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Saturday, November 21, 2009HR/FB Park FactorsPosted by Dan TurkenkopfJust a quick hit to share park factors for HR/FB rate. I used BIP data and the methodology from Baseball Reference to determine simple HR/FB park factors for 2009 and 4-year weighed factors (weights are 5,3,2,1). Update: My spreadsheet was thrown off by the Rays' name change. I've corrected the numbers below Without further adieu, here's the list: Team Park 2009 4 Year Angels Angel Stadium 110 96 Astros Minute Maid Park 104 108 Athletics McAfee Colisuem 95 92 Blue Jays Rogers Centre 105 108 Braves Turner Field 90 95 Brewers Miller Park 108 106 Cardinals Busch Stadium 86 84 Cubs Wrigley Field 97 103 DiamondbacksChase Field 99 106 Dodgers Dodger Stadium 89 95 Giants Pacific Bell Park 104 95 Indians Jacobs Field 75 88 Mariners Safeco Park 95 96 Marlins Dolphins Stadium 109 99 Mets Citi Field 98 98 Nationals Nationals Stadium 91 92 Orioles Oriole Park at Camden Yar 109 115 Padres PETCO Park 73 75 Phillies Citizens Bank Park 109 94 Pirates PNC Park 105 94 Rays Tropicana Field 110 111 Rangers The Ballpark at Arlington 98 97 Red Sox Fenway Park 98 90 Reds Great American Ballpark 121 114 Rockies Coors Field 103 112 Royals Kaufman Stadium 73 78 Tigers Comerica Park 94 101 Twins Metrodome 109 96 White Sox US Cellular Field 115 118 Yankees New Yankee Stadium 130 130 The Mets and the Yankees Park Factors are one season only The Nationals Park Factor is two seasons, weighted at 5 and 3 Dan Turkenkopf is a Yankees fan who spends way too much time poring over baseball statistics (at least according to his wife). He also writes for Beyond the Box Score and can be reached by email. Comments
Colin Wyers said...
What’s the data source on this? The number of fly balls can vary, depending on whether you’re asking BIS, STATS or Retrosheet. Posted 11/22 at 03:32 AM
archilochusColubris said...
Also, any comment on PETCO? Would have thought that one would be a bit lower… Posted 11/22 at 04:11 AM
Dan Turkenkopf said...
@Nick: I had twins back in August and decided to take a break from writing for a while. @Colin: The data is from BIS. I included fly balls and fliner flies. @archilochusColubris: Yeah, PETCO is substantially lower. The Rays changing their name knocked everything off. I’ve fixed the post. Sorry for the inconvenience. Posted 11/22 at 11:45 AM
Colin Wyers said...
Dan, what’s the fly ball per hit ball (AB-K+SF) rate per park? Let’s say for four years, no weighting, if you don’t mind. Are some parks “fly ball” parks? Posted 11/22 at 11:56 AM
Dan Turkenkopf said...
@Colin They’re all fairly close - in the low 30% range. Coors is the lowest at 30.04% and RFK was the highest at 34.87. These numbers are just raw rates, and not adjusted for pitching staff at all. I’ll take a look at real park factors later this week. Sorry for the formatting. parkname fb_rate Posted 11/22 at 10:01 PM
Colin Wyers said...
Interesting. If you’ll indulge me further - about how many BIP per park? Posted 11/23 at 03:59 AM
Dan Turkenkopf said...
For those in play the whole 4 seasons, between 17000 and 19000. Dolphins Stadium had the lowest BIP rate at 69%, while the Metrodome had the highest at 75.7%. BIP rate is hugely influenced by the players of course. Posted 11/23 at 07:46 AM
Greg Schaentzler said...
As a lifelong Yankee fan, the House That George Built is not what we’re accustomed to, the championships are…browsed around the Steiner sports website and bought myself some great original Yankee Stadium relics, straight from the cathedral…freeze dried grass and dirt from the final season, ahh memories Posted 11/23 at 12:52 PM
Colin Wyers said...
Okay, excluding the three parks that weren’t in service all four years, I get a standard deviation of .013 in FB rate. Given those numbers, we should expect to see an SD of .003 on the basis of random chance alone. You can’t directly subtract SDs, IIRC, so you have to do it with variances (square of the SD), so: (.013^2-.003^2)^.5 = .0126 is the “true” SD of observed FB% by park. That strikes me as being rather high - and makes me wonder about potential scorer bias with the BIS data. Posted 11/23 at 02:56 PM
jedlovec3 said...
Colin- see my comments on The Book Blog. In summary, BIS scorers are rotated through different games, teams, and parks throughout the season, AND there’s an almost-entirely different set of scorers each year. Considering all of that, I’m not sure how “scorer bias” sneaks in there. Is it possible- and Greg R has brought this up before- that weather patterns are influencing the data? Stiff winds that hold the ball up in the air longer? Posted 11/23 at 05:33 PM
Dan Turkenkopf said...
There’s probably some selection bias in these numbers too, because you’ll likely see more flyball pitchers in the parks that are more forgiving to flyballs. Or at least that’s the theory. I’d have to check how true it is. Posted 11/23 at 09:36 PM
Dan Turkenkopf said...
Ok, I now have Park Factors for Flyball Rate. I have no idea what they might mean, but here we go anyway. Team PF These are four year factors with no weighting based on BIS data including OF flies and OF fliner flies as fly balls. Posted 11/25 at 07:45 AM
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Where the heck have you been Dan?