Thursday, October 15, 2009
Get rich quick?Posted by Colin Wyers
So on one hand we have Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds. According to them, the Phillies have a 67.6172% chance to win the NLCS; the Yankees have a 70.4483% chance to win the ALCS.
Compare that to the current odds coming out of Vegas. The Phillies have an implied odds of about 48% percent to win the NLCS, while the Yankees have an implied odds of about 64% to win the ALCS.
(Vegas odds are not entirely reflective of the actual odds, even under the best circumstances - they typically include a little extra to make sure Vegas makes money no matter who wins.)
So who's right? I'd put my money (so to speak) on Vegas. In order for BP to be right about the Phillies chances, for instance, you'd have to reasonably expect the Phillies to go .583 against the Dodgers. The Phillies only went .574 in the regular season, and they played a lot of games against a lot of teams who aren't as good as the Dodgers.
(More discussion about the issue here.)
UPDATE: BPro has fixed some bugs in their calculations. Somehow the Yankees odds have gotten better. But the Dodgers-Phillies odds look almost exactly like the Vegas odds now.
Colin Wyers knows exactly how much of a nerd he is. He is very interested in hearing about any other concerns you may have; you can reach him by e-mail, and he will try his best to respond in a timely fashion. He also blogs at Statistically Speaking.