Posted by Dave Studeman
Pizza Cutter has a nice article on what happens to starting pitchers as they stay in the game. My quick interpretation: every ten pitches adds about .04 runs per game, so a pitcher who has a 4.00 ERA at the beginning of a game has become 4.40 ERA pitcher by his 100th pitch. I'm unclear how his methodology handles the selective sample bias, though he says it does (and I trust him!).
Dave was called a "national treasure" by Rob Neyer. Seriously. Comments about this article can be sent to him through the miracle of e-mail.
