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Wednesday, January 25, 2012

THT Forecasts - 2012 Oliver projected-WAR starting lineup

Posted by Greg Tamer
Using the 2012 Oliver database, here is the top-projected-WAR starting lineup:

Pos Player       2012 Projected WAR
P   Yu Darvish          7.0 (Wow!)
C   Joe Mauer           3.5
1B  Albert Pujols       5.5
2B  Robinson Cano       4.5
3B  Evan Longoria       4.6
SS  Troy Tulowitzki     5.6
LF  Ryan Braun*         4.6
CF  Matt Kemp           4.9
RFl Jose Bautista       3.9
                       -----
                       44.1

* - If Braun indeed suspended for 50 games, will then substitute in Matt Holiday, 4.2 projected WAR.

Think you could construct a lineup with other players that will out-WAR the above lineup in 2012? Perhaps worth an investigation after the season!

THT Forecasts is available for the 2012 season, with Brian Cartwright's Oliver database providing over 9000 projections for major and minor leaguers. Visit Forecasts today to learn more and sign up for only $14.95!



Greg Tamer is the Manager of THT Forecasts. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions via e-mail.

Comments

elwin said...

Who is the substitute for Yu Darvish? A 7.0 WAR projection seems like a problem with translating stats from Japan.

Posted 01/25  at  03:45 PM
Greg Tamer said...

Darvish’s substitute would be Justin Verlander, 6.7 WAR.

Posted 01/25  at  03:50 PM
Brad Johnson said...

I’ll take a stab at this - with no repeats to boot

Roy Halladay
Miguel Cabrera
Ian Kinsler
Pablo Sandoval
Jose Reyes
Matt Holliday
Jacoby Ellsbury
Mike Stanton

I’d really prefer to use Tulo to Reyes, but I did say no repeats…I’m also tempted to use Granderson over Ellsbury.

It’s worth mentioning that Oliver has it’s own calculation of WAR that differs subtly from fWAR and bWar.

Posted 01/26  at  10:20 AM
Darren said...

I noticed that Oliver projections have no players with negative Fielding Runs. Is this skewing the WAR figures?

Posted 01/26  at  04:29 PM
aladou said...

Brad - catcher?

Posted 01/26  at  04:30 PM
Brad Johnson said...

Ha, good catch. I was debating the merits of Santana vs Napoli. A debate I will continue to have until well into the season. Let’s say Santana.

Posted 01/26  at  04:38 PM
rbt said...

Yeah, I’d take that Darvish projection with a huge grain of salt.  I have a hard time accepting that for a player who has yet to throw a pitch in this country, no matter how good he was in Japan.

Posted 01/26  at  06:09 PM
Chitownron said...

Greg who would the DH be?

Posted 01/29  at  04:54 AM
Greg Tamer said...

DH would be Adrian Gonzalez, 5.2 WAR. 

Also, I overlooked Mike Stanton, since for some weird reason he is classified as “OF” instead of “RF”.  He also has a 5.2-WAR projection and should be in the starting lineup instead of Bautista.

Posted 01/30  at  10:17 PM
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