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Sunday, August 09, 2009

Why should I care about Alex Rios?

Posted by Dan Novick
A Google search for "Alex Rios waivers" results in over 65,000 hits overall. Switch over to Google News and you get 680.

Why?

Why is the media and the blogosphere covering this story like he's the second coming of Lou Gehrig? With the amount of press it's getting one can only conclude that (A) Alex Rios is the second coming of Lou Gehrig, or (B) Alex Rios is the first player ever to be claimed on waivers and this is actual news. Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLB Trade Rumors has had a Halladay-esque thread on the subject today, with another one up tonight by Mike Axisa, of River Ave. Blues fame, for reader discussion.

People won't stop writing about Alex Rios (I had to be fair there and include friend-of-THT Jason from IIATMS). I sincerely hope he's either traded or revoked by the Blue Jays today, just so we can stop reading about it. The White Sox, run by GM Kenny Williams, are rumored to have claimed Rios. Williams has long drawn the ire of of sabermetricians for his sometimes-curious moves, but I have to agree with him here:

"If these things get out on a daily basis, boy, it’s going to be a heck of an August around here in terms of how many players you claim and how many you don’t claim. It will make your head spin if you follow each report."
[snip]
"A lot of players getting claimed every day. Why is this a big deal?”

My point exactly.

But what if he is traded?


While I'm talking about Rios here, I might as well consider the possibility that he will be playing for another team in a few days. What might that new team be getting, in Rios? He's not having the same kind of year he had the last two seasons, but he's still having a pretty good year and is still a pretty good player going forward.

This season, he's hitting .262/.316/.423 in 475 plate appearances, which includes 14 home runs. With an average UZR in the field, his numbers are definitely down from where they were. He's been worth just one win above replacement so far, which prorates to about 1.5 wins over a full season, compared to 5.5 wins in 2008, 4.6 in 2007, and 3.3 wins in 2006. The most notable difference this year for most baseball fans has been his offense. He's been slightly below average this year, with -1.7 batting runs (park corrected version). The last three years he's been between 12 and 25 runs above average.

I don't think he's "lost it" just yet. ZiPS projects him to be worth 3.7 runs above average the rest of the season in 198 at bats. Let's call that his "true talent level." Prorated to a full season of about 640 at bats (what Rios usually gets), that's about 12 runs above average at bat. Keep that number in mind.

Since starting in 2004, Rios has been worth a total of 68 runs above average in the field, according to UZR. Despite missed playing time due to injuries and such, that's worth an average of 13.6 runs per year. In true talent, he's probably around 5-10 runs above average. Let's be conservative here and say he's a +5 run fielder going forward. He plays primarily right field, so you have to dock him 7.5 runs in positional adjustments over a full season. Then to scale his value versus replacement level instead of average, you add in 22 runs over a full season as well.

Add all of that up and Rios, who is right in the middle of his prime, is projected to be worth 31.5 runs above replacement. A three-win player like Rios on the free agent market would command somewhere between $12-$15 million per year in the short-term. Did I mention that Rios is making an average of $11.7 million over the next 5 years, and the Blue Jays hold a 2015 option for $13.5 million? In other words, Alex Rios is a bargain. The Blue Jays shouldn't be looking to dump his salary on the waiver wire. They should be looking to build around this guy for the duration of his valuable contract.

Dan Novick is a lifelong Yankees fan, and still gets the chills every time Enter Sandman plays from the Yankee Stadium speakers. He welcomes comments and questions via e-mail.


Comments

Shawn said...

Because there is a storyline here.  The Blue Jays have been complaining about the contracts of Rios and Vernon Wells almost since they signed them.  Now, with a waiver claim, they can be rid of Rios’ contract in a stroke of a pen.  Will they put up or shut up?  Stay tuned.

Posted 08/09  at  07:53 AM
Chuck said...

No, it’s not the Blue Jays that have been complaining about the Rios’ and Wells’ contracts, but the fans and the media.

Why is this a story? Because despite being told ever blessed year that ever blessed player goes on waivers every blessed August, the fans and the media act like they don’t know this or understand why it is happening. Hence, like the phoenix rising from the ashes, a whole lot o’ nothing becomes a story. Or a non-story, as is the case.

Posted 08/09  at  08:02 AM
Jason @ IIATMS said...

Because there’s $70 million remaining on his contract.  Because all we have heard is “my team can’t take on additional contracts”.  Because the hottest buzzwords are “payroll certainty” and “financial flexability”.

It really has little to do with Rios, per se.  He’s a fine ballplayer but not worth his contract.  In this climate, his contract is a bit pricey.

The Jays, as an organization, would probably be sad to see him go, but thrilled to be out from under those long term obligations.

Posted 08/09  at  09:39 AM
Nick Steiner said...

Rios is actually very much worth his contract, as he is a 3-4 WAR player most years, and his contract pays him like a 3-4 WAR player:

http://www.tangotiger.net/salary2008.html

One can only conclude that A) The Jays are putting too much stock in 1 season, in which Rios’ BABIP is .40 points lower than his career mark, or B) They don’t properly value defense, from which Rios derives much of his value. 

I assume that most of the articles about him are either from other teams who are excited to get a good, and not overpaid player; or from pissed of Jays fans who don’t want to see a good player traded for a bag of balls.

Posted 08/09  at  11:07 AM
J. McCann said...

He is arguably worth his contract NOW, to a team with a good revenue stream.  Since it is all downhill from here, for the last few years of that deal, he will cost way too much to a cheap team.

Posted 08/09  at  12:00 PM
Dan Novick said...

Jason—

But he is worth his contract. He’s (conservatively) a 3-win player going forward, as I showed. The dollars per win in 06-07 was $4.0, in 07-08 it was $4.4, this year it was still in the range of what it was in 07-08. The $12M I said in the article as the lower bound was using the dollars per win figure from two years ago. Even with the current economy, players have been paid more per win this year than they were in the 06-07 off-season. I don’t see any legitimate reason to believe he’s not worth his contract.

Posted 08/09  at  12:11 PM
Brent McNaught said...

The Alex Rios story is interesting because in the spectrum of sports trades and transactions,of which many of us spend more than a reasonable amount of time tracking, it involved the following uncommon elements all in one package:

1) A very good young player , in
his prime, secured in a multi-year deal that was not considered a “bad contract”.

2) A name that had previously not been offered up much less beaten to death by rumorists. (we were suprised by the Peavy deal but tired of hearing of him)

3) A significant post waiver deadline deal involving an impact player and an actual mystery team. Not in the vein of the typical ” Holliday is on the block and we think he’s going to Detroit, St.Louis, San Francisco, Boston or New York”. One team claimed him and we don’t know who it is.

4) Again, it came out of nowhere which is fresh.

Posted 08/09  at  12:30 PM
Dan Novick said...

Brent—

I’d really rather not pick on Jason, but this post is partially what inspired me to write this:

http://www.itsaboutthemoney.net/2009-articles/august/alex-rios-claimed.html

Posted 08/09  at  12:36 PM
James Robert said...

It’s a story because of Roy Halladay. If the Jays can jettison the Rios contract, it frees up much needed cash to offer an extension to Halladay.

Posted 08/09  at  12:49 PM
Tim Dierkes said...

I don’t get why this wouldn’t be a story, especially for MLB Trade Rumors. It’s not like there are bigger August stories that we are ignoring.

Posted 08/09  at  01:00 PM
Justin said...

It’s not a question of whether or not Rios is a good player or worth his contract based on the metrics or anything like that.  WAR and sabermetrics cannot account for a reeling economy and weak canadian dollar.  When players like Bobby Abreu and Orlando Hudson are both signed for less than Rios’ salary, it becomes a compelling story to follow. When competative, solvent sports franchises are acting like they are a half season from bankruptcy, the movement of a 66 million dollar contract when most people cant take on 600k is going to be newsworthy.

Posted 08/09  at  01:07 PM
jw said...

James, if Halladay leaves it’s because he wants to play in the postseason.  If he stays it’s because he believes the Jays can do that.  If the Jays jettison Rios (which they won’t, as the OP said he’s signed to a good contract which the Toronto media just doesn’t understand) then they are saying that they are not committed to putting a winning team around Halladay.  Why would Doc stay if they ditch Rios?

Posted 08/09  at  01:14 PM
Brent McNaught said...

I suppose it comes down to what we believe is out there for teams in free agency after the season. I don’t believe we’ll see a Rios caliber player available to the tune of 2 years/ $7 mllion per. Last year was a situation of some very unique circumstances of surplus stock and extreme market uncertainty that can not be repeated.
So it would seem that Rios’ contract was fair market value at the time it was signed and that we should see at least a partial return to those values some time over the course of his contract. If that is the case then the Jays should either keep him as a core asset of some value or pull him off the waive wire and deal him in the off season when teams are geared up to spend some money and they can get some prospects in return.
Tim, keep doing what you’re doing. You are officially my “dealer”.

Posted 08/09  at  01:17 PM
Brent McNaught said...

Justin,

The Canadian dollar was trading at 92 cents last week and the Bank of Canada has declared the worst of the recession over up here.
It’s really a question of the player’s value, not only to the controlling team, but to the rest of the league who can trade for him as well. I’m starting to believe that some team out there will be willing to deal prospects for him. One team has already indicated through the waiver claim that they are willing to take on the entire contract.

Posted 08/09  at  01:29 PM
The Real Neal said...

I had to double check something, but yep, my computer clock says August 9th, 2009.

All of this ‘Value’ analysis is done on a pre-financial crash analysis.  The market was adjusting very rapidly last year (Milton Bradley $30 for thee years in December, Bobby Abreu 1 year $5 million of Feb 12th).

“Even with the current economy, players have been paid more per win this year than they were in the 06-07 off-season. I don’t see any legitimate reason to believe he’s not worth his contract.”

Totally invalid statement.  If every player had just signed a free agent contract or an extension in February of this year, that statement would have some point.  Far and away the vast majority of contracts were guaranteed or agreed or set during pre-crash conditions. No one in this off-season is going to get a FA contract that resembles the rest of Rios’s contract for a player of his level.

Posted 08/09  at  02:14 PM
The Real Neal said...

“One team has already indicated through the waiver claim that they are willing to take on the entire contract. “

No, one team with a particularly foolish GM thinks he has blocked Rios from going to a contender with a better record, not realizing that the Jays are likely to say “enjoy”.  Right now the Jays are just bluffing trying to get some prospects out of that GM for free, because they’re not retracting that waiver.

Posted 08/09  at  02:16 PM
Richard said...

A better question is why do we care that you don’t care?  I, for one, don’t.

You’re contributing to the exact situation you claim to deplore, and we’re supposed to buy in?  If you don’t like it, write about something else and stop googling stories you pretend to be sick of…

Posted 08/09  at  02:33 PM
Dan Novick said...

Tim—

I don’t have a problem with you guys covering it, but the sheer volume of pixels spent on Alex Riod around the web baffled me.

Richard—

I was waiting for someone to make that comment. I don’t care about Alex Rios, but I do care about the story, as evidenced by this post. Nobody else had pointed out the ridiculousness of the amount of time being spent on Rios, so I felt I might as well do so. This post isn’t like the other Rios posts out there, so I don’t see how I’m contributing to the hysteria.

Posted 08/09  at  02:58 PM
stoeten said...

“A three-win player like Rios on the free agent market would command somewhere between $12-$15 million per year in the short-term,” the author writes, and then points out that, at an average of $11.7M over the life of the contract, Rios is a “bargain”.

Well, I’m sorry that you haven’t noticed, but Toronto isn’t in a position where it can afford to fill it’s roster with guys being paid market value—especially with so much of their limited payroll tied up in a player, Vernon Wells, being so extremely overpaid. That this is a story has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that Rios isn’t worth his contract as a player—of course he is, or a team wouldn’t have claimed him—it’s that he’s probably not worth his contract in Toronto, where they have payroll issues, a younger, cheaper player in Travis Snider they need to find room for, and other holes that need to be filled if they want to try to compete in the short term.

It’s hardly unthinkable that the Jays might cut bait on Rios, put Snider in RF and reallocate that money to a player who better contributes to the offence—which is the area that has plagued the team for the last several years.

Posted 08/09  at  03:26 PM
Dan Novick said...

Some stories and people I’ve spoken to have claimed that he is not worth the contract.

Posted 08/09  at  03:31 PM
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