November 8, 2009
Order Now The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 is now in development and will ship in mid November! This year's book will feature articles by THT's staff as well as Bill James, Tom Tango and Craig Wright. If you use this link to purchase the Annual, you will be in the first group to receive it and you'll be supporting THT. 
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Whom Would You Choose?by John BrattainFebruary 17, 2007 Pitchers and catchers are reporting! That means there soon will be oodles of relevant, interesting and compelling story lines for columns, and I’m confident that my fellow THTers will keep you up to date and informed on who’s moving and who’s shaking. This hasn’t happened quite yet, alas. Besides, this has little to do with my column space. My long-time readers (Mom and whoever drew the short straw on our editing staff this week) know all too well that they’re stuck with whatever happens to tumble from my alleged mind and onto my keyboard. In 2005, we discussed Curt Schilling's Hall of Fame case since I felt it was easy to overlook such a pitcher when we’re witnessing an era chock full of all-time greats. Over the last two decades, it has been our privilege to watch the likes of Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez. Although he’s just a notch below that, we can probably debate whether Tom Glavine should be reckoned along with our fab four, since he's a two-time Cy Young Award winner, 10-time All-Star (a high number for a pitcher), five- time 20-game winner and (barring a catastrophe) soon to be 300-game winner. In an era of such obscenely good pitchers, it is not hard to see how we might miss a talent of Schilling's caliber. There is another pitcher in the same category—John Smoltz. Suppose you had a Hall of Fame ballot with one spot left and you had to choose between Schilling and Smoltz: Whom would you choose? First, a quick and dirty look at the numbers: The StatsPitcher W L SV ERA ERA+ IP BB K WHIP Schilling 207 138 22 3.44 127 3110.0 688 3015 1.13 Smoltz 193 137 154 3.27 126 3161.1 937 2778 1.17 Next, the postseason résumés: Pitcher W L SV ERA IP BB K Schilling 7 2 0 2.06 109.1 22 104 Smoltz 15 4 4 2.65 207.0 67 194 Hardware
Other points of interest:Schilling: So now we have the raw data. It might seem to be a slam-dunk for Schilling, but let us not forget a few things in Smoltz’ favor: He was a key member of a dynasty team. Save for the strike-shortened 1994 season when they finished six games in arrears of the Montreal Expos, the Atlanta Braves won 14 division titles, five pennants and a World Series. Glavine came and went; Maddux came and went. The only on-field constant on that remarkable run was John Smoltz. Further, Smoltz won pitching’s top honor for both starters and relievers (the Rolaids Relief Award—although relief pitchers obviously qualify for the Cy Young). Yes, the Braves had their share of postseason disappointments, yet Smoltz has an LDS ERA of 2.52, an LCS ERA of 2.83 and a World Series ERA of 2.47. In addition, Smoltz is first all-time in postseason wins (15), and third in innings pitched (207). Of interest, the pitchers ahead of him in IP have ERAs of 3.42 in 218.1 IP (Glavine) and 4.08 in 212 IP (Andy Pettitte). Just for fun: Pitcher W L ERA IP H/9 BB/9 K/9 K:BB Glavine 14 16 3.42 218.1 7.87 3.59 5.90 1.64 Pettitte 14 9 4.08 212.0 9.68 2.46 5.69 2.31 Smoltz 15 4 2.65 207.0 7.30 2.91 8.43 2.89 Toss in the fact that the Braves were 61-58 (.513) over their 1991-2005 postseason run and Smoltz went 15-4 (.789) and you can make a legitimate case that Smoltz is the greatest postseason pitcher of the expansion era and has to be included in the "all-time" discussion. Bill James said in his book Whatever Happened To The Hall of Fame—The Politics of Glory that a good way to find bona fide Hall of Famers is to look for key players on great teams. The Braves had an amazing run of division titles and John Smoltz was the biggest part of it. Schilling, too, has nothing to ashamed of in his postseason résumé, but it pales alongside Smoltz’ even with the extra ring. He also has several notable achievements on his ledger. Schilling:
A dead heat. Let’s add their regular season and postseason records together. Pitcher W L ERA IP BB K Schilling 215 140 3.23 3220.1 710 3119 Smoltz 208 141 3.39 3370.1 1004 2972 You have to give more weight to postseason results, so this makes them bloody close to even still. Now, before I proceed, I haven't checked these data yet. Both are terrific pitchers in both the regular and postseasons. One has a better résumé over 162, the other in October. I will cast my ballot for the pitcher who has the better record from Aug. 1 to the end of the season: stretch run/pennant race baseball. I’ll state in advance that if they’re somewhat close, the fact that Smoltz has pitched in this scenario far more often than Schilling gives the Braves ace’s total more weight. So, I’m off to check the numbers at Baseball-Reference and will report back in a bit. O.K. I’m back. Here are the totals: Pitcher W L ERA IP BB K Schilling 65 48 3.44 1084.2 240 1034 Smoltz 67 43 3.23 1094.1 318 966 Smoltz’ winning percentage is higher; his ERA is lower. While his H/9 is .07 worse from Aug. 1 onward, his BB/9 and K/9 are slightly better during the stretch drive. In short, not only is he a postseason beast, but over 14 pennant races Smoltz—in the aggregate—manages to ramp it up a bit. Schilling’s ERA is the same, his winning percentage is below his career rate and his BB/9 is almost identical, but his H/9 and K/9 are a bit worse after Aug. 1. Before I started this column, I would’ve voted for Curt Schilling. My mind is changed. If I have one vote to cast between the two at this point, I vote for John Smoltz. Would you have voted for Schilling? Let me know why. References and Resources All stats courtesy of the amazing Baseball-Reference and Lee Sinins' Sabermetric Encyclopedia. Our good friend, and THT stalwart, John Brattain passed away on March 24, 2009. John was a prolific writer, whose work can also be read at Sympatico/MSN Sports and Baseball Digest Daily. John's work was also featured at USA Today, MLBtalk, ESPN Insider, Baseball Prospectus, The Baseball Analysts and The Baseball Journals. Never afraid to express himself in any medium, he was also a frequent radio speaker. Commenting is not available in this weblog entry. Do you have a general question or comment for one of THT's writers? Send it in to our weekly mailbag We also welcome unsolicited op-ed pieces of approximately 500 words for consideration. We reserve the right to edit for length, clarity and consistency of style. Please include your whole name and location to be considered. If you have a comment about this specific article, please email the writer. Next Article: THT Links: There's Nothing On>> <<Previous Article: Ranking Organizations |
