June 18, 2013
THT Essentials:
And here's the full roster.
Now available
You can now purchase the Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2013, with 300 pages of great content. It's also available on Amazon and Kindle. Read more about it here.
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Third Base: The Crossroads is THT's new e-book, available for $3.99 from the Kindle store. The good news is that anyone can read a Kindle book, even on a PC. So enjoy the best from THT in a new format.
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Friday, August 15, 2008
Predicting ERA
Posted by Dave Studeman
Colin Wyers has done something I meant to do earlier this year: a new and in-depth analysis of the effectiveness of various ERA "component" stats. The study seems sound to me, though I would have created a league-specific FIP add-on for each year (which is what we do here at THT), instead of using 3.2 in all cases.
Colin finds that the "DIPS" estimators (FIP and DIPS) are the best estimators of a pitcher's ERA in the next year. That's why we carry FIP in our THT stats. Colin also introduces a new ERA component stat, a FIP/Base Runs hybrid, which appears to be the best ERA predictor of all.
Dave was called a "national treasure" by Rob Neyer. Seriously. Comments about this article can be sent to him through the miracle of e-mail.
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