Wright power bounceback? Maybe not too likely
by Derek CartyJuly 03, 2009
David Wright owners? Sorry, but that power bounceback you're expecting might not be coming. The excellent Sean Smith ran some numbers a week or so ago and found that Wright should only be expected to hit around 11 more dingers from now until the end of the season. He does estimate the BABIP to be a very high .368, but the expected 76 percent contact rate would put his rest-of-season batting average at around .303. All said, expect Wright to be a good fantasy contributor the rest of the way, but don't expect him to reach 30 or even 20 HRs — and of course the batting average will drop.
Also, for what it's worth, True Home Runs wasn't the biggest fan of Wright coming into the year. I originally thought he might have been a lone outlier, somehow beating the system (and it's possible this 2009 outage is caused more by CitiField than anything else), but perhaps not. Worth noting. It's on my list to check into further.
Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.