November 23, 2009
Order Now The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 is now in development and will ship in mid November! This year's book will feature articles by THT's staff as well as Bill James, Tom Tango and Craig Wright. If you use this link to purchase the Annual, you will be in the first group to receive it and you'll be supporting THT. 
Rich Barbieri
John Barten Brian Borawski Craig Brown Evan Brunell David Gassko Jonathan Hale Brandon Isleib Chris Jaffe Max Marchi Bruce Markusen Harry Pavlidis Jeff Sackmann Dave Studeman Steve Treder Bryan Tsao Tuck! Dan Turkenkopf Colin Wyers Geoff Young John Brattain And here's the full roster.
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Wrong Win Probabilityby Dave StudemanSeptember 12, 2007 I'm watching the New York/Atlanta game on ESPN tonight. The ESPN crew is doing a pretty good job—I like Orel Hershiser's commentary—but they just made a big gaffe that few people will have caught. With the Mets leading 3-1 in the top of the eighth, the Braves loaded the bases with two out. To my delight, ESPN referred to the Mets' win probability in that situation, stating that it was 90%. That struck me as a high figure, so I looked it up on my WPA spreadsheet and found that the Mets' win probability at that point was actually 81%. I don't know where ESPN gets their figures, but they ought to verify them. There are many batting situations in which the sample size is just too small to rely on historical probabilities, and this was likely one of them. For instance, from 2000 to 2006, there have only been 58 games that reached that type of situation (run differential of -2 for the visiting team). The home team went on to win 88% of the time, but you can't make general statements from just 58 instances. They should rely on the math. Fittingly, Jeff Francoeur hit a single to tie the game. So much for your win probability. Dave was called a "national treasure" by Rob Neyer. Seriously. Comments about this article can be sent to him through the miracle of e-mail. Commenting is not available in this weblog entry. Do you have a general question or comment for one of THT's writers? Send it in to our weekly mailbag We also welcome unsolicited op-ed pieces of approximately 500 words for consideration. We reserve the right to edit for length, clarity and consistency of style. Please include your whole name and location to be considered. If you have a comment about this specific article, please email the writer. |
