Saturday, February 09, 2008
Sloan Sports Conference wrap-up
Posted by Sal BaxamusaI'll do a full wrap later, but here is the liveblog archive of the event:
Rob Neyer just walked by
When do you tear down a stadium?
Projections and steroids
Title defense
Nobody gives a...
Who would you start a league with?
Intangibles
Sal Baxamusa is a graduate student in chemical engineering. He can be reached here.
Intangibles
Posted by Sal BaxamusaRick Carlisle, former NBA player and coach, is telling Bill James that there are some things that you just can't measure. You can't measure a player's heart, he says. We hear that all the time. In the previous panel, however, somebody asked Bill what teams should be measuring and quantifying that they aren't now. He said that a record of a player's makeup or character would be immensely valuable. So who's right, Rick Carlisle or Bill James?
Sal Baxamusa is a graduate student in chemical engineering. He can be reached here.
Who would you start a team with?
Posted by Sal BaxamusaWe hear this question all the time. But at the Baseball Analytics panel of the Sloan Sports Conference, this question was posed to some serious baseball insiders: author Vince Genarro, Diamondbacks, Diamond Mind creator Tom Tippett, scout Joe Bohringer, and sabermetric legend Bill James. Who did they pick, considering age and contract status?
Vince and Tippett spoke generally, saying they wanted a player with all six years of service time remaining. Vince said that two years ago he would have chosen Hanley Ramirez or Justin Verlander. Tom didn't name names, but he didn't want a pitcher. He preferred a position player who wasn't a defensive liability.
Bill chose David Wright.
Joe had the hometeam pick: Justin Upton. He said that he has as much talent of any player he has scouted, including Hall of Famers.
Sal Baxamusa is a graduate student in chemical engineering. He can be reached here.
Nobody gives a…
Posted by Sal BaxamusaPeter Gammons just related a fun story. Apparently, Bill Parcells and Mark Shapiro met at Scott Pioli's wedding (who was marrying Parcells's daughter). At the time, Shapiro was farm director for the Indians. Parcells asked him how things were going. Shapiro started talking about about his players and their injuries when Parcells interrupted him and said, "Nobody gives a ####."
Then, in the receiving line, Parcells saw Shapiro again and said, "Just remember nobody gives a ####." Later, in a bathroom, Parcells ran into Shapiro again and said, "Just remember one thing and you'll be successful: nobody gives a ####."
After rebuilding the Indians and guiding them to the brink of the AL pennant, I'd say that Shapiro has given very few shits!
Sal Baxamusa is a graduate student in chemical engineering. He can be reached here.
Title Defense
Posted by Sal BaxamusaWell, I guess I was right about Bill James. After munching on sandwiches with Keith Woolner - a perfectly delightful human being - and a short chat with Rob Neyer, I filed into the auditorium for the Title Defense panel when who else but Bill James should walk by. He's going to be on panelist this afternoon on baseball analytics, so I'll be sure to check in with anything interesting from that.
Now, Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey and New England Patriots Director of New Business Development are introducing a panel title "Defending the Title." Who's moderating?
None other than the legend himself Peter Gammons.
A lot of the talk is about the importance of character in putting together a winning team. Jed Hoyer, the Red Sox assistant general manager, says that the Red Sox have had trouble recruiting free agents because how difficult it is to play in Boston - I assume he's talking about the pressure-cooker media. For that reason, the organization has focused heavily on character when drafting players. He says that the leaders of the team are not the veteran players, but guys like Dustin Pedroia and Jonathan Papelbon.
He also intimates that part of the reason they didn't repeat as champions in 2005 was that starter-quality guys who accepted bench roles in 2004 for the stretch run wouldn't do so in 2005. I'm guessing he's talking about Dave Roberts.
More later...
Sal Baxamusa is a graduate student in chemical engineering. He can be reached here.
Player projections and steroids
Posted by Sal BaxamusaStill at the Sloan Sports Conference, I'm watching a panel on gaming. Andy Andres, Mark Kortekaas of of CBS Sports, and Jeff Ma of PROTRADE are mostly talking about fantasy sports. Andy, who does data analysis at BaseballHQ, was asked about how steroid affect projections. What did he say?
"You just never know." Andy thinks that looking at before/after steroid trends, singling out players, etc. is a tough thing to do. He's of the opinion that forecasting is inherently complicated, and that incorporating steroids is not necessarily going to make projections more accurate. "It's confusing," he said. "I'll stop there." But does it even matter?
Keith Woolner, now working with the Cleveland Indians, is saying that he's trying to incorporate scouting data into the his player forecasting model. But that's for real baseball, not fantasy baseball. Jeff Ma thinks that incrementally improving forecasting is not going to be a money-making engine for the fantasy gaming industry. He thinks that subscriptions and advertising on the way to go. So maybe we in the analytical community shouldn't be trying to build a better mousetrap - just a shinier one.
Sal Baxamusa is a graduate student in chemical engineering. He can be reached here.
When do you tear down a stadium?
Posted by Sal BaxamusaI'm still here at the Sloan Sports Conference, and I'm watching a panel discuss venue and stadium management. All the panelists have been involved with the financing and construction of various sports stadia and arenas. One issue that was discussed was when a stadium needed to be replaced. The answer, of course, was that you need a new stadium when the old one becomes obsolete.
What is obsolete?
To the panelists, structural obsolescence is not the issue - it's financial. That is, the venue needs to be able to take advantage of the latest in revenue generation, such as electronic signage and premium seating. Tim Romani of the Romani group said that once a stadium gets too old to build in the latest in revenue generation, it needs to be torn down and replaced. I'll do a full wrapup of the panel and conference later, including the panelists' discussion of whether public funds should used to build venues, but I'll post tidbits in this space throughout the day.
Also, I smell the pleasant scent of VORP wafting throught the room...hey, there's Keith Woolner! First Rob, now Keith. Who's next, Bill James?
Sal Baxamusa is a graduate student in chemical engineering. He can be reached here.
Rob Neyer just walked by
Posted by Sal BaxamusaI'm here at the Sloan Sports Conference, and the keynote speech (Wyc Grousbeck, CEO of the Celtics) is about to begin. I'm sitting next to David Pinto of Baseball Musings (he's liveblogging the event). I was at this conference last year, and it was a blast. This year is no different. Last night, I spent a few hours chatting baseball with Joe Bohringer and Helen Zelman of the Arizona Diamondbacks, author of Diamond Dollars Vince Gennaro, Andy Andres of BaseballHQ, Diamond Mind creator and current Red Sox consultant Tom Tippett, and David Pinto. I tried my best to shut up and learn from those smarter than me.
I'll update this space if there any interesting tidbits
And hey, Rob Neyer just walked by, but no, he wasn't wearing flannel.
Sal Baxamusa is a graduate student in chemical engineering. He can be reached here.