predicted this showing—his 2006 performance veritably screams: SMALL SAMPLE SIZE. He'll regress and you can quote me on that.

I'm also pretty skeptical of Marcus Thames, who's near-.300 isolated power in 2006 looks pretty flukey to me. He did, though, put up similar rate stats in 2004 in 184 plate appearances, so that's something to consider. Still, at age 29, I'm betting that we've seen the best of Marcus Thames.

Caveat Emptor

Of course, we have to be very careful in interpreting a batting record with so few plate appearances. The experts say that to really zero in on a batter's true talent level, about three full seasons of plate appearances are needed. Still, 200 PAs are better than none, and 450 are better than 200. You just have to realize that there's a lot of uncertainty involved in interpreting the statistics of these players.

Perhaps we should think of this little exercise as a way of eliminating guys who probably aren't breaking out. The guys like Dave Ross and Greg Norton, Marcus Thames and Scott Spezio. Yes, they had fine seasons in 2006, but their established track record and/or age make a true breakout hard to believe in. Actually, one way of zooming in on the most interesting guys is to just take the youngest ones. They have the most upside for two reasons 1) great players tend to get started at a younger age and 2) the younger players have less of a track record, a track record that more often than not, tends to cast doubt on the recent excellent performance.

John Walsh dabbles in baseball analysis in his spare time. He welcomes questions and comments via e-mail.