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Wednesday, March 18, 2009

THT Projected Standings, as of March 9

Posted by David Gassko
We've re-run our projected standings with some help from SG of the Replacement Level Yankees Blog, and I thought I would share the results below the fold. Note that the standings are based on 100 simulations in Diamond Mind Baseball. The "DIV" column tells you the percentage of the time that a team won their division in our simulations, and "WC" tells you the same for the Wild Card. The rosters are accurate as of March 9.

Team    W       L       RF      RA      DIV     WC
American League
East
NYA09         99      63     857     691    56.5    28.0
Bos09         94      68     833     692    25.0    41.5
Tam09         91      71     786     685    18.5    26.0
Tor09         75      87     698     753     0.0     1.5
Bal09         75      87     792     858     0.0     1.0

Central
Cle09         84      78     807     770    49.0     0.0
Det09         83      79     797     772    32.5     0.0
Min09         77      85     723     761    10.0     0.0
KC09          75      87     736     802     3.5     0.0
ChA09         73      89     763     854     5.0     0.0

West
LAA09         84      78     793     768    49.0     0.0
Oak09         82      80     773     740    33.5     1.0
Sea09         78      84     717     741    14.0     1.0
Tex09         73      89     803     899     3.5     0.0

National League
East
NYN09         90      72     825     740    48.0    15.7
Atl09         87      75     756     699    24.5    14.8
Phi09         85      77     806     772    26.0    20.0
Flo09         72      90     738     821     1.5     0.0
Was09         68      94     740     866     0.0     0.0

Central
ChN09         92      70     820     716    67.5    12.3
Mil09         84      78     798     763    17.5    10.8
StL09         83      79     772     748    11.0     8.8
Cin09         79      83     738     760     3.0     4.0
Hou09         73      89     748     818     1.0     0.0
Pit09         71      91     727     825     0.0     0.0

West
Ari09         86      76     743     701    44.5     2.0
LA09          85      77     802     765    39.0     7.0
SF09          79      83     688     703     9.0     4.0
Col09         76      86     803     849     5.0     0.5
SD09          75      87     708     760     2.5     0.0


David Gassko is a former consultant to a major league team. He welcomes comments via e-mail.


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