February 9, 2012
Now Available for 2012 THT Essentials: Now Available The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2012, an annual "must buy" for all baseball fans, is now shipping. Read this article to learn more about it.
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A baseball card mystery: Bill Sudakis and the strange light (5)
Super at the right time (2) Would the Nationals consider holding back Strasburg? (3) Edwin Jackson finally signs (3) A baseball card mystery: Ken Holtzman’s 1974 Topps card (15)  
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Wednesday, February 08, 201220,000 days since Herb Score’s injuryby Chris Jaffe20,000 days ago, a promising young career came to a screeching halt. It was May 7, 1957, and the Cleveland Indians hosted the New York Yankees. On the mound for the home team was Herb Score, one of the brightest young stars in the game. Two years earlier, a then 21-year-old Score had a national coming out party, fanning 16 batters in a 4-1 victory. In his 1955 rookie season, he went 16-10 with a league-leading 245 strikeouts. Only one other pitcher in the AL struck out over 160. He averaged 9.7 K/9 in a league that averaged 4.4. The next year, Score was even better, enjoying his first 20-win season while leading the league in shutouts, ERA+ and, of course, strikeouts. His 263 punchouts that year were 71 more than runner up Billy Pierce. He was so well thought of that before the 1957 season began, the rival Red Sox offered the Indians $1,000,000 for Score—and Cleveland turned down Boston. That’s how highly his team thought of him. The early going in 1957 made the Cleveland front office look smart. In his first four games, Score was 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 35.1 innings. In his wins, he’d allowed one run in 18 innings. Even in his other games he was impressive. He fanned 10 in 11 frames in his only loss, and in a no-decision he fanned 12 while recording 19 outs. Not bad. That led up to the game occurring 20,000 days ago. Against the defending world champion Yankees, Score quickly dispatched leadoff hitter Hank Bauer on a groundout and then faced Gil McDougald. It was the at-bat that nearly ended Score’s career and ruined his promise. McDougald made solid contact with a Score offering and sent a screaming liner right back up the middle—and right into Score’s eye socket. He was bloodied and suffered several broken bones in his face. Eventually Score recovered, but he would not pitch again that season. Early in 1958, it looked like he was on the way back as he threw a complete-game shutout with 13 strikeouts against the White Sox on April 23, 1958. Then, in his next start against Washington, Score injured his arm and had to change his delivery. Was it the eye injury that ruined him or the less dramatic arm injury? Normally, the arm means the most, but how did missing 11 months due to an eye injury affect his arm strength? Score probably was headed for an arm injury even without his ghastly eye socket injury. He not only struck out a lot of batters, but he walked tons, as well. In his first start in 195,7 he was in double digits in walks and strikeouts, for instance. That’s a lot of mileage on an arm. Regardless of what might’ve happened, what did happen is that a line drive shattered Score’s eye socket, and a once promising career never really lived up to its hope after that. And that shattering line drive happened exactly 20,000 days ago. Oh – and there’s one little side note from that game. After Score left, Cleveland had to put veteran Bob Lemon in to pitch. He lasted the rest of the game and his 8.1 innings pitched proved to be the longest relief appearance of his career. He posted the win as the Indians topped the Yankees, 3-2. Aside from that, plenty of other baseball events celebrate their “day-versary” or anniversary today. Here they are, with the better ones in bold if you’d prefer to just skim the list. Click for more... Tuesday, February 07, 2012A baseball card mystery: Bill Sudakis and the strange lightby Bruce MarkusenDiehard Yankee fans of a certain age will remember Bill Sudakis. Tall, muscular, and blond-haired, Sudakis brought a defined and distinctive look to the baseball field. He had the appearance of a California surfer. He also reminded me of the actor David Soul, who famously played Detective Ken Hutchinson in the 1970s cop drama, “Starsky and Hutch.” As a ballplayer, Sudakis was a journeyman. At one time, he appeared to be a star third baseman in-the-making, part of a young and promising Dodgers team known as “The Mod Squad.” But the Dodgers had depth at third base and felt that Sudakis could withstand the strains of catching, so they tried him behind the plate. Unfortunately, the Dodgers were wrong; Sudakis developed knee trouble. He also struggled in making the transition to catching, particularly when it came to throwing out opposing baserunners. In 38 games behind the plate in 1970, Sudakis threw out six percent of base stealers. That’s no misprint, six percent. During the spring of 1972, the Dodgers tried to slip the switch-hitting Sudakis through waivers, but the Mets put in a claim, sent the waiver fee to the Dodgers, and made him part of their bench. Continuing knee problems derailed his time with the Mets, who ended up trading him to Texas. From there, he returned to New York, this time with the Yankees, where he became a third-string catcher behind Thurman Munson and Rick Dempsey. Sudakis' tenure with the Yankees would become memorable, not for his role as a utility man-DH, but for a vicious fistfight with Dempsey at the famed Pfister Hotel in Milwaukee. Late in the 1974 season, Sudakis and Dempsey engaged in a knockdown brawl, even launching pieces of hotel furniture at each other like flying projectiles. (According to one report, one of the combatants threw a lamp as if it were a javelin.) Remarkably, neither man suffered a serious injury. A peace-loving Bobby Murcer broke up the fisticuffs, only to suffer a broken pinky finger in the process. The loss of Murcer, one of the best players on the team, ended up costing the Yankees, who were desperately trying to win the American League East on the final weekend of the season.  Sudakis’ 1975 Topps card has always intrigued me, especially in regard to the lighting. I cannot tell whether this photograph was taken at the height of a sunny afternoon or during a night game. At first glance, it looks like a night game, with the bright light around the plate magnified by a stanchion located up above. Topps, however, almost never took pictures of players during night games. Almost all of their photographs were taken during the daytime, either before or during afternoon games. So perhaps this is a case of the cameraman snapping the shot of Sudakis while looking into the sun, making the light around home plate appear almost artificial in its brightness. The other question has to do with the location. I cannot figure out which ballpark provided the setting for this photograph. I’m tempted to say Texas, or perhaps Baltimore, but I’m not sure. Or maybe it was taken in Milwaukee, the site of Sudakis’ great Yankee infamy. So where did this take place? And was it taken during the night or the daytime? 20,000 days since Hank Aaron’s worst gameby Chris JaffeEveryone has their bad days on the job. Everyone has terrible days on the job. Thus it’s no surprise that the best baseball players have absolutely rotten games. And 20,000 days ago, one of the game’s best had maybe his worst game ever It was Hammering Hank Aaron, playing for the Milwaukee Braves against the Brooklyn Dodgers on May 6, 1957. He should’ve been feeling good heading into the day. The day before he’d gone 4-for-5 with a double and a homer. Two days before that he’d missed the cycle by a single. The day before that he’d gone 5-for-6. Yeah, that’s pretty good. But all yins must have their yang, and today would be that day for Aaron. It started off generically enough. In the first inning, he harmlessly flew out against a 20-year-old Don Drysdale, making just his 15th big league start. Two innings later Aaron got another chance against Drysdale. With the Braves trailing 3-1 and a runner on first, Aaron represented the tying run. However, this time he helplessly fanned on four pitches. Well, it’s not an ideal start but he still had plenty of time left. In the fifth, it was still a 3-1 Dodger leader when Aaron came up in a crucial situation. The Braves had two on and two out against a struggling Drysdale. This was Aaron's chance to do some damage. He quickly fell behind, no balls to two strikes, but then battled Drysdale for several pitches evening the count. Then Aaron hit one into play – only to see it turn into an inning-ending double play. No, that can’t be what he hoped would happen. Later, in the seventh, Aaron came up a fourth time against Drysdale, and again it was a crucial situation. It proved to be the highlight of Aaron’s day. With runners on second and third and two out, Drysdale pitched around Aaron, walking him to load the bases. The Dodgers went to their bullpen and got out of the jam. And on the game went. In the ninth, Aaron came up for the fifth time on the day. At this point, the game was tied 3-3 and Milwaukee had the winning run on first base with two out. Aaron couldn’t help him though, and an easy fly out ended the inning. To date, he’d come up with six runners on base, advanced none, and driven in none. He’d also ended two innings. But the game went into extra innings, and wouldn’t you know it—in the 11th inning Aaron came up. (As it happens, it’s the sixth straight odd-numbered inning for him to appear in.) Again there were runners on base—first and second this time—and again there were two outs. Aaron grounded out to second base to end the inning. He was now 0-for-5 on the day with a walk. Both teams scored once in the 12th, and the game soldiered on. It wouldn’t be an odd-numbered inning without an Aaron appearance, and sure enough he came up with two out and a runner on first in the 13th frame. This time he meekly tapped one back to pitcher Roger Craig for the ground out. A Dodger homer in the 14th ensured there wouldn’t be another chance for Aaron to come up. Here was Aaron’s day: seven times up, one walk, but no hits in seven plate appearances. There was at least one runner on base in six of his seven plate appearances – nine runners hoping to score in all. None of them scored, and Aaron never advanced a single one. He ended four separate innings with an out. Yeah, that’s a bad day. He’d have four other 0-for-6 games, but this was the only one in which he also hit into a double play along the way. In all but one of them he also drew a walk (and in the remaining game he reached base on error, stole a base, and scored a run). In all, it was a perfectly miserable day that saw him blow multiple chances to help his team win. But, being Hank Aaron, the day’s disappointment left no lingering effect. The next day he was 2-for-4 with a triple. He wound up winning the NL MVP that year. Aside from that, many other events celebrate their anniversary or “day-versary” today. Here they are, with the better ones in bold if you’d prefer to skim. Click for more... Monday, February 06, 2012Super at the right timeby Joe DistelheimThe message may be: Never give up. Or perhaps it's: We live in an age where mediocrity is good enough. Over the past year in sports:
Would the Nationals consider holding back Strasburg?by Brad JohnsonThe signing of Edwin Jackson presents the Nationals with the kind of problem that every club strives for—they have more starting pitchers than rotation slots. They actually have a LOT more starting pitchers than spots. Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and Jackson are all locks while Chien-Ming Wang, John Lannan, and Ross Detwiler will battle for the last spot. Tom Gorzelanny makes for an above-replacement-level also ran. The Nationals have another rotation-related problem. They are on the cusp of relevance. Their improvements this offseason should put them within shouting distance of the Wild Card (especially if there are two in 2012). Few will be surprised if the Nationals are playing for a playoff berth when the calendar turns to September. That's not the problem, though. The problem is, their ace, Strasburg, is expected to be on a fairly strict innings cap in 2012 that will expire right as the team is pushing for the playoffs. But what if the Nationals solved one problem with another by optioning Strasburg to extended spring training, using two of Lannan, Wang, and Detwiler through April, and then activating Strasburg once his innings cap stretches into October? There are certain attractive elements to that plan. While a win is a win no matter what month it comes in, knowing Strasburg is available late in the season to stifle the competition could serve as a rallying point for the team. And the team's financial planners probably like the idea of Strasburg pitching in meaningful September games in front of a full house. The Nationals traditionally draw poorly in September. More importantly, Strasburg would be available to pitch in the postseason. The club would find it hard to resist the urge to use Strasburg—innings cap or no—but a delayed start to 2012 means he could throw deep into games against the Phillies, Diamondbacks, or whatever other team reaches the postseason. Of course, many of you out in reader land are shaking your head, and you are probably right to do so. Despite certain alluring qualities, this plan has its share of problems. To the best of my knowledge, no club has tried this before. The Nationals could and should be wary about wading into uncharted waters with their generational talent. It's also unclear if the club could successfully run Strasburg through a delayed spring training. They would have to design a unique, delayed schedule, which could have unexpected consequences. Holding him back also changes the club's incentives. If Strasburg reaches his innings cap in late August, the club is more likely to stick with the original plan of shutting him down. If he reached his limit in late September, the club would have an awfully difficult time shutting him down right before the playoffs. The Nationals could always thumb their nose at their innings cap. Research has repeatedly shown that the Verducci Effect is largely hogwash. Clubs probably shouldn't limit their pitchers based purely on innings, but rather on a robust personal evaluation of each player. Warning signs like reduced velocity or movement, physical fatigue, and release point consistency should be monitored closely. By the end of August, the Nationals may be satisfied that Strasburg has the physical durability to continue into October. The Nationals may consider such an idea when trying to solve their two "problems." Or it may never cross their minds. At the end of the day, it would be a shame for the Nationals to reach the postseason for the first time only to have their best pitcher unavailable because of an innings cap. Friday, February 03, 201210,000 days: 500th homer for Mr. Octoberby Chris JaffeTen thousand days ago, Reggie Jackson made a bit of baseball history for himself. On Sept. 17, 1984, the most feared slugger of his generation did something long expected of him, bashing his 500th career home run. It came in the seventh inning off current Padres manager Bud Black. It was the only bad pitch Black threw that night, as he led the Royals to an easy 10-1 win over Jackson’s Angels. That shot, though, made Jackson the 13th member of the 500 home run club. There are currently 25 members, so exactly as many men have joined the club since Reggie Jackson did as joined it before him. Perhaps you wouldn’t expect that. After all, there have been only 27 seasons since Jackson hit No. 500. But it’s worth noting there have been nearly as many homers hit from Opening Day 1985 as beforehand. In those last 27 seasons, baseball has had 120,775 homers, which is 46 percent of all homers hit in baseball history. Then again, maybe you would expect there to be that many homers hit in recent times. There is expansion, PEDs, and possibly juiced ball (league-wide home rates went up rather oddly prior to the 1998 home run race and all that). It’s also worth noting that the upsurge in members of the 500 home run club actually isn’t a new thing. It also happened during Jackson’s career. A month before Jackson debuted, Mickey Mantle became the sixth member of the club. Four years and four months later, Frank Robinson became the 11th member. The club more than doubled in five seasons with Mantle, Robinson, Ernie Banks, Eddie Mathews, Harmon Killebrew and Hank Aaron all joining it. And Willie Mays entered the club just a little before them, too. As for Reggie, he ended his career with 563 dingers. His favorite victim was former White Sox knuckleballer Wilbur Wood, who surrendered eight blasts to Jackson. Jackson’s 563 home runs included 10 walk-off homers and four inside-the-park shots. In fact, one homer was both a walk-off and an inside-the-park homer. That came against Boston’s Sonny Siebert in the second game of a doubleheader on Aug. 22, 1971. It was the last of his career inside-the-park homers. Jackson also belted six pinch-hit homers in his career. Two of them were grand slams. Once pinch-hit slam came off Chicago’s Terry Forster on Aug. 22, 1976—exactly five years after his inside-the-park walk-off blast. Reggie really liked Aug. 22, I suppose. In all, he blasted 11 slams, pinch-hit or otherwise. Despite that, according to WPA, his clutchest home run was neither a grand slam nor a walk-off home run. It was a three-run homer in the top of the ninth with two outs and his Angels trailing Toronto 6-4 on June 18, 1983. That gave California a 7-6 lead and gave Jackson a value of 0.724 WPA with one swing. It’s interesting that his best WPA home run would come against a Blue Jay. In general Jackson had trouble homering off Toronto pitchers. He faced longtime Blue Jay Jim Clancy 62 times without ever homering against him. That’s the most plate appearances he ever had against a pitcher without a homer. The runner-up with 55 PA is Dave Stieb, Clancy’s longtime teammate. Regardless, Jackson did get to 500 homers, and it happened exactly 10,000 days ago. Aside from that, many other events celebrate their anniversary or “day-versary” today. Here they are, with the better ones in bold if you’d prefer to just skim the list. Click for more... Thursday, February 02, 2012Edwin Jackson finally signsby Matt FilippiFans had been waiting patiently for the last chip to fall. All of the big free agents had signed (Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, C.J. Wilson, etc.) except for one. That one was Edwin Jackson, and he signed with the Washington Nationals yesterday for one year worth somewhere around $10 million. At first glance, this looks like a pretty good deal for the Nats. First, let’s take a look at it from Jackson’s point of view. No teams were biting on his original request for five years and $60 million, and a lot of teams didn’t even want him for three years. Despite the small amount of very good starting pitching on the market, teams didn’t want to overpay for someone as inconsistent as E-Jax. His strikeout and walk rates seem to fluctuate by about one per nine innings every season, and despite his FIP being in the threes both of the last two seasons, he’s still a gamble because of his unpredictable inputs. He was still able to get good money for the lone year that he signed for, and he’s able to hit the market again next offseason at the still ripe age of 29 for hopefully a longer and more lucrative deal. This all being said, the Nationals definitely got the better part of the deal. They are getting a 28-year-old pitcher who has made 30-plus starts each of the last five seasons and whose numbers are trending upward. Jackson will join a very young rotation headlined by Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmermann. This should prove to be a very strong staff, and it gives the Nationals some pitching. With a full rotation, it’s not a far-fetched idea that they could move a starter and turn it into something else. I’m not sure how much they can get back for John Lannan since he’s not a high strikeout guy, but he could definitely have some value to a team that needs a back-end piece. With a solid team, a weak National League, and another wild card being added to October, the Nats definitely can’t be counted out, so expect them to contend for a playoff spot in 2012. The great part of this deal is that Washington gets Jackson as an innings eater, and they don’t have to worry about him sustaining his strikeout or walk numbers over a long period of time because it’s only a one-year pact. It’s a good move all around, and now with the last big fish of the offseason being fried, we can finally look forward to the start of spring training. THT Forecasts - 2012 fantasy price guidesby Greg TamerIn addition to the Oliver database, reports, projections, and watch lists, THT Forecasts also has a fantasy price guide that you can customize with your league specifications (although note that not all stat categories you can imagine are present yet; we'll work on that!). Also, the fantasy price guides are updated as the season progresses and new data are added to the Oliver database, thus changing the projections for the remainder of the season to assist you with waiver wire pick-ups, trades, etc.. You can then return to your price guide at the end of the season to evaluate players and see what they should have been worth before the season started (thus best to transfer and save your pre-season fantasy price guide for comparison). Note that the fantasy price guide lists players according to their dollar values for an auction draft, but the rankings can still be applied to a snake draft. For a league that uses a points structure, you can switch to the customizable reports, download and open them with your favorite spreadsheet, and then include your stat-cat modifiers to calculate point totals for the players. Finally, using Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball's default league auction and roto settings, here are the top projected offensive players: Pos Players 2012 Value C Mike Napoli $34 1B Albert Pujols $55 2B Dan Uggla $30 3B Jose Bautista $40 SS Troy Tulowitzki $32 OF Matt Kemp $57 OF Mike Stanton $47 OF Ryan Braun $44 Util Miguel Cabrera $52 Util Joey Votto $46THT Forecasts is available for the 2012 season, with Brian Cartwright's Oliver database providing over 9000 projections for major and minor leaguers. Visit Forecasts today to learn more and sign up for only $14.95! Tuesday, January 31, 2012A baseball card mystery: Ken Holtzman’s 1974 Topps cardby Bruce MarkusenWhether you call it gold or mustard or just plain old yellow, the color simply glows on the 1974 Topps card of the underrated Ken Holtzman. A’s owner Charlie Finley liked to refer to this color as “California Gold,” which may or may not be available at your local paint store.  By 1972, the A’s switched from a button-down, vested look to a pullover design, but retained the green and gold color scheme. They generally wore white pants, switching the jersey color from green to gold on a given day. For Sunday home games, the A’s wore all-white uniforms. Only occasionally during the 1973 and ‘74 seasons did the A’s sport the all-green or the all-gold look, the latter being quite evident on Holtzman’s 1974 card. Given the relatively few number of times that the A’s used the all-gold uniforms, I’m wondering if it’s possible to pinpoint the exact date of the game seen on the Holtzman card. We have only a few clues. The photo, presumably from the 1973 season, appears to have been taken at the Oakland Coliseum. Obviously, it is a day game. We can assume that it is not a Sunday afternoon game, due to the absence of the all-white uniforms. We also know that Reggie Jackson, seen in the background, was playing the outfield that day, most likely in right field. This might be our most challenging baseball card mystery to date. Most of the time, I’ve been confident that our sharp readers would come up with a correct answer, and they have. But this time, I’m not so sure due to the lack of information. Do we have a sufficient number of clues to pinpoint the date? Well, it’s worth a shot. 10,000 days since Carlton becomes Phillies win leaderby Chris Jaffe10,000 days ago (a “day-versary” as I call it), Steve Carlton made a bit of history for himself. On Sept. 14, 1984, he pitched 6.2 IP to earn a victory over the Expos. In was his 312th career victory, and more important for today’s item, it was win No. 235 with the Philadelphia Phillies. That win made him the all-time franchise leader with one more than fellow Hall of Famer Robin Roberts. Among other things, it’s the last time any of the pre-expansion franchise teams gained a new all-time franchise win leader. Of the elder 16 teams, two have an all-time winner whose career took place entirely in the deadball era: The Giants and A's with Christy Mathewson and Eddie Plank. The all-time winner for four more began in the deadball period: Detroit, Washington/Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati had Hooks Dauss, Walter Johnson, Wilbur Cooper, and Eppa Rixey respectively. Both Chicago all-time winners pitched in the years between the world wars: Charlie Root with the Cubs, and Ted Lyons on the South Side. Cleveland’s Bob Feller also began before WWII. Among the pitchers shortly after WWII, only two are all-time franchise champions: The Braves’ Warren Spahn, and Whitey Ford. Since Whitey Ford began all-time franchise win leader in the late 1960s, only four pre-expansion franchises have changed their all-time win leader. The Orioles actually did it twice. In 1971, Dave McNally passed up previous leader Urban Shocker. Six years later, Jim Palmer surpassed McNally on his way to 268 Baltimore wins. In 1972, Bob Gibson became the all-time Cardinals leader. In 1979, Don Sutton became the all-time Dodgers leader. So it happened four times to three pre-expansion franchises in the 1970s, but since then it has only happened once, with Steve Carlton and the Phillies. Obviously, there’s one clear explanation for this: Free agency. Keeping a terrific pitcher for a prolonged period of time has gotten much harder. In fact, there have been only three pitchers who debuted in the free agency era who have won 200 games for one franchise. Andy Pettitte won 203 with the Yankees and longtime teammates Tom Glavine and John Smoltz accrued 244 and 210 wins each with the Braves. (It should be noted that Glavine won enough games to be franchise leader for most pre-expansion teams, but not the one he happened to play for.) Getting back to Steve Carlton, his franchise-record setting win was near the end of the line for him. He’d pitch another year and a half with the Phillies, posting a record of 6-16 in the process. Still, his 241 wins as a Phillie is not only their record, but it’s also tied for 14th most any pitcher has ever had with a franchise. Here’s the all-time leaderboard Wins Pitcher 417 Walter Johnson 372 Christy Mathewson 356 Warren Spahn 329 Kid Nichols 284 Eddie Plank 268 Phil Niekro 268 Jim Palmer 266 Bob Feller 260 Ted Lyons 254 Red Faber 253 Carl Hubbell 251 Bob Gibson 244 Tom Glavine 241 Steve Carlton 241 Cy Young Cy Young’s 241 wins came with the Cleveland Spiders, a team that no longer exists. But it’s not bad for Carlton to be tied with him. Aside from that, many other events celebrate their anniversary or “day-versary” today. Here they are, with the better ones in bold for those who prefer to skim the list: Click for more... | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||