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Wednesday, June 08, 2011

Pop quiz: Indians victories

Posted by Greg Simons
I wanted to get this pop quiz out there before the Cleveland Indians fall out of first place and THT's resident Tribe fan, Mat Kovach, performs ritualistic seppuku, so it couldn't wait for the weekend.

A significant slump on Cleveland's part, accompanied by a surge from Detroit, has resulted in the Indians clinging to a mere 1.5 game lead following their surprisingly strong first two months of the year. (Oh, by the way, Mat, I picked the Tigers to win the AL Central.)

While still nine games over .500, it seems likely Cleveland is beginning to regress to its appropriate level. The question is, what is that level?

That's where you come in. It's time to vote again, so please, let us know:

How many wins will the Cleveland Indians have in 2011?

Fewer than 72: The Tribe is about to crater.
73-79: Terrific start, but this is not a .500 team.
80-86: They'll stick around the top of the division for quite a while.
87-92: The Indians will battle for the AL Central crown.
More than 92: This is a blip, and Cleveland is gonna cruise to the playoffs.





Greg Simons finally, sadly has conceded that he won't have an MLB playing career. However, in his dreams, he's still the second coming of Ozzie Smith. Please don't wake him up, though you can e-mail him at gregbsimons AT yahoo DOT com.

Comments

Brad Johnson said...

They’re nine games above .500 now and I think they’re a roughly .500 true talent team. So I expect them to finish with 90 wins +/- 4.

Posted 06/08  at  08:55 AM
MikeS said...

Sorry, @Brad Johnson

90 wins would be 18 over .500 or 9 over from here on out.  If they play .500 the rest of the way they win 85.5(they have 103 left).  That’s a lot more realistic than 90 anyway.

Personally, I would guess they finish just under .500 as the pitching comes back to form.  Which would still be better than expected.

Posted 06/08  at  09:47 AM
Brad Johnson said...

Right you are, 85.5 +/-4 seems like a fine guess too.

Posted 06/08  at  09:55 AM
Duane Wallin said...

I’m waiting for the entire Twins team to show up and hope they make it interesting during the second half of the season.  Cleveland is a sub .500 team at the end, I believe.

Posted 06/08  at  02:05 PM
Brad Johnson said...

They have to play to a .447 win percentage to finish below .500. That would require considerable bad luck.

Posted 06/08  at  02:08 PM
Greg Simons said...

Can a team that has been eight games over .500 through its first 60 games finish eight or more games under .500 in its last 102 contests?  I certainly think so.

I think a .447 winning percentage, which is a 72-win pace over a full season, is a reasonable guess for the Indians.  No one (except Mat!) expected them to be nearly this good when the season started.

Posted 06/08  at  03:15 PM
Duane Wallin said...

Cleveland only has to go 0-8 to get to .500.  They have lost 7 of 8 just this last week.  They now go to NY to face the Yankees and on to Detroit.  Not a pretty scene right now.  They might even have trouble with the Pirates who are now 29-30.

Posted 06/08  at  06:39 PM
Mat Kovach said...

Hey now .. remember I am an Indians fan .. saying that they might falter is like saying that ‘water is wet’

But I look at it this way .. Tigers and Indians are going to fight for the AL Central. It is going to be fun. Both teams have players with DUI issues. Both teams are from towns from the rust belt.

It is going to be a fun ride and *that* is what baseball is about. Now, the White Sox have to fire Ozzie, the Royals hire him so my real prediction game come true!

Go Tribe!

Posted 06/08  at  10:22 PM
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