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Ye believe in me, believe also in Mike Stantonby Ben PritchettJanuary 16, 2012 Ben Pritchett can be reached for questions, comments, gripes, or considerations at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or you could follow his whims on twitter @pritchettclan. Comments
Kevin Wilson said...
This is such a minor thing, but why are you using the acronym ISOP for Isolated Power when the rest of the world uses ISO? Good article though. Posted 01/16 at 09:24 AM
Ben Pritchett said...
@Behemoth- It’s still too early to speculate how the new Marlins Park will play. Yes it is slightly larger, but that big outfield wall that was in Sun Life is gone. Since Marlins Park will also have a retractable roof, weather shouldn’t play much of a factor. It could literally play anywhere from Chase to Petco. I think you are still underestimating the raw power that Stanton has. Most if not all of of Stanton’s HRs in 2011 would have most likely cleared the dimensions of the new Marlins Park. I’m just guessing of course, but it looks fine according to his HR chart. These are “TRUE” distances though so you should still take it with uncertainty. http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2011_494&type=hitter I’m curious, however, if anybody knows how many of Stanton’s HR caromed off that large LF wall. Posted 01/16 at 10:12 AM
Ben Pritchett said...
@Kevin Wilson- Kevin, I know the rest of the world uses ISO, but to be honest I don’t like using ISO in exchange for Isolated Power. To me it feels like the lay person needs a better understanding of what word I’m referencing. But you are right, I probably should stay standardized with ISO. Bear with me though. I really have trouble writing that. Thanks for keeping me in check. Posted 01/16 at 10:20 AM
Tom B said...
He better! My plan of sitting on my Waiver pick all season to get Montero in my dynasty league has instantly backfired. Posted 01/16 at 10:21 AM
Andrew said...
Also led the league in “Sharp” Contact according to MLBAM. He hits the ball harder than anyone. Also, no way you end up with Votto and Stanton… Posted 01/16 at 11:28 AM
Ben Pritchett said...
Andrew- Don’t kill my buzz. But wouldn’t that be a special one/two pick tandem. Andrew, do you think Stanton wiggles his way into the first round of a NL Only league? I think he might if he sees a great Spring, and the hype machine begins churning. Posted 01/16 at 11:38 AM
Pochucker said...
In my 12T mixed big money league I have 5th pick. Im planning on Votto in 1st. I love Stanton but I believe taking Kinsler in 2nd is smart play for me as much as I want Stanton. I would say chances of Stanton being there at #29 pick are probably 50% or less. Its no brainer if Kinsler not there. Posted 01/16 at 11:49 AM
Andrew said...
I could easily see Stanton going late-1st in NL-only. Isn’t he going late-2nd in 15-team NFBC? There’s at least one guy in every league who LOVES him. The power is otherworldly, but the contact rate worries me. I prefer to play it safer in the early rounds. Posted 01/16 at 12:43 PM
Nick Fleder said...
Madison Bumgarner may be a top tier pitcher next year and he might slip out of the 4th round even in 10 team NL Only leagues (right now, his 5x5 NL Only ADP is 41.76). Also, right outside of the fourth round is Pablo Sandoval—who people forget was on pace for 35 home runs or so. I think 30 is a realistic goal, and the man can clearly hit .300 as a baseline. Starlin Castro, should he come to camp a little beefed up, may continue his rise, and could be a sneaky 3rd round grab in NL-Only leagues—if he can go 20/25 in HR/SB, he’ll probably have 1st round value. All it takes is a HR boost! Ian Kinsler’s one of my targets in mixed leagues. Firstly, his health may be the best it’s ever been (see: plasma-rich injection in ankle). Secondly, he was the 19th best player, per Baseball Monster, while suffering from a case of BABIP blues (.243 compared with his career .282 mark). If he puts together another superb season counting-stats wise, and sees some natural regression to his mean, I think he’ll contend with first round value, and he can be had at ~26 in a mixed league draft (as late as 36!). All told, I completely agree with the Stanton assessment. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if he hit 50 dingers next year, and perhaps 60 one day (I know, crazy). I haven’t seen raw power like that in a number of years. I’d like to see more of these, Ben—good stuff. Posted 01/16 at 01:21 PM
Simon said...
Perhaps one way of looking at the Baseball Forecaster stats suggests that playing safe in the first 4 rounds is not really the exact science we all like to think it is!? Posted 01/16 at 01:26 PM
Ben Pritchett said...
Everybody listen to Simon. Playing it safe is all relative. There’s really no such thing as safe in this crazy game we play. I would say there are players that can hurt you more than others, but that’s honestly relative as well. It all boils down to doing your homework and finding the guys you really think will succeed or at the very least have a chance to put up monster numbers if they come with larger risk factors. Thanks for the contribution. You could write a book on that statement. Posted 01/16 at 02:06 PM
Ben Pritchett said...
@Andrew- I don’t worry about the contact rate. The chance of such massive production outweighs that risk to me. He’ll never have great contact rates with the high K%. he’s not that kind of player. I will say that would be the only valid hesitation moving forward. @Pochucker- I haven’t done my due diligence toasted researching Kinsler yet so I will defer to Nick Fleder’s comments. From what y’all say he seems prime but I have never been a huge fan of his. I will say that he does appear to be ticking back upwards on his roller coaster of consistency. That’s a good thing. Posted 01/16 at 02:13 PM
Ben Pritchett said...
Gosh Nick, I don’t know if I’m with you on Bumgarner and Sandoval. I liked both last year and wrote about both, but I’m afraid they’ll both be too pricey for me. I like Sandoval more than Bumgarner. I like Castro and what he could be. I don’t think he has the seasoning to improve enough of his categories quickly enough to return a first rounder. 20/25 is a gutsy prediction though. I like that. I will be targetting but my expectations are lower than yours i think. One day… I’ll check back with you on Kinsler. I have another name for you guys: David Wright. I think I’m going to write about him next. Posted 01/16 at 02:23 PM
Nick Fleder said...
@Ben Implying that Bumgarner or Sandoval or even Castro might provide 1st round was rash, but I think they’re all excellent values in NL only leagues in particular. Castro won’t go 20/25 next year, but perhaps one day soon. Posted 01/16 at 02:46 PM
Pochucker said...
Hope you guys are right on Sandoval—my league allows us to keep one player we drafted in 10th rd or later or got off ww for the next year only. Posted 01/16 at 03:30 PM
Fantasy Jedi said...
I feel the same way, Ben. Here’s a link if you’re interested on why I came to the same conclusion. http://fantasybaseballjedi.blogspot.com/2012/01/mike-stanton-2012-and-beyond.html Posted 01/16 at 07:58 PM
Ben Pritchett said...
@Pochucker- I’m not in love with Sandoval. He’s a solid optin if he doesnt kill you in cost to keep him. I’m not targeting him, but pairing him with Moustakas should be solid. @Fantasy Jedi- I read your stuff and it sounds like we are very like-minded. They’ll all wish they had the guts to label him for greatness. I give him more RBIs because I not only like the lineup situation but also because he’s going to have to hit 115+ RBIs to make up for the contact issues and strikeout-killing batting AVG. Good stuff, Jedi. Posted 01/16 at 08:14 PM
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The main problem with that might be how the Marlins new park plays. It is pretty huge, so it might limit power even more than the old one did.