Thursday, June 23, 2011
THT Forecasts - Derek Jeter - Long-Term ForecastPosted by Greg Tamer
Greetings from THT Forecasts! Today's topics are Derek Jeter and long-term forecasting.
In addition to forecasting the current season, THT Forecasts also provides six-year major-league equivalent forecasts that are presented on each player's page. These long-term forecasts are available even for minor league guys -- for example, future Anaheim centerfielder, Mike Trout, is projected to hit .314/.394/.517 in 2017.
I'm then curious ... given the current attention on Jeter and his hit total (3000 soon; Atta boy!), if Jeter finishes his current contract with the Yankees, including the player-option for the 2014 season, and then retires at the age of 40, how many hits, times on base, total bases, and outs will he have accumulated according to THT Forecasts? And, where will these numbers place him on the career leaderboards?
At the moment, Jeter has 2994 hits. That one I'm guessing you know. He's also successfully reached base 4121 times, bagged 4303 total bases, and made 7048 outs. Did you know he had surpassed 4000 times on base, 4000 total bases, and 7000 outs? Hits and home runs receive all the 20th-century counting-stat love that still lingers today.
THT Forecasts has Jeter amassing 533 more hits and 702 total bases, reaching on base 719 times, and making 1507 outs through the 2014 season. His totals would then be 3527 hits (5th all time), 5005 total bases (8th all time), 4840 times on base (11th all time), and 8555 outs (6th all time). I'm impressed.
Ah, yes, please note I neglected to account for active players also climbing up the lists. Alex Rodriguez, Jim Thome, Chipper Jones, Ivan Rodriguez, Vladimir Guerrero already have more total bases than does Jeter, and Omar Vizquel and Ivan Rodriguez have made more outs. Jeter is the current active leader in hits and times on base.
So while the focus now is on 3000 hits, I'm more looking forward to seeing if he can accumulate 5000 total bases (likely) and reach base 5000 times (not likely, unless he signs a new contract and keeps playing past 40).
Please visit THT Forecasts for more information about our projection system.
Greg Tamer is the Manager of THT Forecasts. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions via e-mail.