Saturday, August 29, 2009
Is Scott Kazmir really done as an ace?
Posted by Evan BrunellToday, the trade sending Scott Kazmir to the Los Angeles Angels for two minor league players (LHP Alex Torres, 3B Matt Sweeney) and a player to be named later is official.
At 25 years old, is Kazmir really finished?
From 2005-8, when Kazmir anchored the Rays rotation, he racked up a 45-34 record with a 3.51 ERA in 689.2 innings with a K/BB ratio of 2.39, striking out 742.
Out of his 144 career starts, 36 -- or 25 percent of all his starts -- have come against the vaunted Red Sox and Yankees. What has he done in those starts? Try 208.1 innings, 3.20 ERA, 220 whiffs. This was all at the ages of 20-24. That's certifiably insane.
Kazmir spent some time on the disabled list early on in 2008 with a strained left elbow then assumed a big workload en route to the Rays' first postseason -- and World Series -- appearance. Kazmir got 2009 off to a fine start before tumbling fast and being placed on the 15-day disabled list with a right quad strain May 22. He was activated from the disabled list June 27 and only recently started firing the ball better. You can see here that he's struggled with his K/9 all year, the struggles coming with his injury woes.
As a result, his average velocity has dipped to 90.7 mph off his fastball, after being at 93.7 in 2004. Over his career, he's averaging 91.9 mph. One promising aspect of Kazmir's pitching this year is the return of his slider, which he largely shelved last year and can be traced to his strained left elbow in 2008 causing him trouble.
So, let me get this straight. Yes, Kazmir has a 5.92 ERA on the season, but his FIP is 4.79. He's struggled with injury this year, being lit up in five of his seven games prior to going on the disabled list. He struggled with inconsistency on his return, but has turned in three straight solid starts, the last one against Toronto coming with one walk against 10 strikeouts.
All this tells me that Kazmir is far from done being an ace. Yes, he might end up being an injury-prone starter for the next coming years. Yes, maybe Law, Neyer and Pouliot are all onto something. But 'Kaz' is being written off completely in this trade, which makes zero sense to me. He still has the talent to be an ace, and I'm guessing you'll see him at the top of the Angels' rotation next year, leading them to the playoffs.
Evan Brunell is currently editor of Fire Brand of the American League, a Red Sox blog he began in 2003. He also scores games at Fenway Park for MLB. He was the co-founder and president of MVN, an independent sports media web site.
“... and I’m guessing you’ll see him at the top of the Angels’ rotation next year, leading them to the playoffs.”
You don’t think the rangers, with all of their young talent (presently on the team and still coming), will finally pass the angels next year? Our pitching staff has had a great improvement this year and while some of it can be contributed to defense certainly some of it is also for real. Holland, Feliz, and Hunter have the talent to anchor the rotation for years. Plus we will still have Millwood and Feldman. Out hitting this year hasn’t been as good as expected, so I feel like it is a fair assumption to say it can only go up from here with Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Chris Davis all having off years. You can probably expect improvement from Elvis Andrus and Taylor Teagarden as well. Byrd’s value this year(assuming he is gone next year) will easily be replaced if not improved by borbon, who is hitting way over his head but is a much better defender than byrd. I think it is fair to say cruz and murphy can repeat their production next year. The only person who has a good chance to decline is michael young, and that is because he is having a monster season. All in All, i just don’t say the angels contending for the next 3 or 4 years with all the young talent the rangers have as well as the angels getting older and possibly losing key players (Vlad, John Lackey).