Sunday, August 09, 2009
Smoltz DFA’d
Posted by Nick SteinerHere is what John Smoltz has done so far this year:
40 IP
9 BB
33 K
8 HR
4.92 FIP
4.32 xFIP
While he certainly hasn't been pitching like he did in his prime, it's clear that John Smoltz has had a pretty solid year. His K:BB ratio is actually above his career marks, and only an elevated HR/FB ratio is keeping his FIP high. As most people who read this site know, HR/FB is, for the most part, out of a pitchers control. Especially when that pitcher pitches half of his games in front of the Green Monster. If you are a believer in xFIP, which adjusts for that HR/FB luck, then he has been pitching like a league average starter, which is quite a feat while pitching in a hitters ballpark and in the toughest division in baseball.
That makes this, all the more surprising:
Of course, Smoltz's ERA is 8.33; however, the Red Sox are supposedly one of the more sabermetric friendly organizations out there. Anyway, Smoltz is now free to all teams and could be a good pickup for a contending team with a hole in the starting rotation or bullpen (hint, hint... Cardinals). ZIPS projects a 3.60 FIP the rest of the season, although that seems a little bullish given his advanced age. Still, even adding a half a run per 9 to that projection would still make him a valuable pitcher, and his postseason experience could only be a positive.
Nick is a Cardinals fan living in LA. He also writes for Viva El Birdos. He welcomes questions and comments via email
I’m getting more and more skeptical of FIP. I feel like it’s the kind of thing that works pretty well for 90-95% of players, but it just ignores outliers altogether and groups them in with everybody else.
Smoltz was pretty awful, and I don’t think his FIP really represents how bad he was. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if he still had a little left in the tank for a team with a bigger park and poorer opposition.