Saturday, November 28, 2009
Top baserunners of 2009Posted by Colin Wyers
This is a look at baserunning runs, excluding stolen base attempts. Here's the basic method:
- For all plays, we consider the lead runner only.
- We figure out the average change in run expectancy for the lead runner for each non-discretionary running event - typically a ball in play (either a hit, error or out). Those plays are grouped by:
- The number of outs in the inning.
- The type of event - single, double, etc. (A fielder's choice is considered an ordinary out.)
- For batting outs, whether the ball was hit in the air or on the ground.
- The position of the player who fields the ball.
- Then we figure the change in run expectancy for the lead runner on each individual baserunning play. For a non-discretionary event, we subtract the average value of that running play. For a discretionary running play, such as a wild pitch or passed ball, we do not - a runner is not penalized for the decision not to run.
That gives us our baserunning runs. Your leaders (and trailers) for 2009:
Your typical caveats apply - don't read too much into a one year sample. Remember that players at the extremes during any sample tend to regress to the mean as the sample increases, etc.
The full list is available here.
Colin Wyers knows exactly how much of a nerd he is. He is very interested in hearing about any other concerns you may have; you can reach him by e-mail, and he will try his best to respond in a timely fashion. He also blogs at Statistically Speaking.