Who is 2013’s top dog?
by Derek AmbrosinoFebruary 21, 2013
Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com.
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May 22, 2013
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Who is 2013’s top dog?by Derek AmbrosinoFebruary 21, 2013 Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com. Comments
Brad Johnson said...
Trout’s weight is up, as I’m sure everyone on Twitter has told you. That almost certainly means fewer steals, but it could possibly come with more HR. My own analysis suggests that leagues with 3 OF and 1 UTIL should prefer Cabrera. Leagues with 5 OF and 1 UTIL or 4 OF and 2 UTIL should prefer Trout or Braun. Ultimately, there’s no wrong choice here. Posted 02/21 at 08:28 AM
Brad Johnson said...
^ Posted 02/21 at 08:32 AM
headcase said...
Giancarlo! My case: Posted 02/21 at 02:24 PM
Mike Erickson said...
My initial inclination was to select Mike Trout. There’s many reasons to take this guy, especially the stolen base category. However, I have a personal bias in taking Miguel Cabrera. I’ve had him on my team in other years, dating back to his Florida days when he was the league’s best kept secret, and the consistency he has year in and year out is amazing. It’s true Trout is exciting and is the flavor of the month, so to speak. But watching that natural stroke Miggy has is a marvel to watch as well. Tough choice, but I’ll take Cabrera. Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind .... Posted 02/21 at 04:54 PM
Scott said...
Team Miggy Call me old fashioned but I just don’t invest heavily in last year’s breakouts, steals, or OF in round 1 if I can help it. Miggy is in another world compared to just about all 3B in R/HR/RBI and AVG and a down year would be what? 100/30/100/.300? Braun is amazing but I think Kemp is the OF to invest in this year. Given the price/round you’d have to take each at I like Kemp’s potential return on investment better. Trout if he regresses to something like .290/20/40 w 110 R and 70 RBI just isn’t as special vs. his OF peers IMO Posted 02/21 at 05:01 PM
Derek Ambrosino said...
TNT, Breaking the runs record would be insane. In a best case scenario, I could see him challenging the peak marks of the fantasy era. Bagwell did 152 I think and biggio 146 as best marks since the 90s. ...at least I think. I’m on mobile and going off memory. 125 would more than suffice though Headcase, I think you are aptly named… Giancarlo is a late first rounder. If you want him and have a pick in the first half of a draft, I’d suggest trading down for the better flip pick. Scott, I haven’t run the numbers but if miggy’s floor is 300-30-100-100-0 and Trout is something like 290-20-75-110-40 that might be an argument for Trout. That’s still first round value. And if we agree that Trout has the higher ceiling, wouldn’t you consider a player with the highest ceiling in the game and a top 12 floor as quite possibly the most attractive proposition on the board? Posted 02/21 at 07:31 PM
Scott said...
Derek: I won’t quibble with your logic aside from saying i feel that .290/110/20/70/40 line is his most Likely 2013 line to me…not his floor. My argument for Cabrera comes from a personal sensitivity to positional scarcity and roster building preference. if I played in a 4 or 5 OF league w/o a CI and 1 or 0 Util spots the balance could tip toward going with Trout or Braun pretty easily and if the league has CF as a separate spot (you should!) then Trout jumps to #1 easy. Posted 02/21 at 08:36 PM
Derek Ambrosino said...
Scott, Thanks for the further input. Clearly, any of the three are defensible, so it doesn’t make sense for me to push too hard in a matter that is highly influenced by personal preference and “gut.” I certainly wouldn’t criticize anybody who selected Cabrera first. And, your points about slightly different league dynamics tilting the equation should be well-considered by all. As has been discussed here before, projections should be understood as a range of probabilities for various performances. It would be interesting to throw out a few hypothetical benchmarks for the two players’ totals and see what Trout would have to produce to match a typical year from Miggy or Braun. Perhaps, that’s something I can look into going forward. Posted 02/21 at 10:12 PM
Roy said...
Fully get the Trout love, but I just wish there was one media/blog/writeup somewhere that would take the unpopular position and conclude Trout’s gonna flop based on that he had one impossible 3-month run following an awful 2011 and then came back down to earth. Yes, even if Trout just maintains what he ended on, that’s still great, but Marco Scutaro had a better October, I’m surprised he’s not declared “the highest ceiling of them all”. I’ve watched sports for too long and seen many too good to be true things to know they don’t last. Trout obviously sold his soul for last season’s impossible run; consequently, he will start slow, get injured, and miss most of next season in order to balance the universe. Or maybe I’m getting real life confused with the lifecycle of Roy Hobbs. The moral to the story? I think that Bryce indeed becomes baseball’s LeBron, while Trout becomes baseball’s Jeremy Lin. Posted 02/21 at 10:41 PM
B said...
I’m far from being a fantasy baseball expert, but I feel that there is no wrong choice who to choose as it mainly depends on your draft strategy and how you want your roster to look. Do you prefer a more scare position first? There are all sorts of strategies that can be undertaken as the draft progresses to ensure you get the most balanced roster required. As long as you stick to a plan, and adjust along the way. My preference - Cabrera. I’ll take the elite stud at 3B who is arguably less likely to have a lower ceiling. I want to see Trout do it again before I consider him a #1 pick. Posted 02/22 at 08:38 AM
B said...
That should read - less likely to have a lower floor (IMO). Posted 02/22 at 08:40 AM
Derek Ambrosino said...
B, I think you are right. Personally, I prefer 5-category very good over 3 or 4 category elite. ...I want to avoid having to roster the Rajai Davises of the world because I didn’t get enough speed from my core and now must dedicate a roster spot to a one-trick pony. But another thing to consider is who your favorite sleepers are - if you think you have a lot of value picks and sleepers in the power department, then you may want to tilt toward prioritizing speed in the early rounds, and vice versa if the opposite. Roy, The Marco Scutaro tangent is irrelevant. First off, Marco Scutaro wasn’t considered the best prospect in baseball before stepping on a major league diamond. Marco Scutaro was never considered as having the tools to be a once in a generation talent. Second, you drastically overstate the extent to which Trout was carried by 1 hot month. Trout’s OPS by month, discounting April since he only played 3 games. May .941 Miggy: April .940 Even discounting July - and all players are entitled to their hot streak - Trout would still have posted an OPS in the low 9s. If he repeats just that, he should have little trouble outproducing a typical Cabrera season - remember, last season were career highs for Cabrera in HR and RBI. Posted 02/22 at 05:21 PM
vilhelm said...
I’d go with either braun or trout. 5 beats 4. Whichever figured for more homers. Trout hit 30 missing a month and is now as a big as Pujols ... so maybe he gets to braun’s level. Besides, Cabrera’s history is more of a 30 35 homer guy anyway. Posted 02/24 at 08:44 AM
Tim said...
@Headcase Stanton won’t have many home runs this year when he’s just going to get intentionally walked every AB. If you want elite power at #1, pick Adam Dunn. Posted 02/24 at 09:19 PM
Rotobanter said...
Agree completely on all of the above, Derek - especially as it relates to Trout’s HR/FB ratio as posted here: Let’s just say he won’t change his name to Giancarlo. I have Miggy first overall: 5x5 stats have them ranked with the following points respectively: Slight position scarcity and we have: Miggy’s consistency and potential for more runs (addition of V-mart) and as many rbi (addition of Hunter)makes him even more fun to think about. Posted 02/25 at 10:35 PM
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Cabrera, and even Braun, are clearly the safer picks. And generally I adhere to the philosohpy of going safe w/ #1 overall. I fully expect Trouts HRs to settle a bit (but there’s not much downside), but given the strikes he’ll see in an even stronger Angel lineup, his doubles & triples should more than make up for it. It’s all about two things for Trout: 1) avoiding a prolonged slump (as the great ones typically do), and 2) avoiding injury. I usually hate when people mention injury, but the way Trout goes after ‘em and into walls concerns me…after all, it’s the #1 pick, not a 2nd or 3rd rounder. For me the risk/fear factor is outweighed by having the most exciting player in baseball to follow & root for. The projection probably has Cabrera #1, for obvious reasons. But my prediction is that Trout breaks the record for runs scored, and threatens the triples record, while going .290/28/90 and swiping nearly 75 bags. If he can be just a bit more selective at the plate, considering his defense & the ways he affects a game (oppositions approach), by the end of the year we’ll all be talking about where he’ll fit in the ‘greatest ever’ discussion when all is said & done. Watch closely, Bryce.