Why I was wrong about Jeff Samardzija
by Jack WeilandMarch 21, 2013
Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.
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June 18, 2013
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Why I was wrong about Jeff Samardzijaby Jack WeilandMarch 21, 2013 Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland. Comments
Steve-O said...
I said the same thing three years ago to co-worker. He believed in the shark, I thought he was a minnow. Posted 03/21 at 04:10 PM
Jack Weiland said...
@Fatbot ... I think you’re underestimating the amount of snark I intended to send John’s way. But yes, I agree to some extent. I think my mistake was not being open to the potential that a once highly regarded prospect (in some circles, at least) had made such significant progress. That’s what bothers me more than anything. And I do think it’s fair to read into the improvement in control in 2011, although it’s very possible the knowledge of 2012 is skewing that information for me. At any rate, the point is: keep an open mind, and research, research, research. @Steve-O ... you were right for about a year and a half. That ain’t bad. Posted 03/21 at 04:25 PM
Brad Johnson said...
It’s easy to get stuck in the null hypothesis mindset. For Samardzija, the null would have had something to do with him retaining his poor control and inconsistency. For most pitchers like Samardzija, that’s what happens. We need to recognize that we can be 95% certain of something will happen and the other thing could still happen. Samardzija was indistinguishable from any number of other pitching busts. On the flip side, we also need to recognize that we form confidence intervals without referencing some of the most important information. I think the lesson here is to reserve the snark for all but the most egregious cases. For example, I had a co-worker last year (Giants fan) who insisted that Freddy Sanchez was a good hitter. Posted 03/25 at 01:42 PM
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I think you’re being too hard on yourself. I luckily picked him up before his breakout, but not because of some secret formula or skill. The stats you present make it look obvious, but for every Shark there’s probably at least 20 guys with the exact same 2nd half improvement that fail. If not, then 1st half/2nd half comparisons would be more popular than WAR, FIP, etc.
Bottom line, it wasn’t a “mistake”, it was just luck. Which is why the stats remain descriptors, not predictors.