November 23, 2009
Order Now The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 is now in development and will ship in mid November! This year's book will feature articles by THT's staff as well as Bill James, Tom Tango and Craig Wright. If you use this link to purchase the Annual, you will be in the first group to receive it and you'll be supporting THT. Most Recent Comments
Introducing Visual Baseball (1)
HR/FB Park Factors (8) Why Baseball Needs a Visual Facelift (5) Building a Retrosheet database, the short form (4) Is peak at age 29? (7) 
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Monday, March 30, 2009The Diamond Mind Projection Blowout 2009Posted by David GasskoSG posted the results of his annual Diamond Mind projection blowout today, running 1,000 simulations each with six different projection systems to try to predict the 2009 standings. You can find his results for THT here. Last year, of the six systems SG tested, THT had the best average error at the end of the season (meaning we were closer, on average, to predicting the team's final record than any other system) and the third-best RMSE. Obviously, I hope we finish first in both categories this year. If we trust that each projection system has something useful to say, one way of figuring out how well a job they're doing is by aggregating their projections and seeing how each system correlates with the overall average. Here are the results for this year: CAIRO, 0.976 THT, 0.971 PECOTA, 0.970 ZiPS, 0.966 CHONE, 0.938 Marcel, 0.908 You can see that CAIRO is closest to the consensus, with THT a close second. Marcel is the big outlier here, probably mostly because it doesn't know anything about minor league performance, park adjustments, or any other complications the other systems include. We'll see at the end of the season how well each system did in projecting actual performance. David Gassko is a former consultant to a major league team. He welcomes comments via e-mail. CommentsLeave a comment:Commenting is not available in this weblog entry. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||