Thursday, March 11, 2010
THT Forecasts update, the short versionPosted by David Gassko
Below is a long post detailing all the updates we've made to THT Forecasts today. Here is the short version, for those of you who don't want so much detail:
(1) We have added leader boards for all of our projections. So, for example, if you want to see which hitters project to lead the leagues in Wins Above Replacement, you can figure it out no problem. You can also filter the leader boards by team, league, and level. So, for example, if you want to see just the Yankees' hitters, you can look at both their depth-chart adjusted projections, or just their computer-generated projections. You can also choose to look at just AL players, or just Triple-A players, or even just AL Triple-A players. The possibilities are endless.
(2) We have fixed a problem with the hitter Major League Equivalences (MLEs). The post below explains the problem in-depth, but all you need to know is that our projections for prospects have now been fixed, meaning that if you want to know how valuable Jason Heyward will be over the next six years, you can trust our numbers (and the answer to that question, by the way, appears to be very valuable).
(3) The fielding projections for years past 2010 were previously static (i.e. we just copied and pasted the 2010 projection), but that's now been fixed.
(4) There is also a bug in the Oliver code for calculating catcher fielding ratings. We're working on fixing that right now, but so as not to give you misleading projections in the meantime, we've more-or-less zeroed-out all the catcher fielding numbers.
With think we've really improved THT Forecasts with this latest update (and to be honest, we thought it was a pretty snazzy product beforehand, too), and we'll continue to implement more improvements over the coming weeks, months, and hopefully years. If you haven't subscribed to THT Forecasts yet, what are you waiting for?
David Gassko is a former consultant to a major league team. He welcomes comments via e-mail.