May 24, 2012
Now Available for 2012 THT Essentials: Now Available The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2012, an annual "must buy" for all baseball fans, is now shipping. Read this article to learn more about it.
THT's latest book 
Lucas Apostoleris
Rich Barbieri John Barten Brian Borawski Vince Caramela Chris Jaffe Brad Johnson Mat Kovach Kevin Lai Myron Logan Chris Lund Bruce Markusen Jeff Moore Troy Patterson Harry Pavlidis Dave Studeman Steve Treder David Wade And here's the full roster.
Or you can search by:
 All content on this site (including text, graphs, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Part of the USA Today Sports Media Group |
We will, we will (mock) youby Nick FlederFebruary 02, 2012 Nick Fleder has been a die-hard Yankee fan since birth and has played fantasy baseball obsessively since around the age of ten. He can be reached for all inquiries or comments at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). You can ask him any baseball or fantasy baseball related questions on Twitter: @fishfle Comments
Fletcher said...
Sexy team! Good balance with a lot of upside; best to come out of your mock in my opinion. Posted 02/02 at 11:29 AM
Nick Fleder said...
Definitely playing the upside, yes. Agree wholeheartedly on Kipnis and an argument can certainly be made against picking Cain/Goldschmidt this early considering their track records (or lack thereof). That said, I remain steadfast in my love for the Strasburg pick. It worked for my strategy up to that point, and be aware that if he’s supplemented with a studly pitcher in the earlier rounds (you decided to budge and go for a pitcher in the third, say a reach on Cliff Lee)... well, I’d certainly say, then, that Upton/Kinsler/Hosmer/Lawrie with Strasburg as a #2 can be safely described as a potentially winning roster. In many ways, I think it was the most important pick (or perhaps the pick most indicative of how the rest of my draft was dictated and how I strategized here). Posted 02/02 at 12:22 PM
jb said...
Your “What did I learn?” is posted on my draft plan cover sheet. In larger font that you had! Posted 02/02 at 06:15 PM
Dan said...
Matt Weiters with the 40th overall pick?....I’ve seen enough, this draft is just plain silly. Posted 02/02 at 08:47 PM
Nick Fleder said...
Good to hear it, jb! Dan, I also can’t get behind the Weiters pick. Can’t see how he’s taken above McCann, and a case can be made for Posey being taken before him as well (perhaps even Montero deserves to be drafted near Weiters). However, just like any other draft, there’ll be picks you don’t agree with or perhaps are dumbfounded by; that doesn’t mean the entire draft was worthless or silly. Now, if you still think that for an array of other reasons, that’s totally fine, but I think it’s plain silly to form an opinion about a draft based on one pick. Posted 02/02 at 09:04 PM
Dan said...
Well if we were talking about a casual bunch of friends meeting at a bar and grill and doing a draft while throwing down some beers then it wouldn’t shock me so much. I guess I just respect this site too much and was thrown off by that miserable choice…maybe it was a mistake…who knows. Posted 02/02 at 09:17 PM
Josh Shepardson said...
@ Dan Yup, totally silly to take a former top prospect who has shown skills growth every year of his major league career. I mean when you toss in his position scarcity and his strong finish, it’s absolutely laughable. I’m thrilled to continue to read Wieters hate. Little did I realize how many owners he jaded by failing to live up to the unreal expectations heaped upon him. I understand the support McCann is receiving, but I think many are hung up on his production from 2006-2008. Even if he gets a pass (I think a partial pass is in order) for 2010 and 2011, his 2009 line is very much within reach of Wieters. Posted 02/02 at 09:26 PM
Dan said...
It’s not Wieters hate at all. The 40th player taken overall? That is definitely laughable! Help me understand! Posted 02/02 at 09:32 PM
Josh Shepardson said...
@ Dan Two catchers had gone off the board just prior to my pick (Santana/Napoli, who sit 1/2 respectively on my catcher rankings). I had 16 picks before my next selection, and valued Wieters as the third best catcher. I expected another catcher to go off the board before my next pick, and wasn’t 100% positive Wieters wouldn’t be that guy. Looking at my positional tiers, he was worth the reach. There was a cluster of pitchers I liked a lot and felt no need to reach for (as it turned out, I got two of those pitchers with my next picks). I had already filled 3B and SS with players, and thought it prudent to continue to fill the scarce positions. Like at pitcher, I felt as if there was a cluster at 2B, thus, no value in nabbing one at my 4th round selection. I could have addressed the OF, or 1B, but with Jennings serving as my OF1, I didn’t think it was necessary to fill my OF2 position just yet. I believed Konerko would get back to me, and that was a miscalculation. If given the choice once again, I’d have nabbed Konerko and gambled on Wieters getting back to me. As it turned out, I was content getting Berkman a few rounds later. I will concede I reached on Wieters, but I don’t think it was Stretch Armstrong-eque, and there was thought that went into it. As it turned out, I was quite happy with my team, and part of that can be attributed to having a guy I view as a top tier catcher. Posted 02/02 at 09:44 PM
Derek Ambrosino said...
Josh, The 2-catcher format also helps justify the Wieters pick too. The more I listen to your arguments, the more sense they make to me. However, I’d like to hear your thoughts on this: So, I kind of see McCann vs. Wieters as a bit of the playing it a bit more safe vs. taking a little more risk, hoping to be ahead of the curve. I think a good season can be expected from Wieters, but at pick #40, you are kind of paying for his upside. What do you think about the Wieters pick in relation to where my catchers actually went. So, I got McCann at 56 - would you rather McCann there than Wieters at 40? And, if you’re playing a bit of the upside card, do you think betting Mauer’s bounce back at 65 is a better bet than betting on Wieter’s upside/breakout at 40? Posted 02/04 at 12:17 PM
Dan said...
Wow, Montero went about 70 picks later! How much better numbers is Wieters going to have than Montero? The only way this pick is justified is if Wieters breaks out in a major way. Still a major reach regardless. I think you would have been fine waiting another round and Wieters would still be around. I like Wieters too and do think he will improve on last season’s numbers. Posted 02/04 at 01:07 PM
Derek Ambrosino said...
Dan, The one thing I think you’re selling short is that if Wieters merely improves on last season’s numbers without majorly breaking out, he could essentially BE Brian McCann already. Wieters 2011 in 139 games: 72/22/68/1/.262 McCann 2010 played 143 games: 63/21/77/5/.269 McCann career averages prorated to 140 games: 60/22/87/3/.286 So, with normal progression, it’s highly possible that Wieters outproduces McCann and with a major jump, Wieters could outproduce just about all Cs. Posted 02/04 at 01:27 PM
Dan said...
Just glanced over at most recent ADP at MDC. This is over 600 recent drafts held there. I’m not sure if those are 2 catcher formats but regardless….. Wieters is barely in the top 100 picks on average. Montero is right after him at around 102nd pick on average. Josh, what numbers are you expecting from Wieters in 2012? Posted 02/04 at 01:27 PM
Dan said...
Derek, Agreed, but it’s more likely that Wieter’s numbers have small uptick than something huge that would warrant such an early choice. I suppose I’d rather wait and take Montero 70 picks later and feel comfortable with .280 18 75 85 than reach for a breakout season….which Montero could do too…. Posted 02/04 at 01:42 PM
Derek Ambrosino said...
Dan, 2-C league is a huge gamechanger for draft position, as far as I’m concerned. I’m extreme, but for example, I took Cs back-to-back in rounds 5,6 of this draft. In a 1-C 12 team league, I probably wouldn’t have chosen a catcher until round 10 if somebody was there that I really liked, and quite possibly just resigned myself to the 12th best overall C and basically treated the C like a kicker in a football draft. Both Wieters and Montero have wide ranges covering where they’ve been drafted, so any one draft can misrepresent what you might expect to see in yours. On average, they are being picked close together - but the mean can also be a misleading number. We don’t know the actual distribution of picks. But, regardless, you can see a draft where Wieters goes toward his higher end range, while Montero goes toward his later - and that’s like 100 picks worth of gap. Or, you could see the reverse. Or, you could see both players go in the same round. It’s a common misconception that a player’s ADP actually represents a point at which that player is frequently selected. The average of everybody’s opinion, could in fact, correspond to nobody’s opinion. Posted 02/04 at 05:25 PM
Page 1 of 1
Commenting is not available in this weblog entry. | ||||
This looks like a dynasty league draft—much upside, but I wonder about the value for 2012 season. It’s the flip side of Michael Stein’s draft. Apart from your own “Disgust(ing)” picks, it seems to me you took Kipnis, Strasburg, Cain and Goldschmidt, for example, at least a year (or a couple of rounds this year) too early. I like the pitching staff, though…