Monday, December 26, 2011
Who will be out of the Nats’ rotation?Posted by Lucas Apostoleris
The Nationals’ acquisition of Gio Gonzalez gives them six major-league pitchers vying for five spots in the 2012 rotation. Gonzalez joins a crew of starters that includes Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, John Lannan, Ross Detwiler, and veteran Chien-Ming Wang, who is returning to Washington on a one-year contract.
In a conference call on Friday, Nationals’ GM Mike Rizzo implied that the rotation jobs of Gonzalez, Zimmermann, and Strasburg are safe; according to Rizzo, it is “fair to say” that Lannan, Wang or Detwiler will end up in the bullpen at the beginning of next season.
Purely speculation, but Lannan and particularly Detwiler could net some value if the Nats decide to go that route. Anyway, the point is that either by a move to the bullpen, a demotion, or a trade, there’s going to be an odd man out somehow. But which one should go?
First, ponder some splits for all three pitchers. Throughout their careers, all three are similar at bat-missing and strike-throwing (not great); Detwiler is average at getting groundballs, while Wang and Lannan have been well above-average.
pitcher No. of pitches Ball/pitch Wwhiff/swing GB/BIP Wang 11,008 .377 .143 .599 Lannan 11,835 .379 .145 .543 Detwiler 2,791 .382 .147 .442
Lannan, 27, has been solid in the Nationals’ rotation since 2008, averaging 179 innings per season with an ERA around four . Wang, who will be 32 before Opening Day, is trying to revive his career after injuries put things on hold from him from 2008 to 2010. When he’s right, he’ll kill a lot of worms with his sinker, but his lack of a true out pitch has always prevented him from being an ace.
Detwiler is the youngster of the group, turning 26 in March. He’s bounced up and down between the majors and minors since 2007 (the year he was drafted) and has posted unspectacular numbers during his minor league career (3.97 ERA, 3.8 BB+HBP/9, 7.7 K/9). His 2011 stint in the rotation featured lower strikeout and walk numbers and, ultimately, a similar K/BB of around two.
Of the three, Wang had the most impressive peak, though it was half a decade ago. He’s a clear injury risk. Lannan is the most established, which probably gives him a bit of a head start in front of the other two, even if he has the least upside. Detwiler has the most impressive velocity, often at 91-92 with his two-seamer, with the ability to bump it up into the mid-90s, but he’s been unable to find much success.
At this point, my guess is that Detwiler will be the one out of the rotation at the beginning of the season, but there are certainly many options to weigh. What do you think the Nationals’ rotation will look like in three months?