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Saturday, November 28, 2009

Top baserunners of 2009

This is a look at baserunning runs, excluding stolen base attempts. Here's the basic method:

• For all plays, we consider the lead runner only.
• We figure out the average change in run expectancy for the lead runner for each non-discretionary running event - typically a ball in play (either a hit, error or out). Those plays are grouped by:
  • The number of outs in the inning.
  • The type of event - single, double, etc. (A fielder's choice is considered an ordinary out.)
  • For batting outs, whether the ball was hit in the air or on the ground.
  • The position of the player who fields the ball.
• Then we figure the change in run expectancy for the lead runner on each individual baserunning play. For a non-discretionary event, we subtract the average value of that running play. For a discretionary running play, such as a wild pitch or passed ball, we do not - a runner is not penalized for the decision not to run.

That gives us our baserunning runs. Your leaders (and trailers) for 2009:

Your typical caveats apply - don't read too much into a one year sample. Remember that players at the extremes during any sample tend to regress to the mean as the sample increases, etc.

The full list is available here.

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