February 9, 2010
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Working the outside edgeby Harry PavlidisMay 27, 2009 Fastballs on the paint. Backdoor breaking pitches. Not feeding pull hitters red meat. It's the allure of the outside edge—and fear of the inside—that lures pitchers from the inside of the plate. The outside edge, for me, consists of just about one inch of actual plate. Starting eight inches out from center and ending four inches later, this is the outer limit of the as-played strike zone. Despite the risks of working inside, not many pitchers can avoid it all the time. Or, in the context of this survey, not many pitchers work outside against all hitters. Depending on their make-up, they're more or less prone to working one side or another when the platoon effect is, or isn't, in their advantage. As a matter of fact, only two dozen pitchers have thrown more than 15 percent of their pitches, split by batter hand, on the outside edge against both left- and right-handed hitters in 2009. And half of those haven't thrown enough pitches to get down to swing and contact types. There were just 12 pitchers that were left over when I eliminated the extra-small samples. Five of those guys stuck out, for one reason or another, and got my further attention. The stats mentioned below include:
I also broke down their pitches, found the selections that were the most frequent and/or most representative of the overall stats discussed. That effort was merely a means to a gratuitous end—flight paths. Pitches on Outer Edge
Javier VazquezThe sample pitches are Javy's sinker (F2) and his four-seam fastball (F4). He mixes all his pitches, but the fastballs are the best fits. The stats are across pitches, the flight paths are the selected pitch in the selected region to the selected batter hand. Click to enlarge in a pop-up window.
 Chris SampsonAs with Vazquez, I chose the sinker for Sampson against lefties, but it was the obvious choice this time. I went slider against the righties, but there were other candidates.
 Randy WolfA crafty veteran lefty, we shouldn't be surprised by his presence. Wolf actually throws more sinkers than change-ups to righties on the outer edge, but the change is far more devastating. His four-seam fastball against lefties was the obvious choice for the flight path.
 Danny HerreraSame pitch, slider, for both sides of the plate. Herrera may want to think that over a bit. In reality, he mixes his pitches on the outer edge, but his slider is the one worth looking at. The rv100 split is big enough, but it's 30 runs when I isolate the slider (graphed, but not shown in the table).
 Rafael BetancourtSo far, you've seen a balanced right/lefty combo (Vazquez and Wolf), a lop-sided but impressive right-hander (Sampson) and a lop-sided, and somewhat scary, southpaw (Herrera). Betancourt right-handed version of Herrera, sort of.
 Closing thoughtsI enjoy the study of individual difference, and I hope this work can build from and complement the broader analysis you see at The Hardball Times and elsewhere. I'm always looking for ideas or questions to play around with, and the best ones come from readers. Why? Because they see guys on their favorite teams do stuff that I may be totally unaware of, and it ends up, sometimes, being worth studying. Drop me a line, either at BallHype or at my e-mail below. I may end up blatantly stealing your ideas for my own aggrandizement. Or something like that. References and Resources PITCHf/x data from MLBAM. Pitch Classifications, run values and associated mistakes by the author. Harry Pavlidis admits he has a baseball problem. He also writes for Beyond the Boxscore, Out of the Ivy and his own blog, Cubs f/x. Feedback, questions and comments are appreciated - harrypav@gmail.com Commenting is not available in this weblog entry. Do you have a general question or comment for one of THT's writers? Send it in to our weekly mailbag We also welcome unsolicited op-ed pieces of approximately 500 words for consideration. We reserve the right to edit for length, clarity and consistency of style. Please include your whole name and location to be considered. If you have a comment about this specific article, please email the writer. Next Article: Critics, criticism, Cloninger>> <<Previous Article: Book Review: 100 Things Dodgers Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
