Monday, May 10, 2004

Base Runs Pythagorean Winning Percentage

Runs scored compared to runs allowed is a good predictor of a team's win-loss record. The theory goes that teams can have a run of good or bad luck in close games, and that means that their runs scored and allowed totals are a better reflection of their ability. If that's true, then it would figure that using sophisticated run estimation formulas instead of actual runs scored and allowed should be even better - since teams can have good and bad luck bunching their hits and walks together.

Team hitting and pitching stats are provided to us daily by Baseball Info Solutions and allow us to calculate Base Runs - my favorite run estimator. There are several versions of the formula floating around the net, including one I developed last year. Using that formula, here are the Base Runs Pythagorean WPCT for each team: