Friday, November 19, 2010
Action index
Posted by Dave StudemanMax has a great article up today on using Win Probability Added and Leverage Index to determine a game's excitement. We took the "simple" approach in the Hardball Times Annual (have I mentioned that it's now shipping?) and ranked all games according to the swings in Win Expectancy from play to play.
In fact, THT Annual purchasers will be able to download a spreadsheet of all 2010 games and each one's "Action Index." Here is a list of the top ten most exciting games of 2010 (a typical game has an Action Index of 1.0).
GameDate At… Inn Winner Loser WPA Action Index 2010-06-24 COL 10 BOS 13 COL 11 6.5896 2.28 2010-07-23 FLA 9 FLA 7 ATL 6 5.7923 2.22 2010-06-19 FLA 11 TB 9 FLA 8 7.0716 2.22 2010-06-10 CLE 9 CLE 8 BOS 7 5.7104 2.19 2010-09-11 TEX 9 TEX 7 NYA 6 5.6648 2.18 2010-05-11 TEX 13 OAK 7 TEX 6 8.1252 2.16 2010-06-01 HOU 9 HOU 8 WAS 7 5.5713 2.14 2010-06-08 PHI 9 PHI 10 FLA 8 5.5274 2.12 2010-08-16 BAL 11 BAL 5 SEA 4 6.6580 2.09 2010-10-02 BOS 10 BOS 7 NYA 6 6.0113 2.08The least exciting game was the Angels' 8-0 pasting of Seattle on May 7, with an Action Index of 0.26.
Dave was called a "national treasure" by Rob Neyer. Seriously. Comments about this article can be sent to him through the miracle of e-mail.
That Rockies / Redsox game was nearly 5 hours long, with Pedroia hitting 3 homers. Action packed yes, but I saw more exciting games this year.