November 8, 2009

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About Derek Carty

Derek Carty is a 22-year old fantasy baseball analyst residing in New Jersey. In addition to writing for THTF, his work has appeared at Rotoworld (NBC), Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and Heater Magazine. In his two years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 four top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail.

Choose year: 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004

Derek Carty's Articles

The Kemp Speed Theory: Do bigger players slow down earlier?

October 21, 2009
A look at whether big players lose their speed at a younger age than smaller players.

THTF fantasy glory: Championships and top finishes

October 05, 2009
A look at how the THT Fantasy staff fared in their experts competitions in 2009.

And sometimes, we don’t place enough emphasis on this year

August 31, 2009
A look at how sometimes we place too little emphasis on current year statistics.

Welcoming a new THT Fantasy writer

August 21, 2009
Introducing another new member of the THTF team.

Keeper league strategy: Closers

August 12, 2009
A keeper league strategy involving closers and which setup men might be primed to close games in 2009.

State of THT Fantasy

August 11, 2009
A quick update about the goings ons at THT Fantasy.

Fantasy Baseball Roundtable: Do trade pitches work?

August 11, 2009
This week, THTF hosts the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable and asks whether it's possible to change a potential trading partner's mind about a player.

In search of new inefficiencies in the fantasy marketplace

August 10, 2009
A look at the fantasy community's growing — perceived or otherwise — reliance on single-year statistics.

The control hitters have over everything

July 29, 2009
A look at year-to-year correlations for 25 hitting stats.

For those who still don’t believe FIP is bad for fantasy analysis…

July 16, 2009
Some more discussion on why FIP is a misleading and potentially useless stat for fantasy analysis.

The high variability second half team

July 15, 2009
A look at some boom or bust candidates for the second half and which way I think they'll go.

All-Star Week at THT Fantasy

July 13, 2009
What to expect from THT Fantasy this week.

Do hitters decline after the Home Run Derby?

July 13, 2009
A look at whether hitters actually underperform after participating in the Home Run Derby.

Simple xBABIP Calculator

July 10, 2009
A downloadable tool to calculate a simple version of Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix's xBABIP, plus an announcement for a new project.

The control hitters have over LD%

July 08, 2009
A look at the control a hitter has over his own line drive rate.

Deadline closer deals: The bane of a fantasy owner’s existence

July 06, 2009
A look at how fantasy championship dreams could be shattered come July 31 and how to take precautions.

How to handle league-switchers in AL and NL-only leagues

June 29, 2009
A method for determining whether to bid on a guy like Mark DeRosa or wait for Matt Holliday.

More on the LIPS/FIP discrepancy

June 17, 2009
A look at pitchers with normal HR/FB rates who are still misvalued by FIP.

Using FIP to evaluate pitchers? I wouldn’t

June 15, 2009
Why FIP shouldn't be used for fantasy analysis and a look at the players affected most by its flaws.

What’s wrong with Jimmy Rollins?

June 10, 2009
Why it may be time to buy Jimmy Rollins.

Fantasy Baseball Roundtable: Buying high and selling low

June 09, 2009
THT Fantasy is hosting this week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable, discussing the merits of buying high and selling low.

Javier Vazquez: More on bunching and damage

June 08, 2009
Digging a little bit deeper on Javier Vazquez, further examining his alleged "bunching" and the damage done by those bunches.

2009 LIPS ERA Leaders

June 03, 2009
A look at the early season leaders in LIPS ERA. **Updated since first posted**

The problem with Javier Vazquez: Bunching hits and walks?

June 03, 2009
Is clustering hits and walks together the reason why Javier Vazquez doesn't pitch up to his peripherals?

Another welcome to the new THT Fantasy

June 01, 2009
Welcome to the new THT Fantasy... again.

The best pitcher of 2009 is…

June 01, 2009
Greinke? Santana? Lincecum? Or someone less obvious...

Roster Doctor - 5/5/09

May 06, 2009
Another chance to play Roster Doctor.

Closer carousel

May 04, 2009
A look at the changing closer situations from the past week and who might surface in Washington.

State of THT Fantasy

April 22, 2009
A quick update about the goings ons at THT Fantasy.

Buy your power now

April 22, 2009
A look at why fantasy owners might be wise to trade for power now.

Draft review: FSIC

April 20, 2009
A look at Derek and Paul's FSIC NL team.

What’s the big deal with Jose Arredondo?

April 16, 2009
Why is Arredondo owned in so many leagues?

When to use your FAAB budget and waiver priority

April 15, 2009
My thoughts on using waiver priorities and my FAAB budget.

Fantasy Baseball Roundtable: Next Ludwick and Lee

April 14, 2009
A link to this week's roundtable discussion on who will be 2009's Ryan Ludwick and Cliff Lee.

Roster Doctor - 4/10/09

April 10, 2009

When to use the waiver wire

April 09, 2009
My take on proper use of the waiver wire in leagues with 'first-come-first-served' free agent pools.

Final off-season thoughts

April 06, 2009
Some final thoughts on players, including some undervalued power threats.

Fantasy Baseball Roundtable: Undraftable players

April 04, 2009
Link to this week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable.

Common players on my fantasy teams

March 27, 2009
A look at which players have wound up on my fantasy teams most frequently.

Smoke and mirrors: Nate McLouth

March 25, 2009
A look at McLouth's 2008 season and what 2009 might hold.

New feature: Roster Doctor

March 18, 2009
An introduction to THT Fantasy's newest feature, Roster Doctor.

THT Fantasy Final Four bracket contest

March 17, 2009
NCAA Final Four bracket contest for THT Fantasy readers.

Player spotlight: Hanley Ramirez

March 16, 2009
A look why we should reconsider Hanley Ramirez as the No. 1 pick in 2009 fantasy drafts.

Fantasy Baseball Roundtable: Player evaluation or strategy?

March 10, 2009
This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable, focusing on the relative importance of player evaluation and strategy.

Team Carty’s LABR NL roster

March 09, 2009
An early look at my LABR NL roster.

Fun with Road Park Factors

March 04, 2009
A look at players who could be affected by their 2009 schedules.

The double-unlucky pitching staff

March 02, 2009
A look at pitchers who experienced two bouts of bad luck in 2008.

Links to Rotoworld article and KFFL Expert League

February 27, 2009
A couple of links to outside articles and discussions I've recently done.

Where should Chase Utley be drafted?

February 25, 2009
Why Chase Utley could be the biggest early round bargain of 2009.

CAPS Profile: Gil Meche

February 23, 2009
A look at Royals starter Gil Meche under the CAPS microscope.

CAPS Profile: Aaron Harang

February 16, 2009
A look at Aaron Harang and his prospects for a rebound in 2009.

THT Projections and Fantasy Roundtable link

February 13, 2009
Some news about purchasing THT Projections and a link to this week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable.

Draft strategy: Injury risks can lead to big rewards (Part 3)

February 11, 2009
A look at some of the caveats to the strategy suggested in Part 2, plus some players to use the strategy with.

Fantasy Roundtable and Sons of Sam Horn Chat links

February 06, 2009
Links to a couple of external discussions that I was recently involved in.

Draft strategy: Injury risks can lead to big rewards (Part 2)

February 04, 2009
A look at the huge hidden value of players with injury risks.

Draft strategy: Injury risks can lead to big rewards (Part 1)

February 02, 2009
Which makes the better draft day risk, an injury-prone player or a young player with upside?

Introducing: CAPS Road Park Factors

January 28, 2009
Introducing an addition to our new CAPS stat, individualized Road Park Factors.

What’s the best BABIP estimator?

January 26, 2009
A head-to-head comparison of seven BABIP estimators. Which one should we be using?

THT Season Preview 2009 goes to printers

January 26, 2009
A quick notice about the soon-to-be-released THT Season Preview book.

Why one closer over another?

January 21, 2009
If saves are unpredictable, does it matter which closers we draft?

Smoke and mirrors: Robinson Cano

January 19, 2009
A look at whether Robinson Cano's 2008 season was indicative of a new talent level or simply bad luck.

THT Roundtable: How seriously do experts take mock drafts?

January 14, 2009
A look inside the heads of 13 experts as to their approach for publicized mock drafts.

Fantasy fallout: Hoffman signs with Brewers

January 09, 2009
The fantasy ramifications of Milwaukee's signing an all-time closer.

How I’ll approach picking at the end of Round 1 in 2009

January 07, 2009
How should a fantasy owner handle drafting at the end of the first round in a year where there are no obvious choices?

Introducing: Quality of Opponent adjustments and CAPS (for pitchers)

January 05, 2009
New adjustments for pitchers based on the quality of batters faced, using Johan Santana, Dan Haren, and Javier Vazquez as examples.

Fantasy fallout: Big Unit signs with Giants

December 29, 2008
A look at the fantasy ramifications of the Randy Johnson signing.

Mock Draft: 2009 Rotoworld Mock Draft

December 24, 2008
A rundown of the recent Rotoworld Mock Draft in which I participated.

Fantasy fallout: Teixeira signs with Yankees

December 24, 2008
A look at the fantasy ramifications of the Teixeira signing.

Early look at the ninth inning

December 22, 2008
A look at the early favorites for closer duties in 2009.

Should fantasy leagues mimic real-life baseball?

December 19, 2008
Why fantasy leagues shouldn't use sabermetric statistics.

Fantasy fallout: Kerry Wood to close for Indians

December 17, 2008
The fantasy ramifications of Wood's signing.

Introducing: THT Fantasy Comments

December 15, 2008
Introducing an in-house commenting system for THT Fantasy.

Fantasy fallout: A.J. Burnett signs with Yankees

December 12, 2008
A look at the fantasy implications of A.J. Burnett's signing with the Yankees.

Fantasy fallout: Sabathia signs with Yankees

December 11, 2008
A look at the fantasy ramifications of C.C. Sabathia signing with the Yankees.

Fantasy fallout: Mets sign K-Rod, acquire Putz in three-team trade (Part 1)

December 11, 2008
A look at the fantasy ramifications of these moves for Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz.

Fantasy fallout: Mets sign K-Rod, acquire Putz in three-team trade (Part 2)

December 11, 2008
A look at the fantasy ramifications of these moves for Aaron Heilman, Brandon Morrow, Franklin Gutierrez, and for the closer market as a whole.

The statistical impact of switching leagues (for pitchers)

December 10, 2008
A look at how switching from the AL to the NL (or visa-versa) affects a pitcher's statistics.

Fantasy fallout: Red Sox extend MVP Dustin Pedroia

December 08, 2008
A look at Dustin Pedroia's future coming on the heels of his six-year extension with the Red Sox.

Fantasy fallout: Edgar Renteria signs with Giants

December 05, 2008
The fantasy ramifications of the Giants' new shortstop.

Musings about the value of pitchers

December 03, 2008
Some thoughts on the value of pitchers.

The statistical impact of switching leagues (for hitters)

December 01, 2008
A look at how switching from the AL to the NL (or visa-versa) affects a hitter's statistics.

Breakout party: Delmon Young

November 24, 2008
A look at Twins' outfielder Delmon Young's prospects of a 2009 breakout.

Fantasy fallout: Ryan Dempster re-ups with Cubs

November 19, 2008
A look at the Cubs re-signing of Ryan Dempster from a fantasy perspective.

Breakout party: James Loney

November 17, 2008
A look at Dodgers first baseman James Loney's prospects of a breakout in 2009.

Fantasy fallout: Closers on the move

November 14, 2008
How Salomon Torres' retirement, Trevor Hoffman's departure from San Diego, and the Kevin Gregg trade affect closing situations around the league.

Fantasy fallout: Josh Willingham, Scott Olsen for Emilio Bonifacio

November 12, 2008
A look at the Marlins' trade of Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen to the Nationals for Emilio Bonifacio and the ramifications it has for fantasy owners.

Fantasy fallout: Matt Holliday to A’s (Part 2)

November 12, 2008
A look at how the Matt Holliday/Huston Street trade affects the fantasy baseball scene, the second in a two-part series.

Fantasy fallout: Matt Holliday to A’s (Part 1)

November 12, 2008
A look at how the Matt Holliday/Huston Street trade affects the fantasy baseball scene, the first in a two-part series.

Trade strategy: Fantasy baseball meets fantasy football

November 07, 2008
How paying close attention in your fantasy football league can pay big dividends next spring.

Smoke and mirrors: Ryan Ludwick

November 05, 2008
A look at whether Ryan Ludwick's breakout 2008 season was for real and what fantasy owners should expect from him in 2009.

Fantasy fallout: Mike Jacobs traded to Royals

October 31, 2008
How the Mike Jacobs/Leo Nunez trade affects the fantasy scene.

My player evaluation philosophy

October 29, 2008
A summary of my philosophy regarding player evaluation, as well as some discussion of philosophies used by other fantasy baseball analysts.

Stats reference

October 28, 2008
A quick reference guide of statistics commonly used at THT Fantasy Focus.

World Series Game 5 Live Blog and Chat

October 27, 2008
Announcement regarding a live blog and chat during tonight's World Series Game 5, featuring baseball writers from around the Internet.

Live THT Fantasy Focus Chat: 11 a.m. EST

October 22, 2008
Be sure to stop by at 11 a.m. EST for our first ever live THT Fantasy Focus Expert Chat!

Fantasy fallout: Mark Ellis re-signs with A’s

October 21, 2008
A look at how the re-signing of Mark Ellis affects the Oakland A's, the market for middle infielders, and your fantasy baseball plans.

Reminder: Live THT Fantasy Focus Chat on Wednesday

October 20, 2008
A quick reminder about the upcoming THT Fantasy Focus Expert Chat.

Smoke and mirrors: Carlos Delgado

October 17, 2008
A look at whether Carlos Delgado's increased production in 2008 was for real or a fluke.

Dual spotlights: Dan Uggla and Ty Wigginton

October 15, 2008
A look at two very similar players with two very different market values.

Coming up: THT Fantasy Focus live chats

October 14, 2008
A sneak peek at the newest feature of THT Fantasy Focus: live expert chats.

Player spotlight: Ben Sheets

October 09, 2008
A look at Ben Sheets' peripherals, PITCHf/x data, and market value for the 2009 fantasy baseball season.

First mock draft of the offseason

October 08, 2008
My first mock draft of the offseason and the importance of mock drafting in general.

FOX Sports Expert League recap and strategy discussion (Part 3)

October 04, 2008
A look at my season in the FOX Sports Experts League and the various strategies that went into it. Part three of a three part series.

FOX Sports Expert League recap and strategy discussion (Part 2)

October 03, 2008
A look at my season in the FOX Sports Experts League and the various strategies that went into it. Part two of a three part series.

FOX Sports Expert League recap and strategy discussion (Part 1)

October 02, 2008
A look at my season in the FOX Sports Experts League and the various strategies that went into it. Part one of a three part series.

Fantasy fallout: Todd Jones retires

September 25, 2008
How Todd Jones' departure affects the fantasy baseball scene.

World-famous StatSpeak roundtable

September 24, 2008
A link to this week's World Famous StatSpeak Roundtable in which I took part.

Introducing plate discipline stats

September 15, 2008
Four new stats measuring plate discipline and strikeout rate, which affect batting average.

Plate discipline stats in action

September 15, 2008
Putting our four new plate discipline stats to use on Carlos Quentin, Vladimir Guerrero, Andruw Jones, Ian Kinsler, Rickie Weeks and Craig Monroe.

THT Live: Favre affecting the Brewers’ struggles?

September 13, 2008

Fantasy baseball writers wanted!

September 04, 2008
Interested in writing about fantasy baseball? THT Fantasy Focus is looking for new analysts!

Stretch strategy: Playing keep-away

August 27, 2008
A look at a potentially important strategy for the fantasy baseball stretch run and how it applies to recently promoted Nelson Cruz.

Keeper league strategy: Closers

August 25, 2008
A keeper league strategy involving closers and which setup men might be primed to close games in 2009.

What’s wrong with Johan Santana? (PITCHf/x)

August 20, 2008
A look at Johan Santana using PITCHf/x data to try and decipher why he's having a down year.

On curveballs

August 18, 2008
A link to Derek's findings on curveballs using PITCHf/x.

On curveballs

August 18, 2008
A look at what makes a curveball effective, the most effective variation of curveball, and where it is best to throw a curveball in the strike zone.

Trade strategy: Overcoming economics

August 14, 2008
How to get top dollar for your players in keeper—even when supply and demand says you shouldn't be able to.

Economics of trading: Keeper leagues

August 07, 2008
How the fantasy baseball trade market (in terms of supply and demand) differs between redraft and keeper leagues.

Fantasy roundtable: Most valuable non-All-Stars

July 30, 2008
This week's Fantasy roundtable responses.

Player spotlight: Manny Corpas (PITCHf/x)

July 28, 2008
The two sides of the Colorado reliever in 2008, using PITCHf/x.

Waiver Wire: American and National League (Week 16)

July 19, 2008
A look at the Waiver Wire pickups for both the American and National Leagues for week 16.

Trade strategy: Propaganda and Paul DePodesta’s recent example

July 15, 2008
A discussion of the topic of propaganda using a recent entry from Paul DePodesta's blog as an example.

Player spotlight: Chase Utley

July 14, 2008
THT Fantasy Focus pays special attention to his power numbers under the light of True Home Runs, a new stat using HitTracker data.

Waiver Wire: National League (Week 15)

July 13, 2008
A look at the National League Waiver Wire pickups for week 15.

Waiver Wire: American League (Week 15)

July 12, 2008
American League Waiver Wire pickups for Week 15.

Trade strategy: Cutting off your opponent’s supply lines

July 11, 2008
Link to one of my trade strategy articles that ran at RotoAuthority.

Moon shots: Introducing “True Home Runs” (HitTracker)

July 09, 2008
A new stat uses HitTracker to project the number of home runs a player should hit

Economics of trading: Price elasticity of demand

June 30, 2008
A look at the economic concept of price elasticity of demand, how it relates to the fantasy baseball trade market, and how you can take advantage of it.

Waiver Wire: American League (Week 13)

June 29, 2008
A look at the American League Waiver Wire pickups for week 13.

Waiver Wire: National League (Week 13)

June 28, 2008
A look at the National League Waiver Wire pickups for week 13.

Player spotlight: Edinson Volquez (PITCHf/x)

June 22, 2008
THT Fantasy Focus uses PITCHf/x to examine Edinson Volquez' success thus far.

Waiver Wire: National League (Week 12)

June 21, 2008
National League Waiver Wire pickups for Week 12.

Waiver Wire: American League (Week 12)

June 21, 2008
American League Waiver Wire pickups for Week 12.

The importance of strategy in fantasy baseball

June 18, 2008
Link to my article at RotoAuthority discussing the importance of strategy in fantasy baseball.

Waiver Wire: National League (Week 11)

June 14, 2008
A look at the National League Waiver Wire pickups for the week.

Waiver Wire: American League (Week 11)

June 13, 2008
A look at the American League Waiver Wire pickups for week 11.

Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Radio Show: Recap

June 12, 2008
A recap of the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Radio Show that I was a guest on last night. Topics include: Edinson Volquez vs. Josh Hamilton, Victor Martinez, Aaron Harange, and sell high candidates, among several spur of the moment discussions.

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