Thursday, December 17, 2009
What’s the matter with relievers?
Posted by Jeremy GreenhouseTake it away, CHONE:
| Player | Innings | ERA | RAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gonzalez | 49 | 3.67 | 5 |
| Brandon Lyon | 64 | 3.66 | 6 |
| Rafael Soriano | 52 | 3.29 | 6 |
| Billy Wagner | 37 | 3.41 | 5 |
So the Red Sox trade for Billy Wagner, with Wagner agreeing on the condition that they not pick up his option. However, he allows them to offer him arbitration, apparently not understanding how type-A status will put him in the Juan Cruz class. Well, the Braves had other plans. Before they even heard back from the two type-A relievers to whom they'd offered arbitration, Braves were so eager to give up their first round pick that they signed Wagner to a $7-million one-year deal, with a $6.25 vesting option. Rafael Soriano then decided to accept arbitration, and signed for $7.25 to pitch in 2010. So the Braves could have just held onto Soriano instead of signing Wagner. Wagner gives them similar production on a similar contract, but comes at the cost of draft picks. And then Brandon Lyon and Mike Gonzalez (the Braves other type A) sign multi-year contracts with uncompetitive teams that had just finally gotten out from under the costly contracts of Jose Valverde and Danys Baez. Teams are giving away draft picks and $5-7 million/year contracts for the sake of approximately five runs a year. I’m lost.
Can someone please tell me what’s going on?
Any questions? Feel free to email me.
Well, the obvious answer is that the teams don’t know what they’re doing.
Other, subtler answers might be:
- Although Soriano and Wagner were 5-6 RAR in 2009, the teams expect better performance in 2010. After all, you do want better than a mid-3 ERA out of your closer if you expect to be competitive.
- Maybe the runs a closer saves or gives up are higher-leverage runs in terms of wins? 5 runs better than replacement value might be 5 wins. Or something like that.