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Whom Would You Choose? (Again)by John BrattainMarch 02, 2007 Since we had so much fun with Schilling vs. Smoltz, I thought I would keep the good times rolling. Probably the two names that came into the discussion most frequently were Kevin Brown and Mike Mussina. They’re today’s victims. I really haven’t thought a lot about this duo since the only reason they’re on my radar screen at all is because they’ve pitched against the Blue Jays and Expos from time to time. And that’s all that really matters. If it doesn’t involve Toronto or Montreal, for the life of me I cannot understand why anybody would care about them. I’ve never thought about which pitcher is superior or is better qualified for the Hall of Fame, so I have no preconceived notions about either of them and since they haven’t done anything to benefit the universe’s favorite teams, I have no preconceived notion and no favorites. I might be inclined to lean toward Mike Mussina if the Jays knock him around frequently in 2007, but that is then and this is now. We’ll use the Schilling-Smoltz column as a template since (1) it worked so well last time and (2) I’m just plain lazy and it’s less work doing it this way. So once again, a quick and dirty look at the numbers: The StatsPitcher W L ERA ERA+ RSAA IP BB K WHIP Mussina 239 134 3.63 125 310 3210.1 719 2572 1.18 Brown 211 144 3.28 127 304 3256.1 901 2397 1.22 Next, the postseason résumés: Pitcher W L ERA IP BB K Mussina 7 8 3.40 135.0 29 142 Brown 5 5 4.19 81.2 31 71 Hardware
Other points of interest:Mussina: Kevin Brown might have been the most underrated pitcher of his time. From the end of the strike through 2003, he had an insane peak. Despite a clunker of a year due to his perennially cranky back in 2002, when he went 3-4, 4.81 ERA in 63.2 IP, Brown was: Pitcher W L ERA ERA+ IP BB K RSAA Brown 119 67 2.70 163 1772.1 419 1522 280 Of course, it’s easy to understand why he was so overlooked. There were three better pitchers statistically over that span and they’re all eventual inner-circle Hall of Famers—Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux. Of interest, only Pedro has a better ERA (minimum 1,700 IP) from 1995-2003 than Brown. Those three are the proud owners of 12 Cy Young Awards. Interestingly 1996, 1998 and 2003 were the only seasons in which one of the three didn't cop the award, winning nine of a potential 18 crowns. Mussina’s peak years were 10 seasons from 1992-2001: Pitcher W L ERA ERA+ IP BB K RSAA Mussina 160 87 3.52 132 2150.2 488 1697 253 A few notes: While his ERA+ and RSAA aren’t as impressive as Brown’s, Mussina has logged almost 400 more innings pitched. Granted his run is a season longer than Brown’s, but that still leaves almost a full season of 132 ERA+ pitching to take into account. That has huge value. Also, Mussina averaged fewer BB/9 than the stingy Brown, although Brown enjoyed the better K/9 and K/BB of the two. Although Brown clearly had the quality, Mussina had the quantity—and the quantity was very high quality, too. Not be overlooked is that, barring injury, Mussina will pass Brown in career innings pitched and at age 38 has three or four more seasons to add to his fine totals and might approach 275-280 win territory. The fact is, while rate stats are impressive and tell us how good a player is/was, they don't necessarily tell us who had the more valuable career. Here are two pitchers with more than 2,500 IP. The first one is a Hall of Famer. The second isn’t: Pitcher ERA ERA+ IP WHIP RSAA Number 1 1.82 145 2964.1 1.00 256 Number 2 3.31 118 4970.0 1.19 344 Tell any GM/scout that he could have either player for an entire career and both cost the same. Guess which he'll choose. Obviously the Hall of Fame isn’t just about career value but rather greatness. One can be great absent a long career; the Hall acknowledges this fact and has waived the minimum 10-full-season requirement on rare occasions in the cases of exceptional yet abbreviated careers. Whether those were wise decisions is a debate for another day. (BTW: the above pitchers are Ed Walsh and Bert Blyleven.) However, in the case of Mussina vs. Brown, while Brown obviously had the greater peak, who would be more deserving: Mussina with a 120 ERA+/335 RSAA/4,000 IP or Kevin Brown with 127 ERA+/304 RSAA/3,256.1 IP? I remember Bill James doing a comparison between Don Drysdale and Milt Pappas in “Whatever Happened To The Hall of Fame? The Politics Of Glory” since their careers were so similar. His study was what had more value to a club: a few monster years mixed in with some less-than-stellar seasons or a nice, consistent pattern of very-goodness when overall numbers were about equal in the end. James concluded that the former would result in more pennants and therefore was more valuable. (Iinterestingly, Drysdale’s top two comps are Pappas and Kevin Brown). Trouble is, their careers are somewhat similar right now, but by the time Mussina retires they most likely won’t be. There’s no comparing the two peaks; Brown was inferior to only three first-ballot inner-circle HOFers. Mussina’s peak had guys like Tom Glavine and Brown ahead of him and Curt Schilling and Kevin Appier in the general neighborhood. Not exactly chopped liver, but Mussina never had seasons like 233 IP/214 ERA+, 257 IP/160 ERA+, 230 IP/167 ERA+ and 211 IP/169 ERA+; Mussina’s sole season over 160 ERA+ came in just 176.1 IP. Brown simply had more eye-popping seasons than Mussina. Although Brown pitched fewer postseason innings, he was the clear-cut ace of two somewhat-unlikely pennant-winning clubs while Mussina’s two pennants came after he joined a dynasty team. In the seasons in which they copped the pennant, Mussina was 34-19, 3.27 ERA in 443.1 IP while Brown was 34-15, 2.18 ERA in 494.1 IP. Last week I mentioned an outstanding e-mail I received from Toby Stern. It was too long to post but I’m going to use some excerpts from it now. (Although generally laziness compels me to use others’ digging in these instances, in this case it was simply too good to pass up):
Finally (with an able assist from Mr. Stern) the stretch numbers: Aug. 1-end of season: Pitcher W L ERA IP BB K Mussina 74 50 3.20 1086.1 249 944 Brown 65 44 3.06 1040.2 296 785 As Toby pointed out in his e-mail: “I know this is just a tiebreaker, but it speaks for itself. Fourteen of Mussina's 23 SHO have come in the stretch.” I think Mussina qualifies as the better pitcher "down the stretch." So, do I vote for the insane peak of Kevin Brown or the high overall quality of Mussina’s career? The fact is Mussina's career isn't done yet; he will add to those totals. Leaving that aside, to this point the RSAA and ERA+ numbers are too close to base a judgment on. While Brown has the better peak, Mussina is no "Milt Pappas-to-Kevin Brown's-Don Drysdale." Further, Mussina was clearly better "down the stretch." And their postseason numbers are deceiving—especially with Brown. Bear in mind that Mussina has pitched 50 more postseason innings: Playoff ERA LDS LCS WS Mussina 3.58 3.34 3.00 Brown 0.98 5.65 6.04 The question is this: Has Mike Mussina done enough to overcome Kevin Brown's incredible peak? I say yes. You say... References and Resources All stats courtesy of the amazing Baseball-Reference and Lee Sinins' Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. Tune in every Wednesday at 4:40 PM EST on ESPN 1450's The Mike Gill Show and Fridays at 5:40 PM on “The Locker Room with Kevin Williams” on Fox Sports Radio 1310AM and 1160 WOBM-AM where I'm a weekly guest. For a distinctive Canadian flavour you can read my coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays (as well as other baseball matters) at Sympatico/MSN Sports. Also be sure to check out baseball’s hottest blog as mentioned by the voices inside my head: The Progenitor of Severe Gluteal Discomfort. Please forward all flames, complaints, whining, accusations about my mother, inferences of habouring an Oedipus complex, demands to engage in coprophagy before shuffling off this mortal coil, and anatomically impossible suggestions here. Do you have a general question or comment for one of THT's writers? Send it in to our weekly mailbag We also welcome unsolicited op-ed pieces of approximately 500 words for consideration. We reserve the right to edit for length, clarity and consistency of style. Please include your whole name and location to be considered. If you have a comment about this specific article, please email the writer. Next Article: The Best Team Money Can Buy>> <<Previous Article: This Annotated Week in Baseball History: Feb. 25- March 3, 1909 |
