Monday, June 01, 2009
College World Series odds through day 3Posted by Jeff Sackmann
And then there were 22. Ten of the 16 Super Regional qualifiers are set. Those teams get several days off before playing a three-game series next weekend. Twelve more teams get to fight it out this evening. Those six winner-take-all games will fill out the remainder of the Super Regional field.
Despite a tough draw, Virginia escaped unscathed from the Irvine regional, defeating the host Anteaters twice in as many days. My other favorite underdog, Kansas State, was unable to stop Rice yesterday, so they'll have a tough battle on their hands tonight to advance.
One note on the results. Eagle-eyed readers may have noticed that yesterday's odds report gave Arizona State a slight edge over Virginia to win it all, despite the fact that Virginia was originally favored, and both teams did nothing but win. The adjustment was due to Arizona State's likely Super Regional opponent. Since Oklahoma State (the underdog) beat Clemson (the favorite) in Saturday's winner's bracket game, Arizona State had a good chance of getting the Cowboys in the next round. While the Sun Devils are favored either way, Oklahoma State would've been a much more favorable matchup. Now that Clemson has come out of the loser's bracket and forced a decisive game (which, as you'll see, I give them a strong chance of winning), the bigger obstacle may be back in Arizona State's path.
Once again, Virginia is the slight favorite. And after they slipped through the Strasburg noose, then beat UC Irvine twice (by a three-game combined score of 14-2, no less), who's to doubt them?
Keep reading for the full report.
Team SuperReg Omaha FinalTwo Champ Texas 100.0% 60.4% 13.6% 6.0% Texas Christian 100.0% 39.6% 7.1% 2.7% Georgia Tech 66.1% 35.7% 7.3% 3.1% Southern Mississippi 33.9% 12.0% 1.1% 0.3% Florida 100.0% 52.4% 7.8% 2.8% Arizona State 100.0% 72.7% 32.7% 19.2% Clemson 64.6% 20.6% 6.1% 2.7% Oklahoma State 35.4% 6.7% 1.1% 0.3% East Carolina 62.2% 26.9% 6.1% 2.6% South Carolina 37.8% 11.9% 1.6% 0.5% North Carolina 100.0% 61.2% 15.6% 7.2% Cal State Fullerton 100.0% 73.6% 25.4% 14.6% Louisville 54.9% 15.5% 2.8% 1.1% Vanderbilt 45.1% 10.9% 1.6% 0.5% Florida State 100.0% 63.3% 9.0% 3.5% Arkansas 100.0% 36.7% 2.7% 0.8% Virginia 100.0% 75.4% 33.9% 21.3% Mississippi 54.3% 14.2% 2.8% 1.1% Western Kentucky 45.7% 10.4% 1.7% 0.6% Rice 56.1% 21.1% 3.3% 1.3% Kansas State 43.9% 15.3% 2.2% 0.8% Louisiana State 100.0% 63.5% 14.5% 7.0%
Jeff Sackmann is the creator of MinorLeagueSplits.com. With Kent Bonham, he founded CollegeSplits.com. Jeff and Kent blog about college baseball and the draft, and you can follow them on Twitter for bite-sized snacks of minor league and college stats. Jeff also has an email address.