November 8, 2009
Order Now The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 is now in development and will ship in mid November! This year's book will feature articles by THT's staff as well as Bill James, Rob Neyer, Tom Tango and Craig Wright. If you use this link to purchase the Annual, you will be in the first group to receive it and you'll be supporting THT. Most Recent Comments
In the backwater swirling (1)
Ranking Yankee World Champions (3) Twins strike for J.J. Hardy (1) Both sides come out ahead in Teahen swap (9) Rays get something for nothing in Iwamura trade (6) 
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Monday, December 17, 2007Consistency is inconsistentPosted by Sal BaxamusaI screwed up when I presented the Weibull plots and the consistency numbers last week! Based on reader feedback, I changed the model that I used to compute the Weibull parameters. You can read about the changes in this article. Those changes did impact (pretty signifcantly) the lists I presented previously, so I wanted to present the revised lists here. Scored 0-2 runs more frequently than expected LAN +9.6 SLN +5.9 NYA +4.5 ... ARI -5.7 PHI -9.6 MIL -11.7 Scored 8+ runs more frequently than expected SLN +6.2 SFN +5.8 KCA +5.5 ... CLE -5.5 CHA -5.7 BAL -6.7 Offenses, ranked by most consistent to least consistent MIL 15.6 BAL 9.4 PHI 8.0 FLO 7.4 CHN 7.0 SEA 5.5 CHA 4.0 CLE 3.8 OAK 3.7 TBA 2.9 SDN 2.0 CIN 1.4 MIN 0.8 ARI 0.7 PIT 0.6 MON -0.1 HOU -0.1 NYN -0.8 ANA -1.0 COL -1.6 DET -1.9 ATL -1.9 NYA -2.1 SFN -2.1 TOR -3.1 BOS -3.8 TEX -4.4 LAN -5.8 KCA -6.4 SLN -12.7 It also affects the conclusion that consistency is not correlated with overall offensive prowess. That is incorrect; it turns out that good offenses are less consistent, but this correlation is quite weak (r2=0.10, if you're a stat wonk). In other words, you shouldn't intentionally build a weak-hitting team in search of a more consistent offense - you're not guaranteed to get one and but you'll definitely end up scoring fewer runs! You can download all the revised plots and reports by clicking here. Sal Baxamusa is a graduate student in chemical engineering. He can be reached here. CommentsLeave a comment:Commenting is not available in this weblog entry. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||