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Saturday, July 18, 2009Washington’s futility: some historic perspectivePosted by Chris JaffeThe Nats just lost to the Cubs, dropping their record to 26-64 (.289), putting them on pace for a 47-115 season. Sucks, don't it? They should regress to the mean some, but here's one way to look at it: the Nats are the 14th team in history to have a 26-64 record at the 90-decision marker. Here are the previous contestants, their final winning percentage: 1890 BUF (PL) .273 1894 WAS (NL) .341 1909 BOS (NL) .294 1909 WAS (AL) .276 1911 STB (AL) .296 1920 PHA (AL) .312 1921 PHI (NL) .331 1929 BOS (AL) .377 1939 PHI (NL) .298 1939 STB (AL) .279 1946 PHA (AL) .318 1964 NYM (NL) .327 1997 PHI (NL) .420 Well, 10 got better. Then again, 10 also lost over two-thirds of their games. The 1997 Phillies really stick out. If you're curious, 7 teams went 27-63 to start the year. The best of them, the 1937 A's, ended the year with a .358 winning percentage. Another 7 teams have started out 25-65 and the best record their most impressive end mark was .342. So, out of 25 teams total who began the year with 25-27 wins at this point, only two ended on the good side of .360. Another way of looking at it, in the last 60 years, the Nationals are only the seventh team to start off with 26 or fewer wins through 90 decisions. The others: 1) 1952 Pirates 25-65. They ended the year 42-112 2) 1962 Mets 24-66. They ended the year 40-120. 3) 1964 Mets 26-44. They ended the year 53-109. 4) 1979 A's 25-65. They ended the year 54-108. 5) 1997 Phillies 26-64. They ended the year 68-94. 6) 2003 Tigers 24-66. They ended the year 43-119. These guys played .278 up to this point in the season but were way up at .339 from Game 91-onward. Take out the Phillies, and the other five only played .309 afterwards. The 1997 Phils actually went 42-30 down the stretch. What got into them? No, it's nothing groundbreaking, but WOW - the Nationals sure look bad! History instructor by day, statnerd by night, Chris Jaffe leads one of the most exciting double lives imaginable; with the exception of every other double life possible to imagine. Despite his lack of comic-book-hero-worthiness, Chris enjoys farting around with this stuff. His new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers is available for order. Chris welcomes responses to his articles via e-mail. Comments
Dave Studeman said...
He’s right here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/1292/chris-carpenter Posted 07/19 at 08:38 PM
john boeger said...
Dave, chris Carpender is not listed on the list of all the pitchers. nor is he listed with the other pitchers on the ESPN list of pitchers. Posted 07/19 at 09:25 PM
Dave Studeman said...
What “list of all the pitchers” are you referring to? Maybe a link? Posted 07/19 at 09:27 PM
john boeger said...
under “stats”, go to “national league” and then click on “basic pitching”. Carp is not on the basic pitching list so that the reader does not realize just how good he really is compared to the all star game pitchers. Posted 07/19 at 09:40 PM
Dave Studeman said...
Oh, I see. Thanks. If you look on that page under “Qualified” (in the selection box at the top), you’ll see that it’s set to “Yes.” Chris Carpenter doesn’t qualify for the ERA title because he’s pitched 91.2 innings and the Cards have played 93 games. The benchmark for qualification is 1 inning per game played (162 IP over a full season). To view Carpenter’s place on the list, you can reset the Qualified to “No” or “Both,” or you can wait until his IP equals or exceeds games played by St. Louis. Hope that helps. Posted 07/19 at 10:09 PM
Wooden U. Lykteneau said...
Hey, Chris - Elvis is still dead. Just thought I’d point that out, since you seem to enjoy stating the obvious. Posted 07/20 at 07:27 AM
Chris J. said...
Wooden - that can’t be. I saw Elvis shopping for veggies at the supermarket last with with General Franco. Posted 07/20 at 09:22 AM
Wooden U. Lykteneau said...
I saw Elvis shopping for veggies at the supermarket last with with General Franco. Last with? Is that the same as last week? Posted 07/20 at 09:30 AM
Chris J. said...
Last with? Is that the same as last week? Hopefully. Posted 07/20 at 09:33 AM
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where is chris carpenter in your pitching stats? he is 8 and 3, 2.26 era(second in the national league)and has pitched 91.7 innings, even though he was out with an injury. what gives??????
for your info, espn must use your stats, because chris is missing in their stats also.
please reply.
john boeger