November 7, 2009
Order Now The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 is now in development and will ship in mid November! This year's book will feature articles by THT's staff as well as Bill James, Rob Neyer, Tom Tango and Craig Wright. If you use this link to purchase the Annual, you will be in the first group to receive it and you'll be supporting THT. Most Recent Comments
Ranking Yankee World Champions (3)
Twins strike for J.J. Hardy (1) Both sides come out ahead in Teahen swap (9) Rays get something for nothing in Iwamura trade (6) So, just how good was Damon’s steal? (12) 
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Monday, September 29, 2008The Dodgers have the best offense of any NL playoff teamPosted by Sal BaxamusaDon't believe me? I don't blame you. The Dodgers scored 4.32 runs per game in the regular season, well below average. But there are a few problems with looking at that figure. First, the Dodgers are not the same team today that they were in April. Second, backups and scrubs are far less likely to see playing time in the postseason. Last, and most importantly, we can't look at a team's performance record and assume that they'll continue to perform the same. So, we have to figure out which players are on the roster, which ones are likely to play, and what the true talent of those players are going forward. I did just that, here's what I came up with: A Dodger lineup consisting of Rafael Furcal, Russell Martin, Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier, James Loney, Matt Kemp, Casey Blake, Blake Dewitt, and some random pitcher will score something like 5.18 runs per game. That figure is the result of current Marcel projections for each those players, assuming an average-hitting pitcher for two plate appearances, and a league-average pinch-hitter for two more. As for the other NL playoff teams: Cubs: Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Theriot, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Jim Edmonds, Mike Fontenot, Kosuke Fukudome, and a pitcher will score around 5.12 runs per game. If Mark DeRosa gets back in the lineup at Fukudome's expense, that figure will jump to 5.20. Phillies: Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Jayson Werth, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino, Pedro Feliz, Carlos Ruiz, and a pitcher will score around 5.08 runs per game. Brewers: Mike Cameron, Ray Durham, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Corey Hart, Bill Hall, Jason Kendall, and a pitcher will score around 4.83 runs per game, by far the worst among NL playoff contenders. Luckily for them, they've got CC Sabathia pitching pretty much every game! Feel free to quibble with the lineups if I missed an obvious injury or managerial tendency. Any interest in seeing the AL? Sal Baxamusa is a graduate student in chemical engineering. He can be reached here. CommentsLeave a comment:Commenting is not available in this weblog entry. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||