July 3, 2009
Rich Barbieri
John Barten Brian Borawski Craig Brown Evan Brunell David Gassko Jonathan Hale Brandon Isleib
Chris Jaffe
Bruce Markusen Harry Pavlidis Jeff Sackmann Dave Studeman Steve Treder Bryan Tsao Tuck! Dan Turkenkopf Colin Wyers Geoff Young John Brattain And here's the full roster.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2009How reliable is UZR?Ultimate Zone Rating is now everyone's favorite defensive stat on the Internet. But how reliable is it? Let's define reliable as year to year persistance. It's not the only definition, but it'll do. We'll measure it using weighted correlation coefficient. And for good measure, we'll take a look at how to use it to regress to the mean. And for free, we'll throw in a look at wOBA, a form of linear weights per plate appearance, as a point of reference. In order to get this to work out correctly, we need to convert UZR into a rate stat. (Okay, maybe we don't, but it's the only way I've found so far.) What I did was take Chris Dial's methodology for converting STATS Zone Rating into a UZR-like plus-minus rating and back-calculate a number that looks like ZR from a player's UZR and their expected outs. And now, the results of that trial:
I split UZR up by infield and outfield; it could be productive to further break down by position. I looked at stats from 2002-2008, yearly totals only. (I did the same with wOBA to provide an apples to apples comparison.) The first column is the average number of observations - either estimated chances (expected outs divided by average zone rating) for UZR or plate appearances for wOBA. Next is the correlation between one year and the next. (It's weighted by the harmonic mean of the chances in the two seasons.) Following is the constant number of observations needed to regress to the mean, using this basic formula: (Player's Rate * Observations + League Average Rate * Constant) / (Observations + Constant)And the last column is that expressed as a percent. If that figure was 50%, then for a player with the number of observations in column one, you would put equal weight on his performance and on the league mean to estimate his true talent level. The takeaway:
Sunday, June 28, 2009Valuing the intentional walkThe most popular way of measuring the run impact of a batting outcome is called linear weights, first introduced by Pete Palmer in the 1980’s and discussed at length in the Sabermetric Wiki. Using linear weights, you can compare the impact of a single to a double, or a walk to a home run. The linear weight value of an intentional walk, for instance, is usually stated as being between .16 and .18 runs. That’s what you get when you calculate the expected runs for the BaseOut situation that exists after each intentional walk, subtracting the expected runs for the BaseOut situation that existed before the intentional walk, and dividing by the number of intentional walks. This "Expected Runs" method is the most common method for calculating the linear weight of any event. But it isn’t the only method, and for some events like intentional walks, steals, caught stealing, and bunts, it isn’t the best method. The alternative method for calculating linear weights is described in detail in The Book (Tango, Lichtman, and Dolphin) on pages 17-22 and the values for events is shown in their Table 4. Simplified, the alternative method substitutes the actual runs scored after an event in the remainder of the inning for the expected runs for the resulting BaseOut state used in the "Expected Runs" method. Usually the Expected Runs method is preferable because it normalizes to an average lineup for most events, and removing the context of lineup improves the predictive ability of the linear weight. But for strategic events, like intentional walks attempting a steal or bunting, it is better to include the context of the actual lineup, because that context is a major factor in the strategic decision to attempt that play. For example, the defensive team can elect to intentionally walk any batter, even the leadoff batter, if it wants to. But the intentional walk is usually reserved for certain BaseOut situations, types of batters and places in the lineup. Both methods of calculating linear weights take into account the actual BaseOut situation in which it occurs (that is why both methods have a value for the intentional walk that is lower than a non-intentional walk), but only the actual runs method includes the factor of the actual lineup position in which the intentional walk occurs. Here are the linear run values calculated by both methods over the last four years. As you can see, the "Actual runs" method yields a result that is typically a tenth of a run lower than the "Expected Runs" method. Intentional Walk Linear Weight Value
Year N Total Exp Runs Total Exp Runs Total Actual Runs LW EXP Runs LW ACT Runs
Before After After
2005 1216 932 1148 1038 0.177 0.087
2006 1410 1067 1318 1217 0.177 0.106
2007 1323 1016 1249 1129 0.176 0.085
2008 1310 974 1220 1065 0.187 0.069
Total 5259 3990 4935 4449 0.180 0.087Whether the particularly low value for 2008 calculated by the actual runs method is just a sample size aberration or whether it is a result of better insight by teams into when to intentionally walk a batter will take several more years of data to figure out. I suggest that the average linear weight value for the last 4 years by the "Actual Runs" method , .09 runs, be used for all analysis of a batter’s offensive value. Bullpen usage chartDaily Baseball Data has a nice little feature: a table of each team's most recent bullpen usage. You can use this page to view how often relievers have pitched in the last four to seven days, and how effective they were. It's useful info and well-presented. Citi Field’s new dimensionsESPN Fantasy has a detailed review of Citi Field's impact on David Wright's hitting, including the impact on his home runs. Supplied with data by the formidable Greg Rybarczyk, they make a good case that Mets' hitters have lost a lot of home runs to the new Citi Field dimensions. But something doesn't add up for me. The Mets have actually hit and allowed more home runs at home than on the road, 62 vs. 51. In other words, this year's very simple home run park factor of 1.12 would favor Citi. Plus, Greg's data calculates that the Mets and their opponents would have hit 34 more home runs if they were still playing at Shea. That would be a total of 96 home runs at Shea this year, which would give it the largest home run park factor in the majors (1.74). The second highest would be Yankee Stadium at 1.51. I may be wrong, but I don't think Shea was ever known as an extreme home run park. It could be that Citi Field is indeed a terrible place for home run hitting, but I think I'll wait a little while before drawing any conclusions. Saturday, June 27, 2009This year’s dramaThere's a new Batted Ball Report available for those who have pre-purchased the 2010 THT Annual. This week's report finds a surprising strength of Mark Reynolds' and also asks which teams are at the most critical stage of the season—and which aren't? You can download it from the usual place. Friday, June 26, 2009The manager bumpJim Tracy is off to an incredible start as manager of the Rockies. As of this writing the Rockies are 19-7 since Tracy took the helm, including a streak of winning 18 games out of 19. Quite a contrast from Clint Hurdle's 18-28 start to the season. Now, being a lifelong Rockies fan (despite growing up in Florida and never seeing Colorado before that love was a decade old) and even briefly a Rockies employee, I had seen this movie before. In fact, the recently deposed Hurdle was once the new savior. After taking over for a 6-16 Buddy Bell, Hurdle led the Rockies to a 21-9 record in his first 30 games at the helm in his first managing gig. That's what got me thinking ... is this normal? Does getting rid of the old ball and chain rejuvenate, reinvigorate players? Does a new style of management help players relax? Does the desire to please your new boss make you reach back for a little something extra? Does clearing out old clubhouse tensions and biases create a new, more productive environment? And thus, are there real energies here that are exceptionally managed by the Leyland's and Torre's of the world? We can't specifically tackle any of these questions, but we can approach them in the aggregate. Click for more... THT Daily: June 26, 2009Major League News for June 26Player News Yesterday’s Results Today’s Games Standings Top Minor League Performances You can always find the most recent THT Daily at http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/content/thtdaily/ Player NewsPlayer Headlines are courtesy of RotoworldXavier Nady (shoulder) removed himself from a rehab appearance Thursday after making an awkward throw from right field. "We don't know what he did yet but it could be the worst-case scenario," general manager Brian Cashman said. "He felt something and that is what we were concerned about." Nady will undergo a variety of tests Friday. "I want to talk to X and see how he feels," Cashman continued. "But it didn't sound good." The outfielder may have to fold and finally undergo Tommy John surgery. Eric Byrnes suffered a fractured left hand when he was hit by a Scott Feldman pitch on Thursday and is expected to miss 4-8 weeks. The Diamondbacks might benefit from A.J. Hinch being unable to force Byrnes into the lineup, at least once Chris Young returns to full strength. They're without a legitimate fourth outfielder now, but Ryan Roberts will likely fill the role. Young and Gerardo Parra should benefit in terms of playing time. Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has benched Jimmy Rollins for two games. Rollins has a measly .211/.254/.328 line this year and is just 7-for-56 since being dropped to sixth in the batting order 13 games ago. He will sit Thursday and Friday and Manuel said he didn't even want Rollins to take batting practice. He wants his shortstop to get away from the game. Who knows if the mental break will work, but it's worth a shot. Armando Galarraga allowed four runs over six innings on Thursday to receive his first win since April in the Tigers' 6-5 victory over the Cubs. Galarraga is back in the win column! He previously hadn't won since April 26. At that time, he was 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA. Seems like years ago, right? Galarraga gave up six hits and one walk while striking out five against the Cubs. He takes a 5.65 ERA into next week's date against the A's in Oakland. Frank Thomas said he is "close" to announcing his retirement. "I'm getting close to announcing my retirement because I just turned 41," Thomas said on ESPN 1000. "I just want to make sure that it's the move I really want to make. I don't want to be one of those guys that keeps coming back and keeps saying, 'I'm unretiring, I'm coming back.' I want to make sure it's out of my system." Thomas may not completely have it out of his system, however, as he added: "I'm still in shape, ready to go, if anything happens." Thomas finished last season with the A's. Pirates optioned RHP Ian Snell to Triple-A Indianapolis. Snell was 2-8 with a 5.36 ERA while battling control problems. GM Neal Huntington said on Wednesday that Snell would remain in the rotation for at least one more start. Not so. A corresponding roster move will be announced on Friday. Geovany Soto tested positive for marijuana while playing for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic in March, announced the International Baseball Federation. This revelation doesn't impact Soto's major league status, although he will be be banned from international play for two years. "While I full acknowledge my inappropriate behavior, I want to assure my fans and my family that this was an isolated incident," Soto said in a statement, while adding that he was "embarrassed by my lapse in judgment." The Cubs said that Soto is drug tested regularly and this was his only positive test. Erik Bedard (shoulder) will throw side sessions on Thursday and Saturday with an eye on a July 4 return in Boston. Bedard will also throw a side session or simulated game next week in New York. He was 5-2 with a 2.47 ERA prior to hitting the DL. Kenji Johjima (broken toe) will be activated from the disabled list on Friday and will start that day's game against the Dodgers. Johjima was placed on the DL on May 26. He made a quick recovery after the club initially expected him to be sidelined for 6-8 weeks. Johjima batted .250/.275/.386 with three home runs and 10 RBI before being shelved. Yesterday’s ResultsFor the full scoop regarding yesterday's games, read "And That Happened" at Shysterball.American League TB 10 PHI 4 (Recap and Boxscore) CIN 7 TOR 5 (Recap and Boxscore) CHA 6 LAN 5 (Recap and Boxscore) DET 6 CHN 5 (Recap and Boxscore) SEA 9 SD 3 (Recap and Boxscore) National League NYA 11 ATL 7 (Recap and Boxscore) FLA 11 BAL 3 (Recap and Boxscore) NYN 3 STL 2 (Recap and Boxscore) WAS 9 BOS 3 (Recap and Boxscore) HOU 5 KC 4 (Recap and Boxscore) MIN 6 MIL 4 (Recap and Boxscore) PIT 3 CLE 2 (Recap and Boxscore) TEX 9 ARI 8 (Recap and Boxscore)Check out Fangraphs' scoreboard to see all the games in action. Today’s GamesNational League --------------- San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers, 8:05 PM (R) Matt Cain (9-1) vs. (R) Yovani Gallardo (7-4) Inter-League ------------ Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox, 4:05 PM (R) Randy Wells (1-3) vs. (R) Jose Contreras (2-6) Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles, 7:05 PM (L) Ross Detwiler (0-3) vs. (R) Brad Bergesen (4-2) Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates, 7:05 PM (R) Gil Meche (4-6) vs. (R) Virgil Vasquez (0-0) Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians, 7:05 PM (R) Aaron Harang (5-7) vs. (L) Jeremy Sowers (1-5) Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays, 7:07 PM (L) Cole Hamels (4-3) vs. (L) Ricky Romero (4-3) New York Yankees at New York Mets, 7:10 PM (L) CC Sabathia (6-4) vs. (R) Mike Pelfrey (5-2) Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves, 7:35 PM (R) Josh Beckett (8-3) vs. (R) Jair Jurrjens (5-5) Florida Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays, 7:38 PM (R) Josh Johnson (7-1) vs. (R) James Shields (6-5) Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, 8:05 PM (R) Justin Verlander (8-3) vs. (L) Wandy Rodriguez (6-6) San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers, 8:05 PM (R) Walter Silva (0-0) vs. (R) Kevin Millwood (7-5) Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals, 8:15 PM (L) Glen Perkins (2-4) vs. (R) Adam Wainwright (8-4) LA Angels of Anaheim at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 PM (R) Jered Weaver (7-3) vs. (R) Billy Buckner (2-4) Colorado Rockies at Oakland Athletics, 10:05 PM (R) Jason Hammel (4-3) vs. (L) Dallas Braden (5-6) Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 PM (L) Jason Vargas (3-2) vs. (L) Clayton Kershaw (4-5) StandingsThe graphics next to each team are called "sparklines.” They depict each team’s performance over the last month. Each "up" bar is a victory and a "down" bar is a loss. There are horizontal lines for home games and red bars represent games decided by two runs or less. "PWins" is short for Projected Wins, based on each team’s Run Differential, and is often a better measure of a team’s true strength. Other team graphs and stats can be found on our Team Page.American League East Pwins Diff BOS 44 28 .611 0.0 43 1 Top Minor League GamesThe following list, provided by First Inning, includes the top minor league batting (based on Runs Created) and pitching (based on Game Score) performances from yesterday.ORG LVL PLAYER AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO Notes HOU A+ Jonathan Gaston... 6 3 2 0 1 0 1 3 R CLE AA Nicholas Weglarz.. 1 1 0 0 1 4 0 BAL A+ Pedro Florimon.... 3 2 0 0 0 2 1 3 SB ATL A+ F. Freeman........ 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 SEA A+ Alex Liddi........ 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 PIT AA Pedro Alvarez..... 4 2 1 0 1 0 0 MIL AA Jonathan Lucroy... 5 2 1 0 1 0 1 4 RBI TEX AAA M. Ramirez........ 3 2 2 0 0 1 0 BOS A- R. Westmoreland... 4 2 1 0 0 1 0 BOS A Oscar Tejeda...... 3 2 1 0 0 1 0 SD A Blake Tekotte..... 3 2 0 0 1 1 0 3 R CHC A+ Brandon Guyer..... 3 2 1 0 0 1 0 ORG LVL PLAYER IP H R ER SO BB HR Notes PHI AA Kyle Drabek....... 7 6 3 3 9 1 0 CLE A Fausto Carmona.... 6 1 0 0 7 1 0 LA AAA Scott Elbert...... 6 1 0 0 7 1 0 SF AA M. Bumgarner...... 8 4 1 1 5 2 0 CHC AAA Mitch Atkins...... 7 3 3 3 4 1 0 13 OF NYY A+ Jeremy Bleich..... 6 6 2 1 6 1 0 12 GB PHI A Jason Knapp....... 5 3 3 2 8 4 0 NYY A- Arodys Vizcaino... 4 3 3 0 7 2 0 NYM AAA Jonathon Niese.... 6 6 1 1 6 2 0 TEX A Carlos Pimentel... 4 2 1 0 5 1 0 OAK A+ Tyson Ross........ 6 3 2 2 5 2 1 SD AA Matthew Latos..... 5 1 0 0 1 0 0
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 Baseball NewsFrom USA TodayBurnett, rolling Yanks, down Blue Jays 4-2 A.J. Burnett quickly got the New York Yankees back to their winning ways.
Dodgers' Ramirez apologizes to fans, teammates Manny Ramirez returned to the big leagues and apologized to fans and his teammates. He refused to talk about steroids, though.
Bases-loaded walk gives Cubs win over Brewers Jake Fox drew a bases-loaded walk off Mike DiFelice to force in the winning run with two outs in the 10th inning, and the Chicago ...
Voters step to ballot box, make smart All-Star choices With just more than a week remaining in All-Star balloting, are the fans getting it right? USA TODAY's Paul White takes a look ...
Returning from suspension, L.A. love fest awaits Ramirez Friday, when the Dodgers open a three-game series in San Diego, Manny Ramirez is scheduled to return to the team after serving ...
Texas new step: Rangers focus on pitching, defense in '09 The thumping of Michael Jackson songs is audible deep into the night in the Texas Rangers clubhouse. Veteran pitcher Eddie Guardado, ...
Mariners snap Yankees' 7-game winning streak, 8-4 Franklin Gutierrez and Russell Branyan homered, leading the Seattle Mariners past CC Sabathia and the Yankees 8-4 on Thursday ...
Braves complete sweep of Phillies, 5-2 Matt Diaz drove in the go-ahead run with an eighth-inning double and the Atlanta Braves beat Philadelphia 5-2 on Thursday night ...
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NYA 40 32 .556 4.0 40 0 
TOR 40 34 .541 5.0 42 -2 
TB 39 35 .527 6.0 44 -5 
BAL 32 40 .444 12.0 30 2 
American League Central
DET 41 31 .569 0.0 39 2 
MIN 37 37 .500 5.0 39 -2 
CHA 35 37 .486 6.0 34 1 
KC 31 40 .437 9.5 30 1 
CLE 30 44 .405 12.0 35 -5 
American League West
TEX 39 32 .549 0.0 37 2 
LAA 38 32 .543 0.5 35 3 
SEA 37 35 .514 2.5 34 3 
OAK 31 40 .437 8.0 32 -1 
National League East Pwins Diff
PHI 37 33 .529 0.0 37 0 
NYN 37 34 .521 0.5 37 0 
FLA 38 36 .514 1.0 35 3 
ATL 34 38 .472 4.0 34 0 
WAS 21 49 .300 16.0 27 -6 
National League Central
STL 40 34 .541 0.0 40 0 
MIL 38 34 .528 1.0 37 1 
CIN 35 36 .493 3.5 34 1 
CHN 34 35 .493 3.5 35 -1 
HOU 33 37 .471 5.0 32 1 
PIT 33 39 .458 6.0 36 -3 
National League West
LAN 47 26 .644 0.0 45 2 
SF 39 32 .549 7.0 37 2 
COL 37 35 .514 9.5 38 -1 
SD 31 40 .437 15.0 27 4 
ARI 30 43 .411 17.0 33 -3 