THT Projections Update

Posted by David Gassko
For those who purchased The Hardball Times Season Preview 2008 (and for those who haven't, it's not too late!), we've posted a couple updated projection files to the Preview site.

The first file contains updated projections and fantasy values, as well as a column with depth charts generously donated by SG of RLYW fame. Otherwise, it's pretty much equivalent to the projection file that was up before.

The second file we've posted because of reader demand for fantasy numbers. As I wrote in the Season Preview, we used Run, RBI, Win, and Save numbers derived from simulating the season 100 times to calculate our fantasy values. We did not, however, make those numbers available to the reader. Now we are, so that not only do you see how much we think each player is worth, but the numbers that go into that value.

One note on our fantasy values: In the projection sheet, values are included for only those players who we think are worth something in a 12-team, 5x5 league. But in the other spreadsheet, we have included fantasy values for almost a thousand players, so many of the values are negative -- don't take that too literally.

Anyway, since we had to run 100 simulations (thanks SG!) to project fantasy stats, we also have a new set of projected standings. There have a fair number of changes, and here's how we now see things shaking out. Keep in mind that "Div" is the number of times that the team won the division in the simulations and "WC" is the number of times it won the wild card.

Team       W       L       RS      RA      DIV     WC
American League
East
NYA08         93      69     949     818    46.5    24.5
Bos08         92      70     829     713    47.0    18.5
Tor08         86      76     779     745     4.5    24.5
Tam08         81      81     816     825     2.0    10.0
Bal08         66      96     752     901     0.0     0.0

Central
Det08         90      72     849     756    62.0     3.5
Cle08         86      76     839     771    31.5     7.5
ChA08         75      87     803     872     3.0     0.0
Min08         74      88     724     791     3.5     1.0
KC08          73      89     781     864     0.0     1.0

West
LAA08         90      72     813     719    75.0     4.0
Oak08         80      82     777     798    11.5     3.0
Sea08         79      83     718     752    11.5     1.5
Tex08         76      86     823     864     2.0     1.0

National League
East
NYN08         99      63     836     677    82.5     9.5
Phi08         89      73     900     808    13.0    40.0
Atl08         85      77     819     783     4.5    16.0
Was08         69      93     726     843     0.0     0.0
Flo08         62     100     703     873     0.0     0.0

Central
Mil08         89      73     826     754    50.8     5.8
ChN08         86      76     814     756    30.8     6.3
StL08         81      81     782     795    15.0     0.0
Cin08         77      85     811     843     2.3     3.3
Hou08         73      89     740     833     1.0     2.0
Pit08         69      93     713     837     0.0     0.0

West
SD08          90      72     763     685    59.0     6.0
LAN08         83      79     751     734    15.5     3.8
Ari08         81      81     737     724    12.5     3.3
Col08         81      81     824     804    12.0     3.8
SF08          75      87     666     732     1.0     0.0

David Gassko is a former consultant to a major league team. He welcomes comments via e-mail.

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Thursday, March 20, 2008

THT Projections Update

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