Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Panda month-by-month: What the fudge?
Posted by Steve TrederI had the pleasure of taking in one of the Giants vs. Braves games in Atlanta last week sitting next to THT's own Studes. When Pablo Sandoval came to bat, Studes asked me the obvious question, to which I, as a close observer of the Giants, should have some manner of reasonable answer, namely: just what the heck is going on with The Panda?
After all, he hit 330/387/556 last year as a 22-year-old, and while one might expect that particular torrid pace a bit difficult to sustain, a thudding drop all the way to 268/325/382, which is where Sandoval is through yesterday's games, was hardly what anyone expected.
The answer I gave Studes, the stock answer I give to everyone who asks (and I get asked this question with increasing and depressing regularity), is that The Panda doesn't appear to have the tremendous bat speed he wielded last year. He's been especially vulnerable to the high fastball, fouling off pitches he used to be driving with power. And one look at this ballplayer will suggest the likely reason for the loss bat speed: his weight, which is egregious. It would seem awfully hard to get around on the high heat when you've got that kind of belly in your way.
But here's the thing: the weight explanation would be a lot more persuasive if Sandoval were noticeably heavier this year than he was last year. But he isn't.
Moreover, one would think that whatever it is about Sandoval that's different this year than last would have manifested itself at the very beginning of this year—or perhaps even toward the end of last year. But it didn't.
Let me show you some numbers to explain what I mean.
Here's Pablo Sandoval's batting performance month-by-month, ever since he arrived in the majors in mid-August of 2008, though July of this year:
Month PA H 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip ISO Aug 08 58 22 4 1 1 1 6 .393 .397 .554 .950 .420 .161 Sep/Oct 08 96 28 6 0 2 3 8 .315 .333 .449 .783 .317 .134 Mar/Apr 09 80 23 5 1 1 3 12 .307 .350 .440 .790 .355 .133 May 09 100 29 9 1 2 5 12 .309 .350 .489 .839 .338 .180 Jun 09 109 37 9 0 8 13 16 .394 .459 .745 1.203 .403 .351 Jul 09 110 31 7 1 5 5 17 .298 .327 .529 .856 .313 .231 Aug 09 105 33 7 0 5 10 12 .355 .419 .591 1.010 .364 .236 Sep/Oct 09 129 36 7 2 4 16 14 .321 .403 .527 .930 .337 .206 Mar/Apr 10 97 32 7 1 3 10 8 .368 .433 .575 1.008 .382 .207 May 10 120 26 7 1 1 6 19 .234 .275 .342 .617 .269 .108 Jun 10 105 22 4 0 2 10 11 .234 .305 .340 .645 .244 .106 Jul 10 106 22 6 0 0 10 19 .232 .302 .295 .597 .286 .063Here's what strikes me about this: The Panda's performance in the first month of 2010 was tremendous, right in line with his hottest hitting of 2009. It wasn't until May of this year when the bottom just suddenly dropped out, and he weirdly has sustained his lousy May 2010 performance with dreary consistency through June and July—a level of performance vastly lower than any he'd presented in any month of his prior career.
We see that when Sandoval arrived in the big leagues, he was immediately a very high-average hitter, but with limited power and virtually no strike zone discipline. But over 2009, he sustained the lofty batting average, while adding substantial power, and an increasingly healthy walk rate as well.
Through March/April of 2010, he was keeping up that across-the-board excellence. Only in May did he suddenly encounter a disastrous evaporation in both batting average and Isolated Power. The drop in BAbip has been particularly stunning. He's still drawing a few walks, but not nearly enough to make up for the complete loss in production when he swings the bat.
So, I don't know. His weight might very well be a significant problem, but the fact is that Sandoval didn't suddenly gain a ton of weight on May 1, 2010. But whatever his problem is, it seems to have arrived with extraordinary suddenness in May, and it doesn't seem to be in any mood to go away.
Steve Treder can often be found spending way too much time talking baseball at Baseball Primer. He welcomes your questions and comments via e-mail.
Could it have anything to do with his divorce? Yogi Berra once said “90% of the game is half mental.”