Posted by David Gassko
Each of the past few years, I've published career projections for all players aged 21-41 based on a system I developed a few years ago. See last year's article for reference. This year, I'm too busy to write an article, but I've run the numbers so I figured I would throw them up here for download. Note that for hitters I project their career hits and home runs as well as their chances of reaching certain milestones in those categories, while for pitchers I project career wins and their chances of winning 300 games.
The spreadsheet with results for every player (again, aged 21-41 in 2011) who played last season can be downloaded here.
David Gassko is a former consultant to a major league team. He welcomes comments via e-mail.
Comments
jim said...
Wow, Stanton has a better chance at breaking Bonds’ record than Pujols? I wonder what kind of odds you could get on this in Vegas.
Posted 03/30 at 11:37 AM
GBH said...
These percentages say there’s a 2/3 probability that an active player will break 763. I’ll take that bet. The 763 percentages are too high across the board. They likely do not account for a changed offensive environment.
Posted 03/30 at 12:53 PM
David Gassko said...
GBH,
Those projections are simply based on numbers from the past few years for each player, so I don’t think offensive environment plays too big of a role. Uncertainty dictates that a lot of things could happen. A-Rod still has a good shot, Pujols could eventually make a run, and if he stays healthy, Stanton looks like he’ll be a home run hitting monster.
Wow, Stanton has a better chance at breaking Bonds’ record than Pujols? I wonder what kind of odds you could get on this in Vegas.