|
May 19, 2013
THT Essentials:
![]()
Rich Barbieri
John Barten Kyle Boddy Brian Borawski James Gentile Matt Hunter Frank Jackson Chris Jaffe Brad Johnson Jason Linden Dan Lependorf Bruce Markusen Jeff Moore Greg Simons Scott Spratt Dave Studeman Shane Tourtellotte Steve Treder And here's the full roster. Now availableYou can now purchase the Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2013, with 300 pages of great content. It's also available on Amazon and Kindle. Read more about it here.
Or you can search by:
THT E-bookThird Base: The Crossroads is THT's e-book, available for $3.99 from the Kindle store. The good news is that anyone can read a Kindle book, even on a PC. So enjoy the best from THT in a new format.Get your very own THT merchandise from our CafePress store. We've got baseball caps, t-shirts, coffee mugs and even wall clocks with the classy THT logo prominently displayed. Also, check out the THT Bookstore. Please support your favorite baseball site by purchasing something today. ![]() All content on this site (including text, graphs, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons License. |
About Derek AmbrosinoDerek Ambrosino spent a substantial part of his youth staring at the backs of baseball cards and began developing a statistically-oriented infatuation with baseball history at a young age. He’s previously worked for MLB Advanced Media. By day, he is a Communications professional within the field of global health.Note: This page displays up to 200 articles at a time. To view a subset of a writer's work, click on one of the following years: 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Derek Ambrosino's ArticlesClick here to view an RSS feed of this writer's articles. Of Uggs and UgglaMay 16, 2013Balancing need and value when shopping on the waiver wire Which batter belongs?May 01, 2013With new names among the fantasy elite, which will still be there at the end? THT Live: The art - not the science - of failureApril 25, 2013Crisis managementApril 17, 2013Avoiding some common strategic pitfalls when dealing with a detrimental injury Hot out of the gateApril 10, 2013Hot starts I'm buying into and some I'm not Cold out of the gateApril 10, 2013Some cold starts that concern me, and some that don't. Who’s next?April 03, 2013Ranking those most likely to inherit closer jobs Has not paying for saves gone too far?March 27, 2013Many adopt a don't-pay-for-saves approach. but that can be an oversimplification. Put your money where your opinions areMarch 19, 2013In an auction, you vote with your dollars, so weigh in when your opinions are strongest Five questions: Colorado RockiesMarch 14, 2013The Rockies probably can't scale the mountain in 2013, but they can map a route for later How much to like Ike?February 26, 20132012 was a tale of two halves for Ike Davis. Which Davis will we see in 2013? Too many stats spoil the brothFebruary 22, 2013Rehab for a league with way too many scoring categories Who is 2013’s top dog?February 21, 2013On the annual debate of who to take first overall in a fantasy draft Back to back to basicsJanuary 18, 2013The strategic implications of having the first or last ordered pick in a snake draft More changes of sceneryDecember 28, 2012How moves to new teams will impact a batch of fantasy-relevant players Changes of sceneryDecember 13, 2012Some marquis names have changed teams; does this help our hurt their fantasy value? What a difference a week makesNovember 28, 2012A small change in league design can make a big difference to user experience THT Live: MLB.com seeking stats stringersNovember 28, 2012Chatting with the mixed Tout Wars champOctober 10, 2012Cory Schwartz offers his take on roster construction strategy Building backwards?September 26, 2012Can you win by spending more on relievers than starters? THT Live: Why the media hopes the 2012 Brewers and Ryan Bruan go awaySeptember 15, 2012Red light, green lightSeptember 12, 2012Analyzing the schedule to try to steal some stolen bases The power of powerSeptember 05, 2012Why we should trust the long ball and the players who hit them Half-baked ideas, Vol. 1August 29, 2012Seedlings of ideas intended to improve the game of baseball and :an experience Every day I’m hustlin’August 22, 2012The concept of hustle is allegedly lost on fantasy baseball, but that's not really the case Saving for tomorrowAugust 15, 2012An early look at potential bullpen shake-ups for next season for those in keeper leagues with looming trade deadlines Haste makes… hayJuly 31, 2012You shouldn't wait much longer to make your trades, except in these instances Trade winds: position playersJuly 17, 2012Position players involved in trade rumors and what a trade would do to their value Trade winds: starting pitchersJuly 10, 2012Some players with trade buzz and what a deal might mean to the fantasy value of each What our FanGraphs partnership means for THT Fantasy readersJuly 05, 2012THT has joined forces with FanGraphs; the real winners will be our readers Buy mediumJune 26, 2012Their owners may think they're selling high, but I don't Resisting the panic playJune 19, 2012There's no need to throw your eggs into one basket yet Sticking to your gunsJune 14, 2012League settings, personal engagement, and THT vs. Fantasy Squared's Fangraphs league How to be a playerJune 05, 2012Staying single and ready to mingle... with the waiver wire Getting the best of the marketMay 29, 2012Meaningful info and still small samples make the trade market fertile this time of year The real replacement level of starting pitchingMay 23, 2012Arms really are worth 90 cents on the dollar when compared to bats Mythbusting - closer editionMay 15, 2012Has the tumultuous closer position really helped validate the don't-pay-for-saves model? Long viewMay 08, 2012Another owner is creating a juggernaut; is there anything you can do? Help him, maybe. THT vs. FangraphsMay 01, 2012A belated introduction to a unique expert league Sustainable profitsApril 17, 2012Players who are outperforming their preseason ranks without playing above their heads. Early impressionsApril 11, 2012We don't yet know much, except how to capitalize on those who think they do Mr. Right nowApril 04, 2012The cost of holding non-MLB players on your active roster Cramming the smart wayMarch 21, 2012If you have limited time to prepare for your draft or auction, how should you spend it? Solve for ADP pt. 2March 14, 2012More fun with players' ADPs and what they'd have to do to live up to them Why I’m not worried about Ryan BraunFebruary 29, 2012Are there reasons to worry about Ryan Braun this season? Solve for ADPFebruary 15, 2012What do some bounce-back and leap-forward candidates have to do in 2012 to justify their ADPs? Making the leap upFebruary 08, 2012Jumping from public leagues to more competitive private leagues Are you mocking me?February 01, 2012More discussion of the recent THT mock draft Ask OliverJanuary 25, 2012What does THT Forecasts have to say about a handful of controversial 2012 fantasy assets? Can you really play it safe?January 18, 2012With the odds stacked against you, is "playing it safe" even possible, let alone advisable? Is autodraft a necessary evil?January 04, 2012Should those who use autodraft be punished for doing so? Getting outside the matrixDecember 23, 2011The liberation of ignoring pre-ranks, plus some discussion of auction nomination strategy RyansDecember 14, 2011One man has two keepers on his roster named Ryan, and shenanigans ensue. The butterfly effectDecember 07, 2011Preparing for the ripple effects of individual draft day decisions Orders of protectionNovember 30, 2011Talent is talent, regardless of who sandwiches it What to make of Matt Kemp in 2012?November 23, 2011How many players do I rank ahead of Matt Kemp for next season? The objective insiderNovember 09, 2011Fantasy sports writing and its unique journalistic virtues Itty bitty Citi?November 03, 2011How might the new dimensions at Citi Field impact David Wright and other Mets players? How does your league stack up?October 26, 2011How do you evaluate the quality of your fantasy league? Looking ahead: THT Fantasy in the offseasonOctober 12, 2011What you should expect between now and April 2012 THT Live: You are going to loseOctober 07, 2011Two’s a crowdOctober 05, 2011Reflecting on my experiences as a co-manager THT Live: Going to WAR for the Cy Young Award?September 30, 2011Taking time to give thanksSeptember 28, 2011Appreciating the commissioner and the THT readers Endgame remindersSeptember 21, 2011Using all the tools and loopholes at your disposal, for offense of defense Stealing stealsSeptember 16, 2011Available players likely to steal some bases on the way out It’s not about youSeptember 07, 2011Thoughts on reuniting with past busts Getting luckyAugust 31, 2011Making your own luck The 300 clubAugust 17, 2011Curtis Granderson and the apotheosis of gallimaufry The little thingsAugust 10, 2011What's an innocuous quirk in the early season can become a source of monumental discontent in the stretch run Approaching endgameAugust 03, 2011You may or may not ever flick the switch, but it wouldn't matter unless you changed the bulb For the haves and have notsJuly 27, 2011Trade deadline advice for those chasing leads, as well as those protecting them. Objects in mirror are closer than they appearJuly 13, 2011... and other rational reminders at midseason NL Waiver Wire: Week 13July 01, 2011A pinch-hit writer takes a different approach to finding bargain-bin talent. Birds of a feather, whateverJune 30, 2011Is it advantageous to roster several players from the same team? The Frugal GourmetJune 22, 2011If you don't love your unbranded assets, who will? Hybrid league updateJune 15, 2011Is a hybrid league the panacea to dead-beating? Approach the benchJune 08, 2011Choosing the proper bench management strategy for your fantasy player profile Alex, Victor, and the infinitely complexJune 01, 2011A single, common roster dilemma is often a microcosm of the your greater strategic questions True liesMay 25, 2011Persuasive arguments to augment a player's value that sound true, but are most likely false Before you close the deal ...May 18, 2011Trading for closers before the MLB trade deadline can be tricky Confessions of a market skepticMay 12, 2011To regulate or deregulate, fantasy baseball, Wall Street, and my existential crisis No-no, not so fastMay 05, 2011Riffing on Liriano's no-hitter Overcoming the scarlet dropApril 27, 2011Why do we consider a player a prince in one league and a pauper in another? Buy tomorrow, sell yesterdayApril 20, 2011"Buy low, sell high" doesn't relate to perception as much as it does to distribution patterns. LIMA’s hidden costsApril 13, 2011The subtle opportunity costs of exercising a LIMA plan Keep it on the DLApril 06, 2011A public service announcement: make use of your hidden roster spots One for you, two for meMarch 30, 2011Greed is good. The benefits of drafting more than your "fair share" of closers. I like Daniel Hudson, but not his in-lawsMarch 16, 2011Some teams' bullpens influence my opinions on their starters Is fantasy sports gambling?March 04, 2011Admit it, we're sinners! Refuting arguments against lumping fantasy sports for stakes with poker and sports gambling Positioning statementsFebruary 23, 2011A look at some players who are slated to expand on their current positional eligibility The Economist: Three observations about money and fantasy sportsFebruary 16, 2011An experiment leads to observations on performance and stakes Silly little ideaFebruary 09, 2011Call me crazy, but I think the inventor of rotisserie baseball should be in the Hall of Fame Read and react pt.2February 02, 2011Brief thoughts on players who appear overvalued, according to their average draft positions. Read and react, part 1January 26, 2011Beginning my 2011 research in earnest, I start by scanning ADPs and reacting to apparent bargains. Capturing the Black SwanJanuary 19, 2011Food for thought about outlying performances and conventional wisdom Why head-to-head?January 12, 2011Many expert and high stakes leagues used the H2H format - why? Department of redundancy departmentDecember 29, 2010Principles to consider when choosing your league's categories Diversify your bondsDecember 22, 2010Perspective on healthy roster diversification across multiple leagues The bare cupboardDecember 14, 2010The implications of a lack of elite AL starting pitchers on AL-only leagues, appropriate strategies, and the dynamics of "runs" The human element: I want to watchDecember 08, 2010Games being televised can tempt us to make precarious line-up decisions The human element: choosing our own fateDecember 01, 2010Some fantasy baseball decisions are not made rationally, but maybe that's OK Bargain shopping in the ALNovember 17, 2010An early look at some American Leaguers who project to be useful, but who won't break the bank. Bargain shopping in the NLNovember 10, 2010An early look at some National Leaguers who project to be useful, but who won't break the bank. Putting the group in groupthinkNovember 03, 2010Another look at 2011's top 12, from a more conservative point of view Sticker shockOctober 20, 2010Yesterday's bargains are often tomorrow's suckers' bets Aren’t hybrids all the rage?October 13, 2010Fear and loathing in league design, inaugural edition. Mandatory end of season introspectionOctober 06, 2010Looking back at some of my "usual suspects" and an update regarding last week's column. Is thinking with your head overrated?September 29, 2010Irrational risks in the pursuit of glory; yay or nay? Cool story, broSeptember 22, 2010A self-indulgent tale of an epic fantasy day, with a side of lesson Like taking candy from a BarajasSeptember 15, 2010Trying to eke some stolen bases; who's the easiest to take 'em from? Making a run for—or from—the moneySeptember 08, 2010The runs scored category and its battle with me to shed its second-class citizenship. Endgame aggressionSeptember 01, 2010There aren't many tomorrows left; it's time to forfeit a bit of quality for quantity's sake I don’t need to know my role; I know my rightsAugust 25, 2010Should non-contenders be barred from trading with contenders down the stretch? How much injury risk is too much?August 18, 2010Checking in on an attempt to nurse an April infirmary into a September juggernaut. Sacred cows make the best burgersAugust 11, 2010Reading the market and taking advantage of last-minute keeper deals How do we know we’re right?August 04, 2010What must we establish to rightly claim credit for our predictions? WHIP it goodJuly 28, 2010Giving Carl Pavano's performance the respect it deserves. Faith no more?July 21, 2010More than halfway though the season, are underperforming players still buy-low candidates, or are they sunken costs? The mysteries of bulk buyingJuly 14, 2010It can be quite difficult to evaluate the benefits of trades involving many players. Impending closer shake-ups and risk managementJuly 07, 2010To double down or buy insurance? Teaching myself a lesson in opportunity costJune 30, 2010What are we costing ourselves by holding on to our fringe assets? The ethicist part two: pulling a fast oneJune 23, 2010What must I disclose when shopping a lemon? The Ethicist: Fantasy Baseball EditionJune 16, 2010In which I extrapolate the "trolley problem." Confessions of a conspiracy theorist: who’s watching the watchers?June 09, 2010How do we know that our league providers are correctly valuing stat lines? Relief for your toxic assetsJune 02, 2010A potential way of handling season-ending injuries to keepers Confessions of a market skeptic: endowment effect editionMay 26, 2010Does the endowment effect actually hinder our abilities to improve our teams? Checking in on my “usual suspects”May 19, 2010Players' stats may not yet be predictive, but hard decisions must be made What should fantasy baseball “be about?” part 2May 12, 2010Owners in your league will behave however you tell them to behave. What should fantasy baseball “be about?” part 1May 05, 2010League settings and their underlying philosophical values, limiting transactions edition. Capacity building 101: so, tell me more about this databaseApril 28, 2010Before we can to take fantasy baseball analysis to the next level, we need some very basic infrastructure. Most debates really boil down to semanticsApril 20, 2010The clash of the quants and geniuses is under way, but do we know what victory looks like? Punt your way to the front?April 14, 2010Head-to-head leagues offer increased freedom to experiment with bold tactics. Keeping things in perspectiveApril 07, 2010Taking it back to fantasy 101 to fight fantasy hypochondria. The usual suspectsMarch 31, 2010Did I outsmart the market, or myself? Last year’s modelsMarch 24, 2010A look at seven similarly valued players, who were once more sought after. Save me a sliceMarch 17, 2010Elite closers: the pizza of fantasy baseball. Petty thievesMarch 10, 2010Premium speed at discount prices. The mockery of mock draftsMarch 03, 2010Why mock drafts may not be as useful and predictive as they sound in theory. Friendship and disappointmentFebruary 24, 2010Three players likely to disappoint, and the joys of friend-based leagues. Why discretion is the better part of valorFebruary 17, 2010Further exploring the dangers of deferring drafting studs for seemingly similarly skilled sleepers. Bucking the systemFebruary 10, 2010Can radically altering a league structure proactively eliminate deadbeats? This isn’t fantasy baseball, JoeFebruary 03, 2010Misconceptions of players' actual values and their fantasy stock Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame pt. 3 (2006 – 2010)January 27, 2010The final installment of my Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame series Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame pt. 2 (2001 – 2005)January 19, 2010in which I continue to use such an honorable platform for self-indulgent fodder Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame pt. 1 (1995 – 2000)January 11, 2010Self-indulgent, non-helpful fodder you know you want to read! New year’s resolutionsJanuary 04, 2010Novel thoughts about 2010 in wrapped in a stale gimmick of a column theme. Festivus time: the airing of grievancesDecember 21, 2009Some "proposals" are even worse than the movie Late bloomers or one-hit wonders?December 14, 2009Will three of last season's unexpected breakouts Aaron Hill, Russell Branyan and Mark Reynolds retain their value in 2010 Does hometown bias exist in competitive fantasy leagues?December 07, 2009Soliciting your experiences with hometown bias and fantasy baseball One category roar, five category snoreNovember 30, 2009How does the way a player's value is dispersed across categories affect his marketability? Killing two birds with one stoneNovember 23, 2009The additional benefits of drafting for upside in deep leagues Fetch me my slippersNovember 16, 2009Yesterday’s busts are tomorrow’s value picks When a cigar is not just a cigarNovember 09, 2009Behind the scenes of all-"expert" fantasy drafts. Approaching unconscious competenceNovember 02, 2009What’s the most efficient way to prepare for next season? Evaluating the A-Rod experimentOctober 26, 2009A-Rod plus an interim replacement may have proved one of the wisest investments on draft day Fantasy snobbery and league legitimacyOctober 19, 2009Are more advanced leagues necessarily of better overall quality? Protecting me from myselfOctober 14, 2009Identifying and addressing our own counterproductive tendencies Beware he who has little to loseOctober 05, 2009What are the implications of relying on pitcher counting stats versus rate stats during H2H playoffs? Gonzo managingSeptember 26, 2009Fear and loathing in the last week of the season What to make of pre-ranks part 2September 21, 2009How did Yahoo do pre-ranking players 51-100? What to make of pre-ranks?September 14, 2009Are Yahoo's pre-ranks a useful tool when choosing between players? Slightly deeper keepersSeptember 09, 2009Five players who disappointed this year, but should rebound next season Playing for keeps (Part 2)August 31, 2009A look at eight more players on keeper bubbles Playing for keepsAugust 23, 2009What to make of the keeper-status of some of this year's market movers. | ||||