Friday, November 19, 2010
2010 DIRVA_PLUS pitching runs
Posted by Peter JensenLast year I introduced DIRVA_PLUS, a pitching metric specifically designed to look at the actual past performance of pitchers. Unlike pitching metrics that are designed to measure a pitcher’s true talent to be used in projecting future performance, DIRVA_PLUS includes the effects of sequencing of events. It also makes an adjustment to adjust for the quality of the defense that supports a pitcher so that DIRVA_PLUS can better represent only the pitcher’s performance.
Here are the National League Leaders for 2010:
FIRST LAST IP DIRVA_RUNS HIT_BALL_RUNS DIRVA_PLUS_RUNS Ubaldo Jimenez 215.3 -24.3 -20.7 -45.0 Josh Johnson 183.7 -37.1 -7.8 -44.9 Tim Hudson 228.7 -5.8 -37.4 -43.2 Adam Wainwright 230.3 -34.1 -8.6 -42.7 Roy Halladay 250.0 -30.5 -11.3 -41.8 Roy Oswalt 211.7 -20.2 -18.2 -38.4 Clayton Kershaw 204.7 -24.0 -10.0 -34.0 Brett Myers 223.7 -17.4 -15.1 -32.5 Clay Hensley 75.0 -15.1 -12.3 -27.4 Hong-Chih Kuo 59.7 -14.6 -11.2 -25.8 Dan Hudson 79.7 -7.8 -17.5 -25.3 Evan Meek 80.0 -8.2 -15.2 -23.4 Billy Wagner 69.3 -19.2 -3.0 -22.2 Mat Latos 184.7 -23.0 1.0 -22.0 Jaime Garcia 163.3 -17.6 -4.3 -21.9
Runs are runs saved for the team compared to a league-average pitcher, so negative is better. DIRVA_RUNS are the total run value added by strikeout, non-intentional walk, home run, balk, pickoff, hit by pitch, and wild pitch events only. It measures similar events to FIP. HIT_BALL_RUNS are the run value added by batted ball outs, singles, doubles and triples minus the average value that the team’s defense allows for those events. DIRVA_PLUS_RUNS is simply DIRVA_RUNS added to HIT_BALL_RUNS.
Here are the American League Leaders:
FIRST LAST IP DIRVA_RUNS HIT_BALL_RUNS DIRVA_PLUS_RUNS Felix Hernandez 249.7 -24.4 -17.9 -42.3 Clay Buchholz 173.7 -9.6 -25.9 -35.5 Jered Weaver 224.0 -25.2 -10.0 -35.2 Justin Verlander 224.3 -27.4 -2.4 -29.8 Joakim Soria 65.7 -13.8 -11.7 -25.5 Jon Lester 208.0 -16.7 -6.8 -23.5 David Price 208.7 -16.8 -5.3 -22.1 Brian Duensing 130.7 0.3 -22.3 -22.0 Joaquin Benoit 60.0 -10.5 -10.1 -20.6 John Danks 213.3 -7.1 -13.5 -20.6 C.J. Wilson 204.3 -12.7 -6.7 -19.4 Matt Thornton 60.7 -12.4 -5.3 -17.7 CC Sabathia 237.7 -14.9 -2.7 -17.6 Ricky Romero 205.0 -6.8 -8.7 -15.5The full lists for 2010 are available in this spreadsheet (click to download). All stats are from MLBAM Gameday.
When he was ten, Peter caught a foul ball hit by Ted Williams at Griffiths Stadium. He keeps hoping, but so far life hasn't gotten any better than that.
Verlander would get more ink pitching for an east coast team.