February 10, 2012
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Tuesday, January 31, 201210,000 days since Carlton becomes Phillies win leaderby Chris Jaffe10,000 days ago (a “day-versary” as I call it), Steve Carlton made a bit of history for himself. On Sept. 14, 1984, he pitched 6.2 IP to earn a victory over the Expos. In was his 312th career victory, and more important for today’s item, it was win No. 235 with the Philadelphia Phillies. That win made him the all-time franchise leader with one more than fellow Hall of Famer Robin Roberts. Among other things, it’s the last time any of the pre-expansion franchise teams gained a new all-time franchise win leader. Of the elder 16 teams, two have an all-time winner whose career took place entirely in the deadball era: The Giants and A's with Christy Mathewson and Eddie Plank. The all-time winner for four more began in the deadball period: Detroit, Washington/Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati had Hooks Dauss, Walter Johnson, Wilbur Cooper, and Eppa Rixey respectively. Both Chicago all-time winners pitched in the years between the world wars: Charlie Root with the Cubs, and Ted Lyons on the South Side. Cleveland’s Bob Feller also began before WWII. Among the pitchers shortly after WWII, only two are all-time franchise champions: The Braves’ Warren Spahn, and Whitey Ford. Since Whitey Ford began all-time franchise win leader in the late 1960s, only four pre-expansion franchises have changed their all-time win leader. The Orioles actually did it twice. In 1971, Dave McNally passed up previous leader Urban Shocker. Six years later, Jim Palmer surpassed McNally on his way to 268 Baltimore wins. In 1972, Bob Gibson became the all-time Cardinals leader. In 1979, Don Sutton became the all-time Dodgers leader. So it happened four times to three pre-expansion franchises in the 1970s, but since then it has only happened once, with Steve Carlton and the Phillies. Obviously, there’s one clear explanation for this: Free agency. Keeping a terrific pitcher for a prolonged period of time has gotten much harder. In fact, there have been only three pitchers who debuted in the free agency era who have won 200 games for one franchise. Andy Pettitte won 203 with the Yankees and longtime teammates Tom Glavine and John Smoltz accrued 244 and 210 wins each with the Braves. (It should be noted that Glavine won enough games to be franchise leader for most pre-expansion teams, but not the one he happened to play for.) Getting back to Steve Carlton, his franchise-record setting win was near the end of the line for him. He’d pitch another year and a half with the Phillies, posting a record of 6-16 in the process. Still, his 241 wins as a Phillie is not only their record, but it’s also tied for 14th most any pitcher has ever had with a franchise. Here’s the all-time leaderboard Wins Pitcher 417 Walter Johnson 372 Christy Mathewson 356 Warren Spahn 329 Kid Nichols 284 Eddie Plank 268 Phil Niekro 268 Jim Palmer 266 Bob Feller 260 Ted Lyons 254 Red Faber 253 Carl Hubbell 251 Bob Gibson 244 Tom Glavine 241 Steve Carlton 241 Cy Young Cy Young’s 241 wins came with the Cleveland Spiders, a team that no longer exists. But it’s not bad for Carlton to be tied with him. Aside from that, many other events celebrate their anniversary or “day-versary” today. Here they are, with the better ones in bold for those who prefer to skim the list: Click for more... Monday, January 30, 2012Juan Pierre, Domonic Brown, and plansby Brad JohnsonLast week, the Phillies signed Juan Pierre to a minor-league contract. Pierre’s most likely role with the club is as the fifth or sixth outfielder. His primary duty might be to pinch run when Jim Thome reaches base in the late innings. Once Ryan Howard returns from his Achilles injury—projected sometime in May—Pierre may be designated for assignment. What makes this minor move interesting is what it tells us about the Phillies’ plan for Domonic Brown. National media coverage seems to view the Pierre addition as the Phillies placing “another obstacle” in the way of Brown. This is a misunderstanding of the situation in Philadelphia. Brown appears to be behind John Mayberry Jr. , Laynce Nix, Ty Wigginton, and Pierre on the club’s left field depth chart. With the possible exception of Mayberry, these names all share one commonality—they will NEVER block a prospect. So no, Pierre does not add another obstacle for Brown to overcome. The obstacles in Brown’s path are solely personal. First and foremost, he must greatly improve his outfield defense, a task that is accomplishable but requires a lot of repetition. All aspects of his defensive presence appear to need work. His route running in Philadelphia was comical. He has a strong arm but occasionally became overzealous with his throws. He also made throws to the wrong location, demonstrating a need to improve his game awareness of base/out states. wRC+ found Brown’s offensive contributions in 2011 to be one percent above league average, and a .276 BABIP certainly did not help. However, scouts, spectators, and talking heads unanimously agree that Brown has plenty of room to work on his plate approach. Another spin with Triple-A Lehigh Valley is not likely to harm his offensive progress and will almost certainly help. And that brings us back to Pierre’s purpose. Rather than an obstacle, Pierre provides additional depth to ensure that the Phillies do not need to thrust Brown into major league duty until he is completely ready. Philadelphia has yo-yoed Brown around the past two years, and it is clear the Phillies have recognized the potentially damaging impact this could have on their prospect and have taken steps to rectify the situation. When Brown is ready—that is, when his defensive presence catches up with his tools and his bat is prepared to shoulder the burden of a left-fielder—he will walk onto the roster virtually unopposed. Friday, January 27, 2012Outfield assist of another kindby Bojan KoprivicaIn a sense, there has been an air of spring training atmosphere around September baseball in Oakland for a while now. Only without the hope part. The weather is great. The games don’t really decide anything. And not too many watch them to start with. So, when Jeff Francoeur and his 59-83 Royals rolled into town to take on the 64-77 Athletics last September, the world wasn't exactly holding its collective breath. But what the world was thinking didn't matter one iota to the Oakland crowd, if you’ll excuse the loose use of the word. And why should it? In a sense, a September game that decides nothing is what baseball is all about. It's about watching a game with your friends, enjoying a slow-paced timeout from the pressures of the everyday life. It's about hearing the crack of the bat, watching them run, slide and dive, knowing both your players and the opponent's ones. It's about jumping up and cheering during a rally, sharing a hope for a win, even if it's only a 60th or 65th, with not too many more to come. It is also about a certain sense of intimacy: being close to the other fans, but also to the players, like in no other major sport. Where else can you have a nice chat with a relief pitcher during a game or heckle an outfielder for hours? Oakland’s "bleacher bums" can shout with the best of them. And they can drum. And they wave the flags, win or lose, against the Yankees and against the Royals alike. Say what you want about the overall attendance numbers, but the core is there, all the time, like a family. Or FANily, as they call themselves. Jeff Francoeur heard them shout, just as he did in the previous visits. But unlike most players, he didn’t pretend not to hear the good-natured ribbing. Rather, he waved back and even engaged in an occasional exchange with the fans. The message they had for him was simple - it was a Bacon Tuesday in the right field bleachers in Oakland. Because, you know, everything is better with bacon. They cooked and baked, from regular bacon to home-made chicharron with fresh cheese. All the way up to the chocolate-covered bacon. Seriously. They ate and they drummed, they shouted and had fun, they cheered and they ate some more. And when the game was over, there was a spare plate left for Jeff Francoeur. Just like that. Because Frenchy is a nice guy, they said. Francoeur seemed touched. He signed baseballs and ticket stubs, chatted with them, took the bacon, said thank you and left. But not before he made sure the same fans would be coming to the Wednesday game, too. The next day, he walked out to his position before the game, carrying a signed baseball in his hand. He spotted the familiar faces, smiled and threw the baseball over the fence. There was a hundred dollar bill rubber-tied to the baseball. And an inscription: "Beer or Bacon Dog on me. Jeff Francoeur." And then he strolled back to right field, fielded a sharp grounder by Michael Taylor and threw him out at first base.  Photo: Anson Casanares 30th anniversary: The Ryne Sandberg tradeby Chris JaffeThirty years ago today, one of the more one-sided trades of the 1980s occurred. It was one of the worst trades the Phillies ever made, and one of the best trades the Cubs ever made. At the time, the three-player transaction didn’t look like a big deal. If it was at all interesting to people, it’s because it was a challenge trades, in which the clubs swapped their veteran starting shortstops, with Chicago’s Ivan DeJesus going to the Phillies and longtime Philadelphia fixture Larry Bowa going to the Cubs. Based purely on name value, the Cubs were coming out ahead. Bowa was a five-time All-Star who had won a pair of Gold Gloves. DeJesus? Well, he’d started for each of the last five seasons and once led the league in runs (in 1978, with just 104), but that’s about it. In fact, in terms of recent performance, the gap favored Bowa by an even greater degree. In the strike-shortened 1981 season, he batted .283. Admittedly, it was with just 17 extra base hits (none of which were homers), and 26 walks. But back in those days a lot of shortstops had little to offer behind batting average. And having batting average put Bowa well ahead of DeJesus. In 1981, while playing every day, DeJesus hit a puny .194. Oh, and he had even less power than Bowa—eight doubles, four triples and zero home runs. To be fair, in 1980 they were more evenly matched at the plate. Batting average, the favored stat of the day, preferred Bowa, but DeJesus won in OPS+. In 1979, DeJesus had a far superior year at the plate, out-hitting Bowa by 42 points. And one more thing: DeJesus was several years younger than Bowa. To be precise, he was seven years and one month younger. Thus even though Bowa had the reputation and the name value and the Gold Gloves, in order to pull off the shortstop swap the Phillies had to throw in a second player. And that’s where the deal became a disaster for Philadelphia. On the face of it, the Phils sent the player they could most afford to lose. They sent Chicago a young prospect who played third base. Folks, it’s January 1982 and the Phillies are pretty well settled at third base, thank you very much. They had a guy named Mike Schmidt and he’d just won his second consecutive NL MVP Award. So the Phillies decided that if all they needed to do to get younger at shortstop was get rid of the prospect they’d never need, why not. And thus a young Ryne Sandberg joined Larry Bowa in the trade to the Cubs for Ivan DeJesus. When you describe it like that, it all makes sense. Yup, in fact many trades that work out horribly actually have a logic behind them—the results just don’t mesh with the logic. What happened was simple. Sandberg had a nice rookie season at third base in 1982, and then the Cubs decided to move him to second for 1983. He blossomed. He won a Gold Glove in his first year at second, and the next year claimed an MVP. He became a perennial All-Star from that point onward. In terms of shortstops, the trade also didn’t go the way Philadelphia wanted it to, though it wasn’t a disaster. Despite his age, Bowa actually lasted a little longer with his new team—three and a half years with Chicago while DeJesus lasted three seasons in Philadelphia. Then again, while Bowa lasted longer, he wasn’t very good. WAR considers him barely above replacement level and his batting average cracked .250 only once in Chicago; rather bad for a guy whose game was based on getting hits. But DeJesus was also a disappointment. He was never as bad as his 1981 season, but he was never as good as his 1978-79 performance. Yeah, DeJesus was a little better than Bowa, so the format for the challenge trade makes sense. To even out the trade the Phillies should’ve sent a fungible player to the Cubs alongside Bowa. But it turns out that the guy they sent over was light years above fungible. Aside from that, today many other events celebrate their anniversary or “day-versary” (which is an event occurring X-thousand days ago). Here they are. I’ll put the better ones in bold if you’d prefer to skim. Click for more... Wednesday, January 25, 2012It’s THT Dispatchby Dave StudemanWe've got a new feature here at the Hardball Times. It's called THT Dispatch, and it's a newly featured blog on the site (you can view a link for it in the links at the top of the page—between THT Live and THT Forecasts). The idea behind THT Dispatch is that our writers will regularly post something—such as a pitching profile, trade commentary or pitch breakout—based on our own interpretation of the the latest pitch tracking technology. PITCHf/x data is terrific, but it's not perfect. There can be differences between parks, subpar pitch identification and other issues. Over the years, THT writers have worked hard to improve the data. In particular, Harry Pavlidis has delved into the nooks and crannies of the data on a regular basis. We think our current version provides a solid framework for commentary and analysis, and THT Dispatch is where you'll find it. We've incorporated THT Dispatch into our RSS feeds and you'll find a link to the most recent post on our home page each day. Check it out when you get a chance. THT Forecasts - 2012 Oliver projected-WAR starting lineupby Greg TamerUsing the 2012 Oliver database, here is the top-projected-WAR starting lineup:
Pos Player 2012 Projected WAR
P Yu Darvish 7.0 (Wow!)
C Joe Mauer 3.5
1B Albert Pujols 5.5
2B Robinson Cano 4.5
3B Evan Longoria 4.6
SS Troy Tulowitzki 5.6
LF Ryan Braun* 4.6
CF Matt Kemp 4.9
RFl Jose Bautista 3.9
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44.1
* - If Braun indeed suspended for 50 games, will then substitute in Matt Holiday, 4.2 projected WAR. Think you could construct a lineup with other players that will out-WAR the above lineup in 2012? Perhaps worth an investigation after the season! THT Forecasts is available for the 2012 season, with Brian Cartwright's Oliver database providing over 9000 projections for major and minor leaguers. Visit Forecasts today to learn more and sign up for only $14.95! 40th anniversary: Dave Winfield and the NCAA basket-brawlby Chris JaffeForty years ago today, one of the ugliest moments in the history of college basketball occurred. It’s an event that has largely been forgotten and probably would be completely forgotten if it wasn’t for the odd fact that one of the people involved in the ugliness later went on to become a Hall of Fame baseball player—Dave Winfield. On Jan. 25, 1971, the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers hosted the Ohio State Buckeyes in what appeared to be a fairly mundane game. With 36 seconds to go and Minnesota trailing by six, the Buckeye's Luke Witte was fouled hard and knocked down to the ground. What happened next didn’t last especially long but was violent enough to put three Ohio State players in the hospital. Making this even more shocking, the violence just seemed to come from nowhere. With Witte trying to get up from his foul, Minnesota player Corky Taylor walked up an extended his hand to Witte, as if trying to help him up. Instead, he got Witte up just to knee him in the groin hard and then punch him in the head. Witte was knocked back down but good. Then all hell broke loose. Players started scrambling after each other all over the court. With Witte lying immobilized on the ground, Minnesota’s Ron Behagen came up to him and stomped him into unconsciousness. Witte’s teammate Dave Merchant tried to help but was hit in the back by Golden Gopher Jim Brewer. As for Winfield, just 20 years old at the time, he attacked Ohio State player Mark Wagar from behind, landing several punches to his head. It was all over in about a minute, but the officials declared the game over, the last 36 seconds be damned. Witte would spend several days in the hospital, including one day in intensive care. His cornea was scarred, permanently affecting his career. He also had 29 stitches in his face. There was no clear provocation for what happened. Witte had elbowed Minnesota’s Bobby Nix on the way to the locker rooms at halftime, but what happened was well out of line by any standards. Some blamed Minnesota coach Bill Musselman for trying to work his players into an extreme emotional state for their games. The Big Ten suspended Taylor and Behagen, but no action was taken against the University of Minnesota basketball program itself. Witte went on to a brief NBA career. Minnesota’s Brewer had a more successful NBA career, lasting nearly a decade. Less successfully, head-stomper Behagen just three weeks ago was sentenced to three years probation for stealing money from an elderly woman suffering from Alzheimer’s disease. But Winfield is the biggest name to come out of it. His future lay in baseball, obviously, and he was never known for getting in any fights there (unless you count the time his throw to the infield flukishly kill a bird in midair). But he was part of this ugly NCAA brawl - now on Youtube - that happened 40 years ago today. Aside from that, many other events celebrate an anniversary or “day-versary” (which is something that occurred X-thousand days ago) today. Here they are, with the better ones in bold if you’d prefer to skim. Click for more... Tuesday, January 24, 2012Fast goes Astroby Dave StudemanThe Internet is abuzz with the news that baseball analyst extraordinaire Mike Fast has been hired by the Astros. Mike will report to Sig Mejdal, who was made famous by Sam Walker's book Fantasyland. They promise to be powerful contributors to the Astros' braintrust. The press release states that Mike is a Baseball Prospectus writer, which is true. But Mike also wrote for the Hardball Times for three years before moving over to BPro. You can read the archives of his articles starting here. Mike also wrote for several editions of the Hardball Times Annual. Mike's analysis was always interesting, clear and thoughtful. These are attributes that will serve him well in Houston. With this move, the circle is complete, sort of. Fantasyland also gave my first baseball site some notoriety, when Walker wrote that it was one of the favorite sites of Brian Cashman. That notoriety was one of the reasons I was asked to help found the Hardball Times, where Mike honed his craft. Mike joins other THT alumni, such as Josh Kalk, Dan Fox and Carlos Gomez, who have gone on to join major league teams. That's a record we're proud of, and we plan to continue to offer you the finest in baseball writing. In the meantime, congrats to Mike and the Astros on the beginnings of a beautiful relationship. A baseball card mystery: Bob Didier and Cleon Jonesby Bruce MarkusenIt is very appropriate that Bob Didier’s 1973 Topps shows him in a defensive position. The switch-hitting Didier didn’t hit much--in fact, he never hit a home run in his six-year big league career--but he was an excellent fielder and a strong thrower. In 1969, he finished fourth in the National League Rookie of the Year race, as he helped the Braves to the first ever National League West title.  Didier might have had a career along the lines of defender extraordinaire Jim Sundberg, but injuries derailed him. Back problems, In particular prevented Didier from becoming an everyday player. After his rookie season of 1969, he never played in more than 57 games in a season, and by 1974, his major league career was over. Of the few Topps cards that portrayed Didier, his 1973 Topps is by far the most interesting. This rough-and-tumble action shot shows him trying to apply a tag to Mets outfielder Cleon Jones (wearing No. 21), who is sliding hard into home plate as one of the Mets’ catchers (either Jerry Grote or Duffy Dyer) looks on from the background. Didier seems confident that he has tagged Jones out in time, but is still awaiting the call from the home plate umpire. So is Jones, the Mets' fleet footed starting left fielder, out or safe? The Didier card raises another interesting question. Normally, Topps cards portray scenes from the previous season, so we would assume that this picture was snapped in 1972. But there’s a problem. Didier is not wearing the Braves’ blue-and-white road uniform that was adopted in 1972. Instead, he is wearing the road gray, which was last used by the Braves in 1971. A check of Didier’s 1972 playing log confirms our suspicions. Didier played in only 13 games in ‘72, and none against the Mets. So it is likely that the Didier/Jones play took place sometime in 1971. So we know it’s Shea Stadium, likely in 1971. What was the date, and was Jones safe or out? 20,000 days since the Phillies integrateby Chris Jaffe20,000 days ago, the Phillies belatedly got with the program. On April 22, 1957, in the eighth inning of an otherwise entirely forgettable loss to the Dodgers, Philadelphia inserted a young player name John Kennedy into the game as a pinch runner. Kennedy’s noteworthiness has little to do with the fact he shares a name with the then-US Senator from Massachusetts. No, this Kennedy has something much more notable to contribute to baseball history. You see, in a very real sense Kennedy’s entrance marked a new chapter in the history of the Philadelphia Phillies. In one key way he was unlike any previous player in the history of the Phillies. John Kennedy was black. By entering the game, he became the first black to ever play for the Phillies. Ten years after Jackie Robinson integrated all of baseball (and several months after he played his last game), the Phillies became the last NL team to integrate their roster. That didn’t mean all baseball had integrated. Over in the AL the Tigers and Red Sox still fielded all-white lineups, but the senior circuit’s integration was now complete. The NL had always been at the forefront of integration. The Dodgers, Giants, and Braves had been especially aggressive in integrating their teams, playing stars such as Robinson, Roy Campanella, Willie Mays, Monte Irvin, Hank Aaron, and others. Not so coincidentally, those teams won every NL pennant from 1951-59. The other teams, though, had also uncovered some amazing talents. By 1957, Ernie Banks was already the Cubs’ shortstop, Frank Robinson was an instant sensation in Cincinnati, and the Pirates had a young outfielder bursting with talent named Roberto Clemente. St. Louis hadn’t found a big star black player yet, but by the end of the decade they’d begin playing Curt Flood, Bill White, and Bob Gibson. The Phillies were the slowest of the NL teams to move forward. Yes they did integrate with Kennedy, but he only played five games with the club. Twice he was a late game infield defensive replacement, and the other trio of appearances came as a pinch runner. Philadelphia wouldn’t land their first real star African-American until Dick Allen arrived in 1964. I have no idea why the Phillies were so comparatively slow to integrate. Racism is one obvious answer, but it could just have been managerial incompetence. They are, after all, historically the worst franchise in history. When Jackie Robinson integrated baseball the Phillies were finishing a stretch of 31 seasons in which they had 30 losing records (and went 78-76 in the other year). They were actually good in the late 1940s and early 1950, and that could’ve deceived them into thinking they didn’t need to recruit blacks. They won the pennant in 1950 with an all-white roster – maybe they thought they (finally) had figured out how to put a team together. Regardless, the last NL team did integrate – exactly 20,000 days ago today. Aside from that, many other baseball events celebrate their “day-versary” or anniversary today. 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