I’m getting more and more skeptical of FIP. I feel like it’s the kind of thing that works pretty well for 90-95% of players, but it just ignores outliers altogether and groups them in with everybody else.

Smoltz was pretty awful, and I don’t think his FIP really represents how bad he was. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if he still had a little left in the tank for a team with a bigger park and poorer opposition.

In 40 IP, the RMSE on xFIP is going to be something like 1.28; in other words, an xFIP of 4.32 means a true talent of somewhere between 3.04 and 5.60. (Assuming that a 3.04 ERA is just as likely as a 5.60 ERA, which is simply not true at all.) His xFIP really isn’t a reliable indicator of true talent at all in that sample size.

@Truantbuick

What makes you think that Smoltz is one of those rare pitchers who is worse than his FIP/xFIP?  He has never displayed that trait in his career before; and his batted ball profile this year doesn’t scream “hittable” either.

@Wooden

Thanks for pointing that out.  I had just assumed that Fenway inflates homers; however, that was a stupid assumption and I am glad you pointed it out.  Still, you don’t deny that his HR/FB ratio is elevated, right? 

@Colin

Basically, what Dan said.

Of course he isn’t as good as he once was!  I even said that in the original post.  It’s obvious that his stuff has declined, and probably his command too (although his numbers don’t reflect that). 

My position is that he was pitching like an average starter, in a difficult environment, and would be a solid 4 ERA pitcher in the NL.

Tom, you should really look beyond ERA.  Fenway is a bitch to pitchers, and the Red Sox defense isn’t very good.  Also, his strand rate is insanely low, and that is certainly unsustainable. His peripherals are still very solid, and as Harry Pavlidis showed here…

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/8/18/994008/john-smoltz-whats-left-in-the-tank#19868870

His pitches are still above average in terms of what hitters are doing off them (defense independent of course).  Having seen him pitch a couple of times, it’s clear that he isn’t the Smotlz of old; however, that Smoltz was a 3.00 ERA pitcher!!  As a Cards fan, I may be a little biased, but all the evidence points towards Smoltz still being a very solid pitcher, and one who is certainly an upgrade over most 5th starters in the game.