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Waiver Wire: NLby Michael StreetJune 26, 2009
Michael Street said...
James: No, that’s not a typo. Here’s how I came up with the ranking: Anderson’s True Talent projected OPS of .731 ranks him 25th among NL LFs, 27th among NL RFs, and 22nd among NL CFs, making him about 72nd among all NL OFs. I assume a standard roto league starts 4 OFs, so in an 18-team NL-only league, he’d be dead last among startable OFs. Yes, he could fill a UTIL spot, but a .731 OPS puts him around the level of production of a good MIF. These rankings always come with caveats and adjustments, of course. Your league may use more or fewer OFs, and you may think he’ll beat that TT projection. He may, of course, outperform that projection in the short term, as he’s doing this month, but I base my projections on the entire season, unless otherwise indicated. I recognize that OPS isn’t the perfect ranking system, but it’s a pretty good way to estimate a guy’s worth. Anderson doesn’t draw many walks, which depresses his OPS, and he has managed to drive in runs despite a sub-.450 SLG. This might make you want to tweak his ranking upwards a bit. Weighing against that is Anderson’s age, and the fact that he hasn’t played more than 100 games in the OF since 2005, or more than 140 games there since 2003. To me, that suggests he may be peaking, or may not even finish the season. Plus, as mentioned in the writeup, Atlanta’s offense is fairly anemic, 11th in the NL in R/G. Taking all that into consideration, I felt his OPS ranking put him just about right. Posted 06/26 at 01:34 PM
Michael Street said...
James— I got so deep into the math that I may have ignored the simpler aspect of your question: namely, that with just 16 NL teams, an 18-team NL league would be a rough one to make with traditional roto lineup structure. So with that in mind, I’d amend my WW recommendation to say “only the deepest of NL leagues.” I don’t think he’s suitable for most mixed leagues, unless we get into the stratospheric 20+ team variety. Posted 06/26 at 02:04 PM
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Is that a typo about Anderson? Saying that NL only leagues greater than 18 teams would benefit from him? That would mean that there are 89 more outfielders better than him. I would guess that you meant, that he is worth it in NL only leagues and mixed leagues greater than 18.