Waiver Wire Offseason: AL

For some reason I thought Ellsbury’s defense was above-average. And I’m assuming this his low OBP was a hiccup as he gets used to being at the top of the order. He was much more comfortable in the second half, after he’d been moved back up to the top spot.

Dave Cameron wrote a good article about it on Fangraphs a while back….the gist of it was basically that we shouldn’t leave a player for dead until we’re sure of it.  I don’t think predicting a player will fall off a cliff is ever a safe idea…similar to projecting huge breakout seasons for prospects. 

Another note:  His BABIP in 2007 was .399, so 2009 (.359) was not his career high.  Plus, his career BABIP is .345, so even if it does regress to his career average, that still comes out to low-mid .280’s.

As far as Dave Cameron’s article (was it called “Don’t Bury the Dead” or something?), I’d quip that this is the same writer whose annual “Offseason Plan” for the Mariners has included paying more-than-they-got-in-real-life salaries to Geoff Jenkins and Scott Hatteberg in the years when they flopped completely.

Now, there’s obviously a kernel of truth to the sentiment, and a few years ago Ron Shandler did well in an expert roto league with an all-35+ strategy, suggesting that for the most part the “ageism” bias of fantasy owners outstrips the actual decline we can expect.

I do think that whenever “everyone says” that something will happen and it doesn’t - such as Figgins going into decline in 2009 - it’s a good time to review the analytical tools which are being used.  Maybe some other correlations exist which are much more impactful to certain player types than others.  Good thought question.

Tony Phillips was another switch-hitter without much power who started walking a LOT more in his 30’s, though obviously he hadn’t nearly the speed that Chone has.  I will stick by a prediction that his SB look very shaky for the future, and expect that he’ll be overbid in many leagues based on his 2009 SB total.

Gack! How embarassing… I don’t even know for sure how that got in there, I just re-checked my Word version of the article, and I had “Borbon” (with no first name), I must have edited it in while scanning it for “errors”...  “Kwality Assurance” at its worst. :( 

Anyway, yep, it’s Julio.  Pedro probably wouldn’t steal many bases for you.