Tuesday, June 07, 2011
THT Forecasts - WAR - Pre-season Forecast vs. Current Full-year ForecastPosted by Greg Tamer
Greetings from THT Forecasts. I hope your fantasy teams -- no doubt constructed with the aid of THT Forecasts! -- and favorite MLB teams are doing well.
Since THT Forecasts is updated weekly by Brian and Bryan, I decided to quickly and easily compare Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for position players between (1) their pre-season projection that uses only data from previous seasons and (2) their current full-year forecast that combines their year-to-date data with their rest-of-the-season forecast (that still uses data from previous seasons).
This comparison will reveal to me which position players are currently most over-performing and under-performing thus far into the season with respect to what their end-of-season numbers will likely be. I could have tripled their year-to-date WAR for an estimate of their final season numbers, but, for example, it is a safe bet that Albert Pujols will not finish with only 3.6 WAR based solely on his slow start this season. So I used THT Forecasts' full-year forecast instead.
Tables presented after the jump.
The following tables contain all players I have calculated/estimated to be currently over-performing or under-performing by at least 2.0 WAR. Pujols almost made the under-performing list, as his full-year forecast of 5.5 WAR is -1.6 WAR off of his pre-season WAR of 7.1.
Do you want the good news or bad news first? I will end with a positive, so bad news first.
fyWAR = full-year WAR forecast, and psWAR = pre-season WAR forecast.
Current WAR Forecast Under-performers Name Pos Org Lg fyWAR psWAR Diff Johnson, Dan 1B TBA AL -1.2 2.1 -3.3 Mauer, Joe C MIN AL 2.9 6.1 -3.2 Ramirez, Manny DH TBA AL -0.4 2.6 -3.0 Ramirez, Hanley SS FLO NL 2.4 5.4 -3.0 Montero, Jesus C NYA AL 0.5 3.2 -2.7 Uggla, Dan 2B ATL NL 0.7 3.2 -2.5 Wells, Vernon CF ANA AL -1.0 1.5 -2.5 Utley, Chase 2B PHI NL 2.6 5.0 -2.4 Markakis, Nick RF BAL AL -0.5 1.9 -2.4 Posey, Buster C SFN NL 1.4 3.7 -2.3 Flowers, Tyler C CHA AL 0.1 2.3 -2.2 Rios, Alex CF CHA AL -0.8 1.4 -2.2 Francisco, Juan 3B CIN NL -0.2 1.9 -2.1 Heyward, Jason RF ATL NL 2.0 4.1 -2.1 Scutaro, Marco SS BOS AL 0.3 2.3 -2.0 Morneau, Justin 1B MIN AL 1.3 3.3 -2.0 Stewart, Ian 3B COL NL -0.1 1.9 -2.0 Carpenter, Matt 3B STL NL 0.0 2.0 -2.0Note that injuries and retirement are accounted for in the full-year forecast.
Finally, the good news.
Current WAR Forecast Over-performers. Name Pos Org Lg fyWAR psWAR Diff Bautista, Jose RF TOR AL 7.1 1.4 5.7 Kemp, Matt CF LAN NL 5.6 2.5 3.1 Ortiz, David DH BOS AL 3.7 1.1 2.6 Joyce, Matt RF TBA AL 4.3 1.8 2.5 Youkilis, Kevin 3B BOS AL 5.8 3.3 2.5 Ramirez, Alexei SS CHA AL 3.6 1.1 2.5 Ellsbury, Jacoby CF BOS AL 3.6 1.2 2.4 Reyes, Jose SS NYN NL 4.4 2.0 2.4 Lillibridge, Brent RF CHA AL 0.8 -1.5 2.3 Span, Denard CF MIN AL 4.2 2.0 2.2 Cabrera, Asdrubal SS CLE AL 3.2 1.1 2.1 Votto, Joey 1B CIN NL 5.8 3.7 2.1 Braun, Ryan LF MIL NL 5.4 3.3 2.1 Sanchez, Gaby 1B FLO NL 2.3 0.3 2.0Please visit THT Forecasts for more information about our projection system.
Greg Tamer is the Manager of THT Forecasts. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions via e-mail.