Oh, I think they definitely need help in left field, but there is going to be a fair amount of outfielders available for that. It’s possible they could ink Jason Bay—but in any event, I don’t see a LF standing in their way.

The rotation is a big question mark, especially without Volquez, but they already have their top three starters. If they can squeeze out a trade or free agent for a productive #4 and then see an emergence of Homer Bailey or at least hold the #5 position steady with the rest of baseball, I can’t see how the Reds can’t make a mini-run.

As comprised, the Reds would not win the division. But there’s no way the Reds are done making moves.

Hypothetically, say the Reds do the following:

Sign Johnny Damon to be their LF, giving them Damon-Taveras (ew)-Bruce with Gomes in reserve.

Sign Orlando Cabrera or Marco Scutaro to be their starting SS (a very distinct possibility, but even an Adam Everett signing wouldn’t kill them).

(You’ll notice I’ve excluded Holliday, Bay, Ankiel, Abreu, Dye, Vlad and Miguel Tejada here even though they are also definites: I’m trying to make a point that even minimal cash outlays will have an impact.)

Sign Doug Davis and Brad Penny.

(Other options: Erik Bedard, Jon Garland, Rich Harden, Tim Hudson, John Lackey, Kevin Millwood, Vincente Padilla, Brett Myers, Carl Pavano, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf).

You telling me that that’s not a club that can contend?

Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we can see that they will drop about $10 million after the year. (This is with EdE, not Rolen, so it could be closer to dropping $12.)

To me, that’s enough to sign Scutaro (10M/2Y?).

Given Abreu got a $5 mil outlay from the Angels this past year, I feel comfortable projecting Damon at $5M.

So that takes care of their offense. I think ownership could be sold on outlaying another $8-10 million on one or two starting pitchers. If you deal Arroyo, then you definitely get two starting pitchers out of it.

I’m not saying it’s a certainty, but I do see the potential there, and it’s potential that wasn’t there without Rolen. Just my two cents.

I am hoping they can add Holiday or Bay next year. that would be a HUGE hole that would be filled and they could move Brandon to the #2 spot instead of him batting after Votto, Holiday(OR Bay) and Rolen would be way better protection. PLUS they need to get a decent pitcher to help the rotation like a Rich Harden, Brett Myers or a lefty like Randy Wolfe All this is a plus if they can move Arroyo or Harang.  I want the coaching staff to change too.. Pole isn’t that good as a pitching coach and Mario Soto or rick Peterson could help alot better. also a hitting coach like maybe Kevin Mitchell if he would take the job..
I also think Rolen was brought in as a starting piece of veteran leadership. Maybe the eyes for Walt to determine who to not bring back. AKA Gonzalez!! etc,,...

That is correct, I am taking out EdE. No reason to keep it in; the Reds aren’t paying it.

John Fay seems to think that the Reds are getting $4 million from the Blue Jays for next year, not $2. 

And I think Rolen simply wanted to get closer to home—he’s from Indiana.  The Reds were a good fit for his family late in his career.

Bob,

I was not trying to intimate that the Reds are paying Rolen less than EdE. However, it seems if what I was trying to say got lost in translation, both my original statement and the resulting comments.

I will try to simplify and clarify the situation:

The Reds looked at the acquisition of Rolen as a simple additional cost of $4.25 million, not $11 million or $9 million. (Or $2.25 million, if John Fay is correct.)

People are saying that paying Rolen $11 million to play for them next year is foolhardy. I’m saying that the Reds really only represent $4.25 more to them.

ummmm. . .

no one in the world thinks that having rolen at 3b is a bad thing.  He improves the team for next year, but in the reds case that may be the most meaningless piece of information ever. 

1. if the reds are better than they are slightly better and would still project to finish under .500.  So we just traded 2 good prospects and major league level hitter to go from 75 wins to 80 (if we are lucky)

2. We overpaid.  There is no way that the reds in the position that they are in, can afford to grossly overpay for assets.  Rolen, 34 year old rolen, almost 35 year old rolen is not worth a major league bat and 2 pitching prospects that are a virtual lock to be on the reds roster for many years to come. 

3. did i mention they overpaid.  I have no idea if the writer of this article pays any attention to who prospects are but ZACH STEWART will be a front of the rotation guy.  Zach Stewart himself was not worth Rolen in the state that the Reds are in.  6 yrs of a front end guy or a year and a half of a guy that may get you to 80 wins next year and maybe just maybe third place in one of the worst divisions in baseball. 

4. the reds have now committed 70,000,000 for next year without no starting shortstop, no fifth starter and only 1 person on the bench.  They have absolutely no flexibility next year at all.  not 1 dime.  oh wait u said the reds are getting relief.  that should put us at 68,000,000.  ............... much better.

There is not argument that holds any water for this to make sense for a team in this position with this payroll.  This was a stupid trade of epic proportions.

Ryan-

It has been confirmed that the Blue Jays are sending money to the Reds for Rolen’s 2010 contract.  The amount, however, is not certain.

This trade is terrible for the Reds without even considering the young pitchers they traded.

Evan, your math is wrong.  According to Cot’s, the Reds save money if they don’t pick up the options on Hernandez, Gonzalez and Weathers, but all but about $5M of that goes to increases to Harang, Phillips and Rolen - EdE.  The freed up money will be even further reduced after the inevitable increases to Votto and the other young players.  Therefore, if their payroll is going to be unchanged in 2010, they have about $5M to address two SP’s, a set-up RP to replace Weathers, a C, a SS and an OF plus bench depth.

Evan,

The Reds money the Reds are going to drop gets mostly eaten up by money they’ll spend on raises.

The only way they can sign FA’s is essentially by raising payroll.

I guess whether they do that or not is the “million dollar” question.

“but could have long-term success as a middle of the order hitter at first base or left field.”

Too bad they never tried him in LF despite having a glaring hole there.

“Reds gave up a sizeable chunk of assets that can help them down the road: Roenicke has a great chance to morph into a closer while Stewart would rank the Reds’ second best prospect if he was still with the club”

Forget about Edwin. Why would you give up your second best prospect for one year (this year is a waste) of Rolen?

“but to compete next year, Roenicke and Stewart weren’t going to help”

Roenicke would have helped THIS YEAR, why wouldn’t he help next year? Stewart is in AAA. Why wouldn’t he help next year? These aren’t A ball pitchers, “major league ready” and “cheap and young” - two pretty desirable commodities.

“the Reds just positioned themselves as a viable candidate to win the division next year” - Are they suddenly better than the Cubs, Brewers, Cards - with or without Holiday - or the Astros???

Also, Rolen’s BABIP with the Blue Jays was .341 according to B-Ref, where are you seeing .370?

If I drop the BABIP from .341 to .308 with Toronto, his AVG drops from .320 to .286.  That means his OBP would drop about .035 points too and his SLG slightly more than that (he’d lose a few doubles).  So instead of an .846 OPS, it “should” be .766. 

Now, we really don’t have the tools to claim the .308 is exactly what he deserved.  It might really be .340.  It might be somewhere in between.  Or it might be .270.

This was a bad move for the Reds on so many levels.  I don’t think anyone is saying that EE is better than Rolen…I don’t think that’s true.  Rolen is the better overall player.  However, even if EE is so bad at 3rd, why could he not be the starting LF for the Reds next season?  His bat still had lots of upside.

Also, the NL Central is not up for grabs next season.  Yes, the Cards may or may not lose Holliday.  However, they also lose Glaus, Greene, Wellmeyer, and Ankiel.  That’s a ton of money tied in to players who are having bad years, or haven’t played at all.  So the Cards will boslter their team one way or another.  Two, the Cubs are not losing anyone, except maybe Harden next year.  Why would the Reds think they are better than them?  The Cubs have had their injury woes as well this year, and are still far better than the Reds.  Plus, Milwaukee could add Gamel and Escobar to their major league lineup, giving them a much more potent team.  That’s 3 teams that will be better than the Reds next year, unless the Reds spend major money this offseason.

So, for those reasons, you don’t bring on extra money, and send 2 young arms away, to get a player who won’t be around when you compete again.

Saying that in 2010 Rolen will cost less than what Encarnacion will make is misleading. Even with the money Toronto are sending and Encarnacion’s raise, the Reds payroll will still be $4.25m higher because of this deal.

Someday when Zack Stewart is as remembered as CJ Nitkowski, I’m gonna come back here and laugh and laugh

Evan, are you factoring in the already-agreed-to raises for Arroyo, Harang, Phillips, Taveras, and Lincoln?

Dan,

Yes. Have a look see.

That’s true, I guess I’m just too optimistic that Castellini will untie Jocketty’s hands. I think that the Rolen move was a bit of an indicator of that.

Based on his .320 average, sure, I can do that. Based on his current .314 average, however, I think that statement holds.

Evan,

Maybe you should take another look at the spreadsheet.

Your spreadsheet has EdE in there instead of Rolen.

60.28-5.18+11=66.10

You have 8 players listed here who will play in the majors next year.  7 if you exclude Lincoln.  That leaves at least 17 roster spots to fill.  Assume each of these remaining 17 players make 0.4 million.  ,4 x 17 = 6.8.

66.1 + 6.8 =72.9 which is more than 1.4 million above last years payroll.  From what I have heard the Reds are cutting back on payroll.

Just a guess but I doubt Bay, Scutaro or anyone else you suggest will be willing to sign for $0.4 million this winter.