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Saturday, June 13, 2009

Simple Zone Rating takes on the outfield

Posted by Colin Wyers

Retroera SZR now covers the outfield, as well.

These are park-adjusted based upon one year of data, unregressed. This is not ideal, of course, but will be addressed (hopefully) in the next update. I calculate the average rating in each park by season, weighting the home team's performance so that it does not take up a disproportionate amount of the result. (In other words, in a 14-team league, the home team's plays made and chances are both multplied by 1/14.) Each player is then compared to a weighted average of the zone rating in the parks, home and road, that they played in.

The 10 most plays made (or not made) relative to positional average:

Last First POS Years CH P_M
Jones Andruw 8 1996-2008 6220.7 159.0
Mays Willie 8 1954-1973 8730.3 155.5
Flood Curt 8 1958-1971 5578.7 149.4
Davis Willie 8 1960-1976 7377.4 140.3
Clemente Roberto 9 1955-1972 5823.7 134.2
Cruz Jose 7 1971-1988 3860.1 129.4
Blair Paul 8 1964-1980 5787.1 117.0
Oliva Tony 9 1962-1972 3159.6 112.9
Kaline Al 9 1954-1973 5395.1 107.6
Barfield Jesse 9 1981-1992 3821.6 107.2
Last First POS Years CH P_M
Burroughs Jeff 9 1970-1982 2145.6 -73.7
Burnitz Jeromy 9 1993-2006 3640.2 -74.0
Winfield Dave 9 1974-1994 5326.4 -76.5
Murphy Dale 8 1980-1990 3488.2 -77.7
Bell Gus 8 1953-1962 2993.7 -78.6
Matthews Gary 7 1972-1987 3636.5 -79.3
Lynn Fred 8 1974-1990 5935.8 -82.1
Buhner Jay 9 1987-2001 3675.2 -87.4
Tartabull Danny 9 1986-1997 2341.3 -92.2
Griffey Ken 8 1989-2008 7579.1 -109.6

Remember - this is not an estimate of "worst," as the players who grade out the lowest here still had an incredible amount of playing time at the position, which the worst defensive players do not.

Additionally, I'm making available the SQL code used to generate all Retroera SZR, both infield and outfield. I'm looking forward to seeing what others are able to do with it!

Further enhancements to RetroSZR, as well as a substantial set of improvements to the pre-Retro SZR, are next on the docket.





Colin Wyers knows exactly how much of a nerd he is. He is very interested in hearing about any other concerns you may have; you can reach him by e-mail, and he will try his best to respond in a timely fashion. He also blogs at Statistically Speaking.


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